Iowa continues to lean Clinton; Nate Silver gives her 82% chance of winning IA Jan 14

[riversedge]

Whowser--the VT Gov is campaigning for Hillary in Iowa. Good for him.


Hillary for Iowa Retweeted
Ashley Burns ‏@ashleyburns316 5h5 hours ago Cedar Rapids, IA



"We've never had a candidate as ready, as able, as compassionate as @HillaryClinton" -@GovPeterShumlin of VT

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Iowa continues to lean Clinton; Nate Silver gives her 82% chance of winning IA http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/iowa-week/ … #uniteblue #p2

harryenten_light1
Harry Enten 12:05 PM | Jan 14, 2016
The Des Moines Register's latest Democratic poll also matches the conventional wisdom

DES MOINES — The new Des Moines Register poll conducted by Ann Selzer is now out on the Democratic side, and like the results for the Republicans released yesterday, it really doesn’t change our perception of the race. In the poll, Hillary Clinton is slightly ahead of Bernie Sanders, 42 percent to 40 percent, while Martin O’Malley brings up the rear at 4 percent.

The FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only forecast continues to suggest that Iowa leans Clinton’s way. She’s still at a 66 percent chance to win, as she was last night, while Sanders retains a 34 percent chance. Clinton continues to lead in the model not only because the Selzer poll has her ahead, but also because Selzer’s polls have had a fairly significant house effect. That is, they have tended to produce better results for Sanders and worse results for Clinton than the average poll. The model takes that into account — if a pro-bernie poll is showing Clinton ahead, the model thinks she must really be ahead.

In the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast, Clinton maintains a larger advantage. She’s at an 82 percent chance to win, while Sanders is at 18 percent. Clinton is in a better position in this forecast because of the many endorsements she’s earned. Moreover, Sanders didn’t really rise from the 39 percent he earned in the last Selzer poll, rather, Clinton dropped from 48 percent. Support from within her party’s infrastructure may help push newly undecided voters back into her column.....................




Hillary for Iowa Retweeted
Michelle Villegas ‏@MichelinaBelle 45m45 minutes ago Des Moines, IA

@HillaryClinton and @jimmyfallon totally killing it on snapchat today. Too good! 😂🇺🇸#Hillary2016 #boss

[Motown_Johnny]

1. NBC Nightly news just said "the newest poll was well within the margin of error"

That is a better message, on a bigger stage, than Nate.

It is only a couple weeks away now. Lets see how things play out, shall we?

[riversedge]

3. Who to vote for via Howard Dean: A visionary man VS a pragmatic woman who gets things done!

In the meantime an excellent tweet is going around.

Who to vote for via Howard Dean: A visionary man VS a pragmatic woman who gets things done! @HillaryforIA http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/1/13/1469263/-Losing-Bernie-My-Journey-from-FeelTheBern-to-HillYes#comment_58981544 #p2

[Motown_Johnny]

4. But they never say what she has gotten done

IMO. Not much

[riversedge]

5. If you believe that you are beyond help. Good bye.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. No I believe Hillary is mostly smoke and mirrors

And that her negative accomplishments far outweigh her positive ones

[99th_Monkey]

2. Feb 1st, Bernie will have a late-night snack delivered to Mr. Silver

[Bjorn Against]

6. Nate Silver's new polls plus model is ridiculous, he is throwing away his credibility

The polls out of Iowa are showing the race within the margin of error. For some ridiculously stupid reason however Silver has decided to pad Hillary's numbers by including endorsements, what he does not explain is how these endorsements will change the polling numbers in the future if they have not done so already.

The race in Iowa is neck and neck and saying "Well Hillary got more endorsements" does not change that.

[riversedge]

8. Here--something for you

[Bjorn Against]

11. Thank you, I will share some cookies with you as well.

?1444580944

[riversedge]

12. yummie. I love ginger cookies. Thanks

[uponit7771]

16. +1, I'm reading about subjective information and less data... Party infrastructure and delays have z

... To do with polling numbers

[PyaarRevolution]

9. Do Nate Silver's poll numbers include?

18-24 year old Democrats or older voters who have already participated in two primaries.

[leftofcool]

14. Actually, yes

You do understand that many 18-24 year olds will be voting for Hillary?

[cali]

10. Shummy the multi millionaire who cheated his neighbor out of his property

And no that is not sour grapes. I have no problem with Leahy and other prominent Vermonters who endorsed her, but I really, really don't like my Guv and neither do most Vermonters. He has to be one of the most imperious, arrogant politicians in the country

[karynnj]

13. That might be the most consistent reaction to any politician that I have seen

I have yet to meet even one person who has said anything positive about him. I know many people - including people who are progressives, who voted for his Republican opponent (thinking he could not win, but hating Shumlin.)

He nearly lost to a Republican challenger with no real political experience and who had to let his campaign manager go in September because he could not afford him. http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/politics/2014/09/15/milne-campaign-manager-split-months/15688579/

[cali]

15. Years ago, when he first ran I was having dinner

with a former legislator and a couple of journalists. I said I was really excited to be voting for him. I g it an earful.

[karynnj]

17. I am so glad that for years before we moved here, I read your posts on VT

It helped - if only to make us realize that there was always the chance that whoever you were talking to would actually know a politician or at least people close to them.