New Iowa Poll: HRC up by 9, but...

[book_worm]

Bernie has gained ground.

A new Monmouth poll in Iowa finds Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders, 48% to 39%.

Last month’s poll had Clinton beating Sanders 55% to 33%.

https://politicalwire.com/2016/01/21/clinton-still-leads-in-iowa/

[ViseGrip]

1. Bernie is ahead, and he's got the momentum. Hillary pollsters are now finnessing polls.

[Renew Deal]

5. Conspiracy!

[Thenewire]

7. Sander supporters

are sounding just like Ron Paul zombies.

[restorefreedom]

13. absolutely. an earlier poll has bernie within the moe..

as soon as they saw that, the orders went out. time to change the polling "methodology."

and now she is ahead again. i find that

[Jarqui]

2. The demographics are so slanted to Hillary, it makes me wonder who commissioned it

Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (KBUR) Clinton 48, Sanders 39, O'Malley 7
Clinton +9

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/IowaDemCaucusPollJan2016.pdf
has 32% 65 and older when Dem primary exit polls in Iowa show 22% in the past
has 72% 45 and older when Dem primary exit polls in Iowa show 40% in the past

Those two age groups favor Hillary so the demographics are way off

[HerbChestnut]

4. Even with those demographics

This poll is very encouraging for Bernie. A 13 point swing in his favor is never a bad thing.

[draa]

6. That's right.

Especially from the same polling firm. At least the methodology stays consistent.

I said she'd have to pay for her turn away from our party and I'm still convinced that's true.

[Jarqui]

10. I tried to figure out the demographics effect

to project what the poll should be from their break out numbers - adjusting in the proper demographics but I can't.

I don't have time to go into it but the poll doesn't seem to add up - the breakout numbers don't jive.

[Funtatlaguy]

3. Thanx for pointing out the change.

It is always important to ONLY compare changes from the same polling organization.
Cross organization polling references do not necessarily give a clear trend since all polling organizations use different methods.

As for Iowa, the GOLD standard - that is, the one that most often correctly predicts the current situation and the correct outcome the weekend before the caucus - is
The Des Moines Register poll.
It comes out on Saturday, January 30 .....that is the poll to bet on.

[draa]

8. Thanks. I'll watch for that.

If you're on DU when it comes out you could post an OP in GD;P for everyone. Even if it's not favorable to Sanders it would be good for all to see. Thanks.

[Funtatlaguy]

9. Oh, believe me it will be everywhere.

That newspaper does a great job of disseminating it.
In fact, you can always check here. They have great stories on the race too.
Desmoinesregister.com
Their polls are released at 6am est, generally.

[KingFlorez]

11. There is a difference between Monmouth College and Monmouth University

The newest poll is from Monmouth College, not Monmouth University, so we are talking about two different outfits.

[firebrand80]

12. Every poll that's good for Hillary comes with a "but" nt