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elleng

(130,740 posts)
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 12:51 PM Nov 2020

Why dry weather this Election Day may boost Biden.

'John F. Kennedy won the 1960 presidential election by such a narrow margin that it’s easy to imagine how history might have turned out differently. What if Kennedy had lost a key endorsement or Richard Nixon had better prepared for the first debate? What if it had rained on Election Day?

Unusually heavy rainfall dampens turnout among less reliable voters, according to a 2007 study. These voters tend to favor the Democratic candidate, particularly when a Republican is in power. Nixon needed rain to keep these voters from going to the polls. He didn’t get it.

“In 1960, for instance, it was a remarkably clear day across the entire country. Had it rained that day, we probably would have had a Nixon presidency eight years earlier,” said Brad Gomez, a political scientist at Florida State University and lead author of the study, which simulated every presidential election from 1948 to 2000 under different weather. Researchers also found that rain in Pensacola, Fla., in 2000 may have cost Al Gore the presidency.

The study lent empirical backing to a maxim of campaign politics: Republicans should pray for rain. As recently as 2012, a poll from the Weather Channel found that Barack Obama supporters were more likely than Mitt Romney supporters to be deterred by rain.

But supporters of vice president Joe Biden may not have to worry about rain keeping their voters home.

The forecast for this Election Day calls for essentially no precipitation over the Lower 48, the lone exception being some showers in the typically rainy Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, temperatures will be mild over most of the nation. Highs are forecast to reach at least the 60s everywhere except the Pacific Northwest and Northeast.'>>>

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/01/election-weather-2020/?

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Why dry weather this Election Day may boost Biden. (Original Post) elleng Nov 2020 OP
Here in Minnesota... PutGramaOnThePhone Nov 2020 #1
Thanks for the info, and humor, Grama! elleng Nov 2020 #2
Thanks for the... PutGramaOnThePhone Nov 2020 #3

PutGramaOnThePhone

(236 posts)
1. Here in Minnesota...
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:11 PM
Nov 2020

we’ve had a couple of not insignificant snowfalls and depressingly early cold weather. The snow is gone and it looks like mid sixties for at least a week, after today. Here’s hoping mid sixties and anti-trump rage, inspires a massive turnout, riding to the finish line on impressive early voting numbers. Ok, maybe sufficient Election Day turnout on top of the early voting, is a more realistic hope, but at least it looks like the weather won’t have a dampening effect.

Weather aside, I’m amazed that so many trumpists manage to get dressed in the morning without injuring themselves, and are able to find their way out from under their rocks to go to work, or whatever else it is that they do: boat sinking, monster truck parades, voter suppression, cloud shouting, or what not.

PutGramaOnThePhone

(236 posts)
3. Thanks for the...
Sun Nov 1, 2020, 02:38 PM
Nov 2020

welcome! There are so many nice, and smart, people around here. Not like over on 4chan, or 8chan where I was hanging around until the sun broke through my clouds last week - not really - I still have plenty of metaphorical dark clouds over my Scandinavian-American head, but I’m feeling a bit giddy, or maybe just lightheaded, today. As for 4chan, or 8chan, that is really, NOT REALLY.

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