Poll: Bill Clinton has NO effect on Hillary's support

[99th_Monkey]

Poll: Bill Clinton has no effect on Hillary's support
by Peter Sullivan * January 16, 2016 * The Hill

A majority of the public says that despite his marriage to Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton has no effect on who they will support in 2016.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Saturday found that 58 percent said the former president has no effect on their support. Twelve percent said he makes them more likely to support Hillary Clinton, and 15 percent said less likely.
The indifference is even stronger among Democrats. Seventy-three percent say Bill Clinton has no effect on their support.

Bill Clinton, a legendary retail campaigner, has been ramping up his presence on the campaign trail recently. But Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump and others have attacked him, tying his past sex scandals to his wife's campaign.

A majority of the public also said, though, that Clinton’s past sexual misconduct “made no difference” in the current race, according to the Reuters poll.

The numbers were higher among Democrats, with 68 percent saying it made no difference.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/266146-poll-bill-clinton-has-no-effect-on-hillarys-support

[Drunken Irishman]

1. Well that headline is just not true...

It says right in the poll that 27% say it either makes them more likely or less likely to vote for Hillary. That's nearly 30% of voters who say he may have an effect on who they support - so clearly he has some effect and not no effect like the headline says.

[99th_Monkey]

2. Not my headline, but here's Peter Sullivan's Twitter Account address for you.

I'm sure he'd be happy to "correct" his headline for you.

https://twitter.com/petersullivan4

[Drunken Irishman]

3. Didn't say it was but do you agree with the headline?

30% is a sizable amount regardless.

[99th_Monkey]

4. No. The headline is generous. Your math is fuzzy

58 percent said the former president has no effect on their support. Twelve percent said he makes them more likely to support Hillary Clinton, and 15 percent said less likely. "

So Bill's NET effect is negative (-3%), which is what you get when you subtract the "less likely"s from the "more likely"s, they virtually cancel each other out, but actually Bill has a net -3% effect, i.e. slinghty worse than if he didn't campaign for Hillary at all.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. My math is 100% correct.

President Clinton's effect does not have to be positive. He can bring a negative effect too - but it's clear nearly 30% of voters are saying he will have SOME effect, whether positive or negative, on their support. So, it makes the headline completely wrong. Now if you want to debate whether it'll have an overall positive/negative effect, then fine. But that's not what the headline said.

[99th_Monkey]

6. If you want to quibble about if Zero effect is "completely wrong" when the net effect is -3%

have at it .. You have Mr. Sullivan's twitter account, which I already gave you.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. It's not a quibble.

An effect is an effect regardless if it's positive or negative. In this regard, Bill has both a positive and a negative effect on Hillary - not a zero one ... with a net negative effect.

[99th_Monkey]

8. I think you've stated and restated you opinion. We simply disagree re whether it's a big deal

or not. <- I'm thinking not.

[Drunken Irishman]

9. I just think it's a misleading headline is all...

[99th_Monkey]

11. Yes. you've made that quite clear. Over and over and over. You done yet?

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Are you?

[Motown_Johnny]

10. 12% more likely and 15% less likely.

Nearly no effect.

I think the argument is that the overall effect is roughly a net zero because the positive and negative cancel each other out.


It would seem that he actually creates a 3% negative effect, but this could easily be within the margin of error.


The headline should say "Almost" no effect.

[99th_Monkey]

12. Exactly, but that seems over the head for some who insist on quibbling about it

The headline is actually generous, in not pointing out the -3% net negative effect.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. It has almost no net effect.

But no, it has an effect. Nearly 30% of voters say their vote is being impacted by Bill Clinton. That is literally having an effect.