2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum84% of democrats have positive view of HRC VS only 58% for SBS
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/13/poll-views-of-trump-carson-and-bush-dim-as-christie-and-cruz-rise/Democrats' stability
Clinton continues to receive overwhelmingly positive ratings from Democrats nationally, with 84 percent rating her favorably and 15 percent unfavorably almost identical to her 83-14 split in November. Sanders is rated positively by a 58-31 margin also very similar to a 54-25 margin in the previous survey.
Clinton better-liked among Democrats nationally (middle of the page)
Q: Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of... (Results among self-identified Democrats)
Clinton
84% Favorable
15% Unfavorable
Sanders
58% Favorable
31% Unfavorable
National impressions have the potential to shift after early nomination contests in Iowa and New Hampshire; polls show Sanders and Clinton in a tight race in Iowa, while Sanders has an apparent lead in New Hampshire. It's unclear how much Sanders appeal will extend beyond these early contests, including states with large African American and Hispanics populations who have been more supportive of Clinton this cycle.
Sanders appears to have made some gains with African-American, Hispanic and other non-white Democrats, however. By 51 percent to 32 percent, more non-white Democrats offer favorable than unfavorable impressions of Sanders, compared with a 36-29 favorable-unfavorable split in October and 41-31 margin in November.
Clinton still outpaces Sanders across all demographic subgroups of Democrats most notably, non-whites (92 percent favorable) and liberals, with whom 88 percent rate Clinton positively and 74 percent say the same of Sanders. But Clinton's advantage in favorable ratings is clearest among moderate and conservative Democrats, among whom 80 percent give Clinton favorable marks but only 41 percent rate Sanders positively.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)We will need Independents in the general election and they DO NOT have a favorable view of HRC.
And, there are more of them than there are of either Dems or GOP (individually, not combined).
artislife
(9,497 posts)Gman
(24,780 posts)Or very much if any of the youth vote once moderate Republican sand indies flee to Hilary like the devil from holy water from the GOP nominee.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)You think there are moderate Republicans who will switch to Hillary Clinton of all people, or sit out with her on the ballot. After 2010, 2012 and 2014.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)are tightening and they are all losing their minds.
hobbit709
(41,694 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)hobbit709
(41,694 posts)draa
(975 posts)Too bad for her that Independents, first time voters, and cross over Repubs get to vote in our primary. That's where her problems are. Certainly not within the party it's self.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)draa
(975 posts)I also don't know the polling firm so don't hold me to their reputation. It's also about 4 months old (I'll look for a newer poll when I get the chance).
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/9/17/1422117/-Poll-of-Independents-Sanders-45-Trump-26-HRC-9
I don't understand why you want a poll of whom they support though. Sanders has been a independent for 35 years so he's probably not lacking for support among that group. I really doubt they'd support Clinton in large numbers or other wise they'd be Democrats already. Or, as many likely have, never left the party in the first place.
Speaking of which. Democrats have lost 6% of their voter base since 2008. Not quite as bad as the GOP (8%) but it's damn close.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/180440/new-record-political-independents.aspx
edit: I provided the link to the loss of voters in each party.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)Xipe Totec
(43,888 posts)period.
End of statement.
She's a fine candidate and I'm sure she would make an excellent President.
SBS is also a fine candidate and I'm sure he would make an excellent President.
All this battle of the pollsters is getting to be a bore.
truedelphi
(32,324 posts)It is those who are tired of big money politics. They are sick unto death of lobbyists running the country, both at the WH level and in Congress.
Yes, some forty percent of all voters are no longer considering themselves loyalists willing to "help" their party out by voting against their own interests.
Historically speaking, campaign managers from the past knew the importance of reaching this class of voters. Even back in the Nineteen Ninety's when the Clintons first tried to get in office, their campaign manager stressed the importance of reaching the non-party-loyalists. And this was when that group of voters was only around thirty percent! Bill Clinton succeeded in gaining the WH because he had these cross over voters.
So anyway do the math here:
84% of 36% (the number of those who are "D" party loyalists) EQUALS only 30.44% of the voting public
Whereas if we had the figures on where Bernie is, with regards to the cross over voters, we would see that his vote appeal surpasses hers.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)... hope they don't engage while he's prez cause they'll be disappointed in the results.
Conservatives have raised a blind filibuster on the Obama angenda how in the world are we supposed to believe that will come down when SBS is elected prez
truedelphi
(32,324 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)... being the status quo even this work calling his agenda as a "course correction" cause we're on the wrong course now!?!?
Sanders has never been the leader he calls others to be
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,708 posts)That's better than our great president and pretty good in an era where no politician is popular. Surprisingly Trump is 35/57 in that poll, not good...
IMHO, forty percent is Trump's floor. It might also be his ceiling.
The general election could be a repeat of 64 where a imperfect Democratic candidate (LBJ) walloped the Republican (Goldwater), just by making him look bat shit crazy and unfit for the presidency.
Beacool
(30,247 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)... many SBS supporters would be happy to vote for her the rest of em will post on DU ... lol
Beacool
(30,247 posts)Good to know that this board is a bubble and that they preach to their own choir.
PyaarRevolution
(814 posts)BOTH of my parents are Democrats and have been since JFK and don't like Hillary. They prefer Bernie and share most of the same sentiments I do about her. They like and defend Obama despite the many criticisms I've had on him in regards to the NSA, TPP, etc.
There are more people out there in the Democratic party who are NOT fans of Hillary. Perhaps some of them in that poll are lying and saying they like Hillary because they're afraid to say otherwise, that they might be accused of sexism for being critical of her.
bowens43
(16,064 posts)Of the 15 or 20 Democrats I regularly interact with at least 9 of them will NOT vote hillary in the GE if she manages to get the nomination.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)Say they will not vote for Hillary in the GE is NOT a real democratHell you.got republicans who hate Trumps guts but say they will vote for him if he's there nominee.They know how to stick together through thick and thin Democrats love eating here own
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)litlbilly
(2,227 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)... HRC is liked
Number23
(24,544 posts)I guess.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)Number23
(24,544 posts)propel this really clear myth, really clear LIE that most Democrats don't like her. It's a shame.
sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)that HRC will win the nomination, then the Democrats
will lose in the GE. It is obvious that the establishment
does not care about this, it has been obvious for months.
No matter what Bernie might do to encourage his
supporters to do, at least 40% of indy voters will
refuse to vote, as well as the majority of the
millennials.
There is a limit for these folks. They will continue
their movement, but it is an illusion to think that
Bernie's momentum will be transferred to HRC.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)No Democrat or Independent will sit out this historical election. I know that is what you bernie folks wish would happen, but it won't. The fringe left who swear they won't vote for a Democrat no matter what are the only ones sitting out. We won't need them to win.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)... pushed, not a lot of facts to back it up
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)sadoldgirl
(3,431 posts)Bobby's momentum could never be transferred to
McGovern. It does not work that wishful thinking
way.
I have attended a lot of Bernie groups here, and
there is no interest for any of them to vote for
HRC. A lot of them are indies, and their aim after
the nomination -should Bernie lose - is to start a true
upheaval in the local democratic establishments
from the ground up.
Many of them see Bernie as a temporary leader,
but to them the issues are the important part
of the elections, and those are the issues that
made Bernie the popular figure he is.
oasis
(49,328 posts)At least we won't have to be subjected to their rants during Hillary's GE campaign.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)win out.
oasis
(49,328 posts)We're making some progress here.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)get ready for a president Trump or Cruz.
oasis
(49,328 posts)I like Hillary's chances.
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Independent voters do not think so highly of her.
99Forever
(14,524 posts)A one trick pony that doesn't even do the trick well.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)JRLeft
(7,010 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)JRLeft
(7,010 posts)uponit7771
(90,302 posts)... and they don't
JRLeft
(7,010 posts)Trump is the repuke nominee.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)He is a newcomer to the party.
uponit7771
(90,302 posts)riversedge
(70,084 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)For Sanders and have yet to talk to the first Democrat who is for Sanders.