One year from today.

[Alfresco]

Madam President

[cali]

1. Something about not counting your chickens. Wise advice.

[Hortensis]

2. From FiveThirty-Eight: IS THE BERNIE BUMP REAL?

"Nate Silver: Indeed. That, along with her support from the party establishment, is why Clinton is the heavy favorite. But at what point does the price on Bernie become attractive to you?

If I could get him at 20-1 (implying about a 5 percent chance of winning), I’d take it.

Harry: Yes. I think that’s fair."

"Micah: Are you all surprised that Sanders has gotten this close?

Clare Malone: I don’t think it’s really all that surprising. I actually think, as crazy as it might sound, that Donald Trump and Sanders are trying to appeal to similar forces fomenting in the American population; people are frustrated with the way things are going, they are skeptical of big institutions (banks!), and they want to see a different kind of leadership. Of course, Trump’s way of courting this is instilling fear in people, and Sanders’s way of courting this is righteous, idealistic governmental revolution. They’re both populist movements, albeit with undertones of authoritarianism in one.

Nate Silver: I don’t think it’s that surprising. First, as we’ve been saying for six months now, the first two states happen to be pretty favorable for Bernie.

Second, there are a lot of people, including the media and Democratic interest groups, who have a strong incentive for there to be a competitive Democratic race, or at least some semblance of one. To get a little more wonky still, the median voter theorem would imply that two-candidate races should be at least reasonably close."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-the-bernie-sanders-surge-real/

[cali]

4. Not sure what your point is.

[Hortensis]

6. Sure you are. I'm agreeing that it's

a mistake for people on this forum to count their chickens.

[cali]

8. As I have never counted my eggs, and have explicitly

said on multiple occasions that Hillary is the odds on favorite, addressing your post to me seems silly.

[Hortensis]

14. Ignoring the reality that Nate Silver's group feels

Bernie's chances of winning the primary are still extremely small is silly.

But sure. We've all of us just been discussing the weather here on GDP. Cold outside, huh?

[kenfrequed]

20. The problem is...

Just as much of their prognostication includes the same spin kind of language that the Clinton campaign is using. "Practical" versus "Idealistic," the analogizing of Bernie to Trump etc. Enten is particularly grating and all of this just comes across as beltway wonkishness.

[Hortensis]

24. Endorsement points: Clinton 458, Sanders 2

Again from FiveThirtyEight.com:

The Endorsement Primary, weighted endorsement points*, updated 1 day ago
Hillary Clinton 458
Bernie Sanders 2

* Representatives 1 point each
Senators 5 points each
Governors 10 points each

Agree, spin is a problem, Ken. But no one spins us harder than we can spin info to suit ourselves -- if we indulge. This reality means something. Analyses come up with different answers, but spin won't make it go away any more than wishing will.

[TM99]

28. So Nate has moved away

from the numbers to the made up rubric that if you have more endorsements right now before a single primary vote, then your chances of winning are phenomenal?

And y'all wonder why he is being dismissed with such laughter!

[Hortensis]

29. Nate Silver's extremely respected in his field.

Of course, no statistician is 100% right, but he's come far closer than most, which is why all campaigns read everything his organization puts out and absolutely no one is laughing at him.

Really, TM99. Come on.

[TM99]

31. Why should I 'come on'?

He failed miserably with his predictions about the UK 2015 election. He said that Sanders would peak and flat line at most at 30% in all polls and was wrong.

[Hortensis]

33. Now, really. He never said Bernie would

"flat line at most at 30% in all polls." He thinks most polls are pure bunkum and, of course, junk polls are often written to give enormous leads and fails to condidates, so he'd never claim low results for "all polls." Go examine the analyses by experts for yourself. That particular site's free, and they often discuss ways Bernie might pull ahead, paths to victory for him.

[TM99]

34. Do you actually read his site or just talk about

it 'authoritatively'?

In August he said the surge was over and he would top out at 30%.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-bernie-sanders-surge-appears-to-be-over/

He was wrong. He then admitted it and said well even if the surge isn't over, he won't win Iowa. Clinton is still the predicted winner there.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-new-hampshire/

And yet again he was wrong. He justifies it by going out of statistics into psycho-social analysis.

Well, Sanders doesn't have enough endorsements so that will stop his surge. Wrong again.

Well, Sanders has no real AA support. Wrong again, he has risen steadily.

Well, he doesn't have enough female support. Wrong yet fucking again, he leads Clinton in women 18 to 45.

Silvers is not doing well in the last year. I would argue it is because numbers alone can not predict human psychology. He has entered into my field, and he is not qualified to speak on that. As long as he sticks to the numbers game, he might get his mojo back. Might!

[Hortensis]

35. I know you want Bernie to win, and he could. But

if it happens it will be in spite of silly delusions and wishful thinking.

[TM99]

36. You can't address

the actual quoted errors and failures on Silver's part so as usual, your type resorts to insult us Sanders supporters as being naive, wishful thinkers, and full of silly delusions.

Thanks for letting me know who you are and how you think.

[Hortensis]

37. Theirs are hardly the only flaws in analysis

here, but note that they are continually and eagerly accepting and analyzing new information.

[Alfresco]

3. I saw the future. :-)

[Hortensis]

5. Likely so. :)

[bowens43]

27. if thats our future we're screwed.......

[Motown_Johnny]

7. Testifying ???

I think she would take the 5th.

[Cassiopeia]

9. or fail to recall.

[MissDeeds]

12. +1 n/t

[coyote]

23. Lol!!!

[marble falls]

10. Don't hold on to your and Hilliary Clinton's illusions too long, we have a Teapublican...

Congress to fix up.

[Donkees]

11. Caption this: Hillary slaps chief justice at Sanders innauguration

[Nedsdag]

13. Is she waving goodbye?

Because that isn't John Roberts.

I've seen better photoshops.

[Alfresco]

15. One year from today. Bernie catches train to Senate office. :-)

?w=492

[Armstead]

22. At least he knows what public transport looks like from the inside

[Hortensis]

30. What a great picture of him, actually. If he is

in the Senate next year I am comfortable that he will be fighting with the White House to enact change he and Hillary both want.

[pinebox]

16. Quick Bernie, they're posting bad pics on DU!

Save us!

[Alfresco]

17. "They misunderestimated me" :-)

[pinebox]

18. I think it's more like this

But what do I know?

[Punkingal]

19. What a great statement!

[Alfresco]

21. Or could be like this...

[pinebox]

25. Oh look! A meeting of people who supported bad trade deals!

I rather like this one myself.

[bowens43]

26. hills going to be slapping people???? Why?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

32. You should have posted a "Gag Alert".