Eight Factors Worrying Clinton Backers Before Iowa

[demwing]

By Alexis Simendinger
January 14, 2016

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/01/14/eight_factors_worrying_clinton_backers_before_iowa_129315.html

Suddenly, a genuine race for the Democratic presidential nomination is before voters, and the two unlikely rivals are expected to lock horns during the party’s next televised debate Sunday in South Carolina.

Here are some factors Clinton supporters said they worried about this week:

1. Iowa’s progressive voters rejected Clinton before. The former New York senator finished third in the caucuses in 2008...

2. Iowa voters are just now beginning to firm up their selections. Clinton’s former 20-point lead in Iowa polls has evaporated...

3. When you’re known, you cannot be discovered. Clinton is intimately familiar to most of Iowa’s savvy voters...

4. Iowans, voting first in the nation during presidential years, delight in the suspense of a real contest...

5. Clinton is confronting demographic hurdles, which Sanders has exploited. The challenge? Voters under age 45 say they favor the Vermont senator by about a 2-to-1 margin...

6. Clinton is not a perfect fit for her party’s revolutionary mood in 2016...

7. ...The strategy to undermine Sanders may not shore up her own vulnerable ratings on trust and authenticity...

8. Why does Clinton want to be president? ...Her “closing argument,” as some political analysts call this pitch to voters to land the job, remains chalky...

There's more details on each of the 8 factors at the source article, but it boils down to this - going into IA, Bernie may not have cemented a lead, but he HAS grabbed the spotlight, the energy, the momentum, and the advantage. The only thing left for him to do is to win.

[cantbeserious]

1. When We Stand Together - No Citizen Need Settle For The Lesser Of Two Corporate Evils - Go Bernie Go

eom

[demwing]

2. thank you cantbeserious

Your consistent progressive message makes you our own DU Bernie surrogate!

[cantbeserious]

3. As Bernie Would Say - It Is About Us - And A Better America - For All Citizens

eom

[roguevalley]

22. I will seriously buy the books written on this campaign when they come out

this doesn't even count the problems with the Foundation doing pay for play.

[ybbor]

25. I love your reply!

You rock!

[uponit7771]

4. If Sanders shows up in SC then there should be concern, Sanders winning in wheelhouse states ...

... wont be a shock or surprise just frustration.

Sanders recent anti Obama statements are fair game for states like SC... and there wont be enough cross over to make up for the Obama coalition that will be turned off of his anti Obama stances

we'll see

[draa]

6. That's the dumbest shit I've ever read.

So you're saying that because he criticized a black president other black people won't vote for him. That is what you're claiming right with that "fair game" statement. That's just pathetic. Seriously.

Just more racist dog whistles from the Clinton camp.

[uponit7771]

7. Calling Obama weak and proffering a primary opponent isn't just criticism, it's wingerish over

... the top hatred of Obama that'll turn off many dem votes who have an 80%+ positive view of Hillary and or Obama.

NO one is talking about racial dog whistles but you but since you mentioned it Sanders still hasn't caught up in polls with POC, I don't see his recent statements helping either.

[draa]

9. Bullshit. If that was the case nobody would be supporting Sanders at all.

No, what you implied is, because the black vote is important in Carolina, bashing a black president will turn off black voters and they won't vote for him. That's fucking racist unless you're black. Are you black? If so then carry on. If not then delete that race baiting shit in your post.

[uponit7771]

11. Strawman at best... and yes I'm black, I've been turned off Sanders partly since he picked a random

... black rap artist for credibility with the black community and associated himself with the Obama hater Cornell West after claiming Obama should be primaired at one time.

I don't think Sanders has been the leader he's been frustrated at for others not being.

If Sanders shows up in SC then this is a race, if not Sanders is toast in the general even if he wins the primary... his numbers among POC will be like Kerrys

[draa]

12. That's cool, at least you speak from a position of understanding.

The reason I called you out was in 2008 Clinton implied black voters couldn't get Obama elected and she was the electable candidate.

Bill was trying to do two things with this statement: linking Obama to Jackson in voters' minds and suggesting that Obama can't attract enough white voters to get elected President, so Hillary is the "electable" Democrat. His was seeking to pigeonhole Obama as the "black" candidate -- not only as a matter of pigmentation but also as a matter of voter appeal.

The Clinton camp has a habit of using race and skin color. That's why I may have over reacted. But even still, complaining about the president doesn't matter. And if our party is that petty then it's a lost cause anyway.

As far as Killer Mike? I'll admit I hadn't heard of him (don't follow that scene anyway) but now that Shaun King is on board Sanders will be fine. And I honestly believe black voters aren't that petty. In fact, I know they're not.

Edit: sorry, I didn't include the link to that quote so I'm adding it here.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-dreier/white-voters-deserve-more_b_83604.html

[uponit7771]

16. you're talking about Bill Clinton and not Hillary, I'm not going to conflate the two and Bill...

... brought up a good point that was well talked about; that there wasn't enough black people to carry Obama to the WH but that he didn't mention there WAS enough white people along with blacks that make up the Obama coalition.

It wasn't just POC and never has been

Shaun King is another random black person like biggah, they're both known in their ponds but not outside of it communities of color

Carlos Santa is known, Samuel L is known... Cornell West is known... Tyler Perry is known....

[draa]

20. Good god, I think I'm done here.

If he "forgot" to mention white voters, as you claim, why didn't he clear the record after he said it. He had many chance to add "white voters" to clarify his statement. He didn't so revisionist history just won't work in this case.

He never intended to mention white voters. That's a fact. The most polished politician of our time doesn't "forget." I'm not saying Bill or Hillary is racist, but they have no problem using race baiting language to get elected.

Anyway, good talking to you and once again, sorry for the earlier issue. Thanks. eom

[roguevalley]

23. explain how demanding sanctions against Iran the day Obama ends them isn't the biggest

finger possible. I was aghast that she did this, then I remember she loves war. Sanders didn't. She did.

[JRLeft]

31. I'm black too, and you're riding with the woman who ran a racist campaign against Obama.

Something is wrong with that. Hillary is a corporate sellout to boot, but you're backing her anyway. Why?

[uponit7771]

32. I understand 08 to be desperate politics not something she does daily, I don't think HRC is teh ...

... Satan and nothing that been posted so far from republicans or the rest of the Hate Clinton Crew is even credible that she's close to something that will NOT progress this country

Along with Sanders can throw no stone at the "sell out" part on issues that are important to me so that's a wash, no matter how much SBS squad scream Sanders is a better person overall his record is public, printed and is not showing a 180deg not Hillary... he's just picked different vices.

Seeing Sanders has NOT proffered how he's going to get any of his unicorns past a historically gerrymandered GOP congress why take a chance on him?

On the other hand I proffer that if he mentions that he's not going to be able to get anything past the historically gerrymandered GOP congress without a literal mirrical happening I think his enthusiasm would slide into the ocean.

My take

[JRLeft]

33. The idea is to use voters to apply pressure on congress, not to do alone.

Your assumption was he would just show up and we expect everything to work out. No we don't, but guess what by your logic Hillary won't accomplish shit either.

This is about a movement people power. If we sit back and allow things to continue with hindrance nothing will change ever.

[uponit7771]

34. Congress doesn't answer to voters and hasn't for the last 4 years, they spent 24 billion on a shut..

... down that didn't do a damn thang and then won more seats.

The GOP congress doesn't answer to the people who vote for them, part of their scream this go around, why in the world would they work with people who don't vote for them?!!?

They wont, Obama admin has shown this over and over again...

Sanders blames Obama and calls him weak... this is at best disingenuous

Hillary isn't promising unicorns to garner support and I don't expect her, past the New Deal 2.0... I expect her to progress the country slowly... pick some good USSC folk and build on what Obama has started.

Not tear it down which Sanders this weak has proffered in his "course correction" comments

The congress doesn't care about 2 trillion people showing up at their door step unless its with guns... with bullets in them... and people willing to kill some of the congress people... outside of that they've shown over and over and over and over again they don't give 2 damns what people think.. they're gerrymandered, they don't have to.

Sanders shows us how he's going to get past these people then he's in, otherwise he's not worth taking a chance on... I'm looking for more than just anger.

[JRLeft]

35. People power there are a lot of people who do not vote. Increase the voting block.

You've just made the case for not voting at all.

[uponit7771]

42. Do you know how much the voting block has to be increased in areas that are gerrymandered to win?

If not then I'm disappointed in Sanders message cause he's not informing anyone of the challenge that is faced with congress.

I can vote for a person I think is going to get something done instead of promising unicorns and then blaming something or someone else knowing the situation in congress is horrible.

Also, there could be something.. something that can be done if Sanders has a reasonable plan then put it up...

If not then is chide against Obama and the "status quo" is disingenuous

[JRLeft]

44. I do know, I also know that turnout has been extremely low.

Why most people do not feel represented, corporate democrats do not represent the people, they represent oligarchs and corporations.

[demwing]

37. "has NOT proffered how he's going to get any of his unicorns past a historically gerrymandered GOP"

And you think Hillary will have it any easier? That's fucking rich!

[uponit7771]

41. No, I said she's not promising unicorns either... big difference

[JRLeft]

45. She's promising the continuance of the rightward path.

[uponit7771]

49. This is false on its face

[Marty McGraw]

10. Links Please?

( '-')

specifically the one where he is calling Obama weak?

Not finding it in a general search. can you help?

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=sanders+called+obama+weak&t=ffsb

[uponit7771]

29. Google has the best taxonomi of any of the engines (link inside)

http://thinkprogress.org/special/2011/07/22/277124/bernie-sanders-primary-obama/

SANDERS: Brian, believe me, I wish I had the answer to your question. Let me just suggest this. I think there are millions of Americans who are deeply disappointed in the president; who believe that, with regard to Social Security and a number of other issues, he said one thing as a candidate and is doing something very much else as a president; who cannot believe how weak he has been, for whatever reason, in negotiating with Republicans and there’s deep disappointment. So my suggestion is, I think one of the reasons the president has been able to move so far to the right is that there is no primary opposition to him and I think it would do this country a good deal of service if people started thinking about candidates out there to begin contrasting what is a progressive agenda as opposed to what Obama is doing. […] So I would say to Ryan [sic] discouragement is not an option. I think it would be a good idea if President Obama faced some primary opposition.

[demwing]

8. 2 Things - First, let's talk about SC

No one expects Sanders to win SC, so if he loses

But SC is an open primary state, and only Bernie has the cross over appeal to pull enough new voters to make a difference. The bar has been set so high for Clinton, that if Bernie pulls within 15 points, it would be considered a sign of his strength. Single digits makes SC a draw, and < 5% is a virtual win. If Bernie actually won SC, the Clinton campaign would probably not recover.

Plus, should Bernie win IA and NH, the dynamic in SC will change overnight. A win is not out of the question.

Next, let's talk about those "wheelhouse" states. Why are these states less affected by Obama criticism?

SC never went for Obama in the GE, and in fact, hasn't voted for a Dem since Carter.

Obama carried New Hampshire twice, and Kerry won the state in 2004! Obama also carried IA twice, and the state went with Gore in 2000. So again, why would the Obama-supporting states go for Bernie despite remarks he may/may not have made about Obama, but Obama-rejecting SC suddenly draws a line?

Finally, what makes IA and NH fit into Sanders comfort zone, but not Hillary's?

It sounds like you're trying to diminish the voices and value of these two states, why is that?

[daleanime]

26. +1

[uponit7771]

30. Yeap, if Sanders shows up in SC and gets close then game on but IA and NH wont change that

... because they're his wheel house states.

Can Sanders get beyond those demographics? Polls so far say hell naw...

[demwing]

36. So all you do is repeat yourself?

you don't respond, because you have no response.

You've got nothing.

[Hortensis]

39. Any of us could announce with

if-I-say-it-it-will-be-so conviction that Hillary will carry all needed states in the primary and then go on to do the same in the general, then go on wipe the floor with Congress, no matter its composition, as she conducted her own personal revolution.

But that would sound stupid, wouldn't it?

[uponit7771]

43. Relative facts bear repeating, you got anything past Sanders losing big in SC? tia

[draa]

5. I've been thinking about #3 for a while.

My theory. Clinton had peaked before Sanders ever entered the race. Her support likely wasn't going any higher than it was at this time last year. After a decade of running for President her support was mostly fixed.

That said, there was only one place for Clinton's polling to go and that was down. I expect to see even more drop once the 2 primaries are over. Especially if she loses both.

[libdem4life]

13. I agree. Momentum is momentum, regardless of which direction it is going.

Add to that...she's her own worst enemy. I'm sure she has a few more "surprises" up her sleeve that are likely to enrich Bernie's coffers and list of donors.

[draa]

17. Yep.

In 2008 her campaign struggled as well but it was with a consistent message. She was all over the place and never focused on a single issue. Considering most people who vote are single issue voters that was a mistake.

Fast forward to 2016 and she's having the same problem. She can't seem to focus on one platform item and hammer that point home. Now, contrast that with Bernie. His message is constant and it's effective. "The Rich Are Screwing You" He doesn't need to say anything else. He can damn near win it all just by repeating that message.

It was the same message he's used to get elected multiple times. It works at all levels, too. Love to see people finally support a great candidate.

[Hortensis]

40. IMO, you're setting yourselves up for a nasty

disappointment. It does look as if Bernie is going to give Hillary some real competition. She won't be able to relax at all.

But to imagine that he's basically already won? Beyond ridiculous and foolish. I say this for those who want the truth but might be carried away by all the hot air on this sub-forum.

Hillary has several large advantages over Bernie. Hillary has the support of MOST Democrats, and primary voters have a strong pattern of voting for the person they consider most electable. Fact is, Bernie may currently seem more exciting for many who are bored by a two-year campaign, but at this point Hillary's unquestionably still more electable. Notably, everybody "knows" Hillary. Bernie has not yet faced serious attack, and when he does every accusation is going to be new to most of the electorate. Expect a lot of reallys and I-didn't-know-thats -- new doubts will have to be overcome quickly, if he can. That's what all the money's in elections for.

Also, a real biggie (!), they are both about to leave these 2 little very white states, one of them Vermont's less-blessed twin, and go campaign in the rest of America.

There are many other factors not being discussed by Bernie supporters who want to pretend they just don't matter.

So, for Bernie supporters, strongly recommend crossing fingers until after Super Tuesday. Then uncross, work the cramps out, and recross through the various primaries through June. Then uncross again, rub, and recross because on July 25 comes the Democratic National Convention and the delegates vote.

Feb 1 Iowa (15 days away)
Feb 9 New Hampshire
Feb 20 - 27 Nevada and South Carolina
Mar 1 Super Tuesday in 13 states plus American Samoa

[draa]

46. Blah, blah, blah. tl:dr

I didn't read it because it's the same crap you folks have been spewing for 6 months now. About how flipping great Hillary is and how Sanders is just too "something" to win. And so far? You've all been full of shit.

I'll write-in Sanders if Hillary wins the nomination. My family will too. After 32 years in this party I will no longer support the shit candidates you folks think we deserve. If she wins she will do it without help from me and many others so good luck, you're going to need it.

[Hortensis]

47. "I'll write-in Sanders if Hillary wins." From your keyboard.

[draa]

48. Yes.

I'll vote for who I want. You vote for who you want. That IS how our system is designed so if you don't like it then change it.

I didn't serve my country to have people tell me how I should vote. Or tell you how to vote for that matter. That's our choice and it's generally a personal matter between candidate and voter.

People trying to shame others into voting for a terrible candidate, which is likely where you were going, just to keep people like the Bushes and Clintons in office, is what's wrong with our political system. It sucks and I refuse to play.

[paleotn]

14. I like #6....

6. Clinton is not a perfect fit for her party’s revolutionary mood in 2016.

Her message doesn't match the mood of the party or the country in general. It's like she's pulled 2008 out of mothballs, with no regard for whats happened since and it's just not resonating. Cozying up to Big Finance and giving lip service to Dodd Frank isn't going to cut it. People are pissed with the status quo, but she's running the same old milk toast, status quo, Republican light Dem campaign that's failed miserably in every election cycle since 2008.

The only good thing for Clinton is the Republicans are so fucked up right now a department store mannequin could beat them in the general.

[Ferd Berfel]

15. #6 - she's not in the ball park in fact she represents status quo

[demwing]

18. Im big on #8

Why does Clinton want to be president?

I saw another DUer (can't remember who to cite, sorry!) describe it like this:

Bernie wants to be President because he sees it as the ultimate expression of public service.

Hillary wants to be President because she sees it as the ultimate achievement of her career.

[840high]

21. Yes - it's her obsession.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

19. #8 is one that seems important...

Sanders has many goals - Clinton more of the same

[roguevalley]

24. I personally believe she wants to triumph over her enemies and pay back who she

can. It would be a triumph for her to win after the impeachment humiliation. She is doing this for herself while Bernie is doing it for all of us. HUGE dif for me.

[demwing]

50. You think this is about the Clinton legacy?

Yeah, that's not hard to believe. Rehabilitation for Bill, historic milestone for Hillary.

[roguevalley]

52. i struggle with the clinton legacy. its not actually very shiny right now

[DisgustipatedinCA]

27. Honesty should be one of those points. It's a real issue. It's a real problem. It's a recurring one.

[demwing]

38. that would be #7

7. ...The strategy to undermine Sanders may not shore up her own vulnerable ratings on trust and authenticity..

.

[Paka]

28. K&R

GO BERNIE!

[Warren DeMontague]

51. why does Clinton want to be president? I don't think she's wanted anything else, for a long time.

The question for voters is, why do we want her to be president? What is the compelling argument she is making as to why we want her to be President?

The only two answers she seems to be able to give the voters is "because I'm Hillary Clinton" and beyond that "because I'm not a Republican".

I think her campaign would do better if she could come up with something a bit more compelling.