Here’s the potential problem for Sanders

[oberliner]

Here’s the potential problem for Sanders: Success on caucus night isn’t judged by how many Iowans back a candidate. It’s based on how many “delegate equivalents” those supporters garner at their precinct caucuses. Each precinct elects only a certain number of delegates. So if a candidate’s supporters are concentrated in a few precincts, they could wind up translating into fewer delegates than if supporters were spread evenly across the state.

Interesting analysis there from the Des Moines Register that I have not seen before.

The notion that while Sanders may have the most voters, it might not necessarily translate into the most delegates due to the concentration of his supporters in a few counties where large universities are located.

From this article:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/14/sanders-could-be-hurt-by-concentration-of-young-fans/78741864/

[morningfog]

1. This isn't news. His team should be prepared across the state.

I should hope that they are.

[riversedge]

5. Will he tell the Univ students to spread out and go home to vote??? Curious how you think

Sanders is preparing for this phenomena

[morningfog]

8. You missed my point. Delegate allocation from caucuses is nothing new.

Although Sanders support in college districts is stronger, I would expect that he has put in the time and the people across the state to be ready to participate in caucuses across the state.

[tazkcmo]

2. Fortunately

Thanks to Third Way/Reagan Trickle On economic policies the diminished living standards that Sen. Sanders is calling out is very wide spread while the lucky (well positioned? connected?) few that have not suffered these past 35 years is concentrated. In short, this article is suffering from dyslexia.

[riversedge]

6. So are you denying the problem as explained by the DM Register ??

[Betty Karlson]

3. This article is based on the long debunked idea that Sanders is only supported by millennials.

Only yesterday did we see all that news about women of every age peeling away from Clinton, men of every age going disproportionately for Sanders, and so on.

All we know is that a few countries are CERTAIN to go for Sanders, as they are heavily populated by his most important demographic (men and women under 25). I don't know how that is a disadvantage for him.

[riversedge]

7. It is the delegates that are allowed no matter how many folks show up in a given area.

[Alfresco]

4. Thanks for the link. Brings some clarity to Iowa caucuses.

[Bluenorthwest]

9. And yet....Iowa 08 saw Hillary come in 3d. She's got the same base she did then. She's experienced.

Bernie is an Iowa newcomer. So she may have learned and he might be unprepared, but last time she was assured of a win and got a show, Bernie's strong supporting segments were Obama's and Edwards last time. They beat her.

Neither candidate nor any other candidate should ever assume they have Iowa nailed.

[oberliner]

12. I do think she might be in trouble in Iowa

But I also think it would not be surprising to see her lose the popular vote there, so to speak, but still win the most delegates.

[aidbo]

10. From a thread posted here in the last few days.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2016-01-12/meet-some-of-the-foot-soldiers-in-sanders-iowa-ground-game

I can't embed it, but there's a good video if you'd like to see how he's doing in Iowa.

[oberliner]

11. He does have a strong ground game

And the posting of this article is not meant in any way to denigrate Sanders or his supporters, of which I count myself as one (although I like Hillary also).

I just find it interesting that there could be a situation where one candidate has more support in Iowa but because that support is concentrated in a few counties that it might not necessarily result in winning the most delegates.