The supercomputers vs the atmosphere vs climate change
I'm an avid weather nerd and by no means am I trying to trash the NHC or NOAA. These are the best professionals in the world when it comes to forecasting the tropics. Fiona is once again another storm that as pulled the rug out from under the short term forecasts.
Its been amazing the number of storms that just skirt the NE part of the Herbert box lately and get mired in that anomalously warm bath water around SE Bahamas and explode. There's another area in the NW Caribbean that's enabling storms to just do things forecasters and modeling are playing catch up to.
While Fiona will is most likely to stay well east of the US it still could effect Bermuda and the far NE parts of Canada. And with it already being a major well ahead of the forecasts 24 hours ago the potential for major impacts has greatly increased.
The US needs to watch the NW Caribbean next week. Once again a possible weak system entering an area models and forecasters have struggled with lately. I can't help but think climate change is affecting the least understood mid levels of the atmosphere more than we understand.
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