Model Envy: is the ECMWF the Best Weather Model in the World?

[question everything]

Meteorologists are drowning in data. We tap scores of weather models from around the world, looking for consistency and agreement before we issue a forecast. When models agree our confidence levels go up.

It doesn't make me happy to admit this, but we have a problem. NOAA has taken an entrepreneurial approach, with scores of models. The European Union has one model, the ECMWF. Once again it outperformed NOAA's models with Joaquin, predicting the hurricane would pass harmlessly out to sea 6 days ago. Much like Sandy in 2012 the "Euro" was superior to models from the USA, Britain & Canada.

It's not just raw computational horsepower; it's the physics within the model - and how new data is "initialized" that's different - and superior. No model is infallible, but we still have some catching up to do.

By Paul Douglas

http://www.startribune.com/cool-calm-and-quiet-model-envy-is-the-ecmwf-the-best-weather-model-in-the-world/330487751/

[NCarolinawoman]

1. My local weatherman mentions this a lot.

Time for changes to be made. It's become embarrassing.

[GeorgeGist]

2. Anecdotes by the local weatherman don't impress me much.

[Punx]

3. Uh...Yes!

As someone who looks at models every day, the Euro (ECMWF) is usually better than the US (GFS) in the long range, after say day 4 or 5.

While there are some things the NWS could do that could shift computing horsepower to the GFS such as not running the CFS (long range) forecast 4 times a day, really the solution needed is funding. But with the Republicans in charge of Congress, I wouldn't hold my breath.

In the end it is all about priorities; the cost of one F-35 would cover any needs for modeling plus here in Oregon we could get the coastal radar we need and another radar in central Oregon to cover gaps there.

All of this would have long term economic benefits, therefore there is no chance it will happen.

[DhhD]

4. Our TV Meteorologists were putting up several models when the public started asking where is the

cold, icy weather that NOAA was predicting for winter in the Dallas-Fort Worth Texas area. We had one of the warmest driest Dec-Feb winters on record. They were being accused of missing the forecast several days a week until they started showing 4 different models during their televised weather report during the news.

NOAA does needs an update.