2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNational and State polls through Super Tuesday (from RealClearPolitics.com)
Last edited Thu Jan 21, 2016, 04:27 PM - Edit history (2)
Some of the polls for the Super Tuesday states are rather old and for others there is no good polling data. However, what is available will give you an idea what the candidates face.
National
1/4-1/18 Clinton 51.2 Sanders 38.0 O'Malley 2.2
Clinton +13.2
Monday, February 1
Iowa (7 polls) 52 Delegates
1/2-1/19 Clinton 47.0 Sanders 42.3 O'Malley 5.4
Clinton +4.7
Tuesday, February 9
New Hampshire (5 polls) 32 Delegates
1/4-1/18 Sanders 51.6 Clinton 39.0 O'Malley 2.8
Sanders +12.6
Saturday, February 20
Nevada caucus (2 polls) 43 Delegates
12/5-12/17 Clinton 66.0 Sanders 26.0 O'Malley 2.5
Clinton +40.0
Saturday, February 27
South Carolina (2 polls) 50 delegates
10/3-12/27 Clinton 50.0 Sanders 30.5 O'Malley 0.5
Clinton +19.5
Tuesday, March 1
Colorado caucus (1 Poll) 70 Delegates
11/11-11/15 Clinton 55 Sanders 27 O'Malley 2
Clinton +28
Georgia (3 polls) 116 Delegates
8/5-10/26 Clinton 60.0 Sanders 17.0 O'Malle 1.7
Clinton +43.0
Massachusetts (3 polls) 116 Delegates
10/16-11/22 Clinton 56.5 Sanders 27.0 O'Malley 3.0
Clinton +29.5
Oklahoma (2 polls ) 42 Delegates
10/19-11/15 Clinton 38.5 Sanders 16.5 O'Malley 1.5
Clinton +22.0
Tennessee (1 Poll) 76 Delegates
11/11-11/23 Clinton 48 Sanders 28 O'Malley 3
Clinton +20
Texas (3 polls) 252 Delegates
9/8-11/8 Clinton 52.0 Sanders 21.3 O'Malley 1.3
Clinton +30.7
Virgina (1 Poll) 110 Delegates
11/4-11/9 Clinton 63 Sanders 27 O'Malley 5
Clinton +36
Alabama () 60 Delegates
(no polls yet)
Alaska Caucus ( ) 28 Delegates
(no polls yet)
American Samoa caucus ( ) 10 Delegates
(no polls yet)
Arkansas ( ) 37 Delegates
(No current polls)
Minnesota caucus ( ) 93 Delegates
(no current polls)
Vermont 26 Delegates
(no polls yet)
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Much as I'd like it if Alaska had 28 delegates, we actually only have 18.
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)snoringvoter
(178 posts)and I bet a poll done in Colorado will show that narrowing as well.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)no way that spread is anything close.
also very skeptical of co and nv. and iowa appears to have already tipped bernie.
but, pollsters gotta eat.....
CajunBlazer
(5,648 posts)I wish there was up to date polling in all of the states, because there is no way this contest is going to decided in the first 2 or even the first 4 states unless Hillary were to take all 4 which, at this point at least, isn't going to happen.
In my humble opinion too much emphasis is placed on Iowa and New Hampshire which are atypical for both the Democrats and the Republicans. For those two state there is a new Democratic and Republican polls every other day, where as the polls for Texas, with it huge number of delegates and scheduled for two three weeks later, are too old to be really reliable. Same for Virginia and other large states in the Super Tuesday primary. Other states with more delegates than either Iowa and Hampshire in that same primary have no polls at all.
As you say, the pollsters have to eat, and right now for better or worst the money for polls is in two state that don't represent the nation.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)i also don't like how a few early states always get a bigger influence on the nominating process. this race is going to go on for quite a while, and the pollsters will continue to be mystified.
gonna be interesting, for sure
Cal33
(7,018 posts)the lead of the first two states to help make up their minds for them could be a
natural consequence.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)and switch it so its not always iowa and nh
MineralMan
(146,286 posts)primary events done after IA and NH. Those will provide a better look at how those states are looking. Right now, the polls are too old to accurately reflect voter sentiment.
I'm sure we'll be seeing those poll results within a week after the NH primaries. It will be interesting.
Response to CajunBlazer (Original post)
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