New CNN Iowa Poll: Bernie 51, Hillary 43, Martin 4

[HerbChestnut]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html

Have a look at that!

[OKNancy]

1. Today's Monmouth and Emerson Polls both show Hillary up by 9. n/t

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-college-kbur-douglas-fulmer-associates-23541

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_542e7f5df4e14162851de1c77b0df5f4.pdf

[Dawson Leery]

2. This poll has an MOE of 6%.

[OKNancy]

3. I saw that

[Dawson Leery]

9. Suddenly corporate CNN will be trustworthy.

Though not trustworthy enough to host a Democratic town hall. See how that works?

[KingFlorez]

12. It's the same sort of hypocrisy Republicans have

[Fawke Em]

36. Nope. Some of us know polls that lean heavily on lanelines are passe.

[pnwmom]

52. Some of us need to keep up. Monmouth uses both cell phones and landlines.

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from January 7 to 10, 2016 with a statewide random sample of 413 New Hampshire voters drawn from a list of registered Democrats and independent voters who participated in a primary election in the past two election cycles or voted in both the 2012 and 2014 general elections, and indicate they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary in February 2016. This was supplemented by a sample of new voters who say they are likely to register and vote in the Democratic primary. This includes 290 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 123 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list and non-voter sample). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

[mhatrw]

67. LOL. And what were the results of this Monmouth University New Hampshire poll? nt

[roguevalley]

37. the more she slags bernie the better he will do. Its only affirming

his statements about the establishment doing whatever to protect their income and power. She's between the devil and the deep blue sea because of it.

[uponit7771]

38. Don't those high MOE polls get ranked lower by 538?

[KingFlorez]

6. Seems that CNN is the outlier

[HerbChestnut]

7. The most important part is the movement from poll to poll

Bernie has made significant gains in both the Monmouth and CNN polls. I don't know about the Emerson poll.

[KingFlorez]

11. There was no movement in Monmouth

I've posted more than once that Monmouth College and Monmouth University are not the same outfit, but it was ignored. Today's poll was from Monmouth College, not Monmouth University.

[mhatrw]

65. Stop lying. There was movement from +15 for Hillary to +9. nt

[KingFlorez]

68. It's two different polling outfits. Please read.

Monmouth University and Monmouth College are two different polling outfits, which is what I was pointing out. I was not lying. We have to see another poll from Monmouth University, so we have no trend line from them as of yet.

[mhatrw]

74. Compared to the last poll from the same outfit, Sanders is up 34%!

http://www.kbur.com/2015/07/06/iowa-democrats-prefer-hillary-but-sanders-gaining-in-kburmonmouth-college-poll/

Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton holds a more than 3 to 1 advantage over her closest competitor, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in a KBUR-AM, Burlington, IA, and Monmouth College (IL) Midwest Matters poll of 1,000 likely caucus goers.

Clinton has the support of 63% of Democrats in Iowa compared with 20% for Sanders. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley is at 5%, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb is at 3% and former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chaffee is at 1%. Another 8% of respondents are undecided.

From 43% behind to just 9% behind. At this rate, Sander's will be at least 10% ahead by the time the caucus convenes!

[KittyWampus]

69. You going to apologize for accusing the DU'er for lying?

[mhatrw]

72. No, because that DUer is lying

And so was I. The previous poll by the same polling group showed Hillary ahead by 43%! So Bernie has gained 34% on Clinton according to this polling group.

http://www.kbur.com/2015/07/06/iowa-democrats-prefer-hillary-but-sanders-gaining-in-kburmonmouth-college-poll/

Former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton holds a more than 3 to 1 advantage over her closest competitor, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders in a KBUR-AM, Burlington, IA, and Monmouth College (IL) Midwest Matters poll of 1,000 likely caucus goers.

Clinton has the support of 63% of Democrats in Iowa compared with 20% for Sanders. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley is at 5%, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb is at 3% and former Rhode Island Governor Lincoln Chaffee is at 1%. Another 8% of respondents are undecided.

“The results of the poll fit in pretty well with what the rest of the polls are showing,” said Robin Johnson, host of “Talking Politics” on KBUR and part-time lecturer at Monmouth College, “In that Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead in Iowa. Bernie Sanders is the main competition, and he’s risen to 20% of the vote so far. I think it’s interesting that he does better among men than he does women at this point and so, he’s got a ways to go but he’s had a pretty good start so far to his campaign.”

There is a wide gender gap in the support of Clinton and Sanders, with Clinton ahead of Sanders among women by 69% to 14% while her lead among men is at 52% to 31%.

[draa]

76. I noticed that earlier today as well.

It's amazing to watch really. She shouldn't have turned away from SPHC. That was a gut punch to people who been promised for years. Hell, now they won't even try.

Health Care is where she took her biggest hit in Iowa. Down 38% on who do you trust?

"A big change in CNN's Iowa polls: Clinton was judged to be best on health care 63-31, now it's Sanders 51-45."
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/01/21/1473134/-Clinton-s-Healthcare-Attacks-Leaves-Mud-On-Her-Face

I'm just stunned that she would attack Sanders' on what is one of his strongest points and popular with 81% of the party. It's almost as if she's trying to throw the election.

[Fawke Em]

35. Monmouth uses robo calls, which means they can't call anything but landlines.

Landline polls favor Clinton.

I'm not worried.

[pnwmom]

49. Wrong. They use live interviewers on land lines and cell phones.

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/9f985b33-23bc-4c9f-961b-7edf1ab902d8.pdf

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from January 7 to 10, 2016 with a statewide random sample of 413 New Hampshire voters drawn from a list of registered Democrats and independent voters who participated in a primary election in the past two election cycles or voted in both the 2012 and 2014 general elections, and indicate they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary in February 2016. This was supplemented by a sample of new voters who say they are likely to register and vote in the Democratic primary. This includes 290 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 123 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Final sample is weighted for age and gender based on state registration list information on the pool of voters who participate in primary elections. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter list and non-voter sample). For results based on the total sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

[PotatoChip]

57. Both the Monmouth College and Emerson College Polls were robocalls.

The one you are citing is from Monmouth University (and looks great for Bernie in NH, btw)... not Monmouth College. Nancy's 2 polls are Emerson College and Monmouth College.

Both of Nancy's polls were robocalls, otherwise known as IVRs. Here is some info on them:

IVR Surveys—Robo Calling

Some pre-election telephone polls use no live interviewers at all and rely exclusively on
recorded voices. These are called IVR polls, for interactive voice response, or sometimes
robopolls in the vernacular. Here an automatic dialer calls households and a prerecorded
voice asks questions and asks respondents to enter the number that
corresponds with the survey response options given them. Because IVR polls are unable
to dial cell phone numbers unless they are hand-dialed and added to their landline
samples, they are unable to accurately represent the voting public. Some do add cell
phones dialed separately from those dialed automatically, but some add only a trivial
amount, largely for cosmetic purposes than for truly increased coverage. Again, the
number of cell phones added to landline interviews is a fair an indicator of quality; if cell
phones do not make up at least one-third of a telephone sample, it may not be worth
reporting.

IVR polls can be problematic even when cell surveys are added to the mix, given that
there is no respondent selection procedure within the contacted landline household. viii
Given who tends to answer landline telephones, IVR polls tend to be disproportionately
composed of older women, who are likely to have a different response pattern and may
have a particularized response to the two polled candidates than a cross-section of the
public as a whole. Such polls use no selection technique when contacting a household,
but instead try to compensate for the lack of within-household selection by weighting
the resulting data to demographic targets. Not having a random selection within the
household compromises a fundamental tenet of probability sampling and should
require an accounting and justification before being reported.ix

http://www.aapor.org/AAPORKentico/Standards-Ethics/AAPOR-Code-of-Ethics/Election-Polling-AAPOR-2015-primary_cz120215-FINAL.aspx

[mhatrw]

73. Stop lying. That was not the Iowa poll we are talking about.

And that far more accurate poll that you keep disingenuously citing showed Sanders trouncing Clinton.

[Helen Borg]

40. Hillary is so toast!

[Left Coast2020]

82. Iowans are true down to earth people.

That's how they like their presidential candidates-down-to-earth and authentic. Not plastic and rehearsed.

Iowa voters will go with Bernie.

Nothing plastic about him or his record. They see this up close and personal.

[mhatrw]

64. Both of these polls show Sanders closing the gap.

You can't reach Sanders supporters by robocalling their nonexistent landlines.

[mikehiggins]

4. OH boy! Batten down the hatches, brothers and sisters

they are going to go absolutely crazy now.

[Skwmom]

5. I DO NOT trust anything to do with CNN. n/t

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. HA! BAM! Take that!

Go Bernie!!!!!!!!!


PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[Truprogressive85]

10. Look at that

Sits back and drinks my hot chocolate

[bkkyosemite]

13. She is already on another attack. Iran........wow..........just wow

[Fawke Em]

41. She's trying to "shake some sense into Iowans."

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-foreign-policy/index.html

[WillyT]

14. WOW !!!

[KingFlorez]

15. 2 out of 3 polls had Clinton leading by 9 today

So, this is quite an outlier.

[Dawson Leery]

19. kick

[jeff47]

20. Or not.

All IA polls are almost always wrong. As in, the actual result lands outside their MoE. For example, most polls showed Clinton winning or close in IA in 2008. They definitely did not show her coming in third.

Polling models work somewhat well for primary states, but no one has a good model for caucus states.

[Kentonio]

84. Ann Selzer does for Iowa.

[jeff47]

85. Except she missed Clinton as third place. (nt)

[reformist2]

46. If Hillary is up by less than 10, she loses. The dynamics of the caucus favor Bernie.

[DefenseLawyer]

16. It's hard to poll Iowa

Since it's much easier to answer a poll than to actually go to a caucus. Of course on the one hand, Sanders appears to have more enthusiastic supporters and that might make them more eager to get out. (Then again few had more enthusiasm in Iowa than Howard Dean and we saw where that got him). On the other hand, a lot of Clinton supporters are older, established Dems that have been caucusing for decades so they may be the ones that can be counted on to come out. This is why you gotta love politics.

[draa]

17. She turned her back on single payer, what the hell else was going to happen.

You don't attack something that 80% of the party wants. You don't lie about a Democrat. Those were stupid moves really. smh

[99th_Monkey]

18. Holy Crap!!!!!!! I knew this was happening, but it's awesome to have it confirmed.

Woot! Huzzah!!

Now the M$M definitely needs to stop calling Hillary the "front-runner" because she is NOT
one anymore. Not now.

[thereismore]

21. "Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders hold solid leads in Iowa"

Damn. Just damn. Hold on to your skivvies!

[n8dogg83]

22. I think the biggest story of this poll is that this is a 26 point swing in Bernie's favor since...

their last poll which came out in early December. That's a yooooj swing! No wonder the Clinton campaign is nervous.

[SheenaR]

23. As a put in another thread for my first post

Monmouth COLLEGE and Emerson College have a grand total of 3 polls ever to their names as recorded by Project FiveThirtyEight. So keep touting those. Meanwhile CNN/ORC received an A- rating for their work and accuracy

[link:http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/|

[thereismore]

24. Outside of MOE of 6%. However, Hillary leads among 2008 caucus goers 55-38%.

The sampling was over 2002 people called on the phone, presumably half of them were republicans. So, about 1000 democrats, of whom only 280 were "likely caucus goers". We need the turnout people!

On edit: it seems possible that they used only the 280 likely democratic caucus goers for the estimate. That's why the 6% MOE. This is not a very good poll, but it will make headlines and endless pundit chatter tonight.

[morningfog]

26. Here's to the 2016 caucus goers coming out for Bernie!

[HerbChestnut]

29. Fortnuately for Bernie

This was a poll of likely caucus goers, which means CNN figured out a way to include people likely to caucus this time that didn't in 2008.

[HerbChestnut]

28. I saw the standard error as 2%, but I could be wrong.

If it's 6% then this poll is a statistical tie. You have to subtract 6% from Bernie's total and add 6% to Hillary's. If they overlap, then it's a tie.

[Dawson Leery]

42. She still leads among likely voters.

[Robbins]

25. Here is all you need to know why clingtons and establishment are in full panic mode

bernie is ahead In Iowa.she is on verge of 2008 like defeat In Iowa.

Lying on bernie monday night may not help her.Iowa now likes bernie more on health care.

Attacking bernie on health care may come back and bite her in the ass.

[morningfog]

27. What's left? She can't get traction hittin him on guns and healthcare. The hammer and sickle?

[CharlotteVale]

30. K&R

[fbc]

31. I'm not quite sure if....

[img][/img]

or

[img][/img]

[SheenaR]

32. In the last hour

The betting markets have shifted as well...

With Bernie's odds now 8/5 to win Iowa.

Hillary is still the favorite, but the margin has slimmed just in the last hour alone. I always check these as they are a good predictor

[Eleanors38]

33. The poll may be pretty loose-jointed, but something is concerning Hillary...

if her attacks on Sanders are increasing. Attack mode is not an indulgence for front-runners.

[HassleCat]

34. Who can afford to lose a close one?

The answer is easy. Sanders. He was never supposed to be close. Sure, he could win New Hampshire, the cuckoo state where the Republicans are all socialists, etc. etc. But the Clinton powerhouse would deal him a fatal blow in Iowa, where party loyalty tips the caucus system heavily against Sanders. If he was stupid enough to keep going, South Carolina would seal the deal. Now all Sanders has to do is come close in Iowa, and he gets a new lease on life. If he wins, the whole ball game changes dramatically. Clinton absolutely must knock him out in South Carolina, and it's looking less and less likely every day.

If Clinton can come out of Iowa with a 60/35/5 win, she's good to go. Anything closer than suggests she's vulnerable, and her whole deal is appearing invulnerable.

[Duval]

39. Great news! K&R

[tomm2thumbs]

43. B L A Y A M ! ! ! ! !

and a couple of Bernie bounces to boot.

[thereismore]

44. Only 280 likely democratic caucus goers were sampled. That's a small sample. nt

[Lordquinton]

60. A previous poll that was hailed as the Sanders death knell

Had 375, so glass houses and all that.

[thereismore]

62. Well, let's be real. It is a small sample. But the race

is extremely close in IA, that much is clear. Go Bernie!

[ViseGrip]

75. Her poll samples showing her ahead are terrible! Here is the sample:

Flawed to the point of absurdity

71 percent of those polls were age 45 and older.
Only 15 percent of those polled were under the age of 34.

Folks, you can't make this stuff up.

54 percent of those polled were women
46 percent of those polled were men

Monmouth really knows how to fuck up polling--to the point where what they're doing is closer to making waffles than polling.

Whatever. Enjoy your Hillary is winning "poll".

[DaveT]

45. Yes, but this poll was Pre-Sense Shaking

Wait til we see the effects of that.


Seriously, however, if pre-primary polling nominated candidates, Hillary would be finishing her second term this year.

[PDittie]

47. At least she won't come in third

so maybe 2016 really isn't like 2008.

[HerbChestnut]

48. Last second O'Malley surge!!

[HerbChestnut]

50. Or she tanks to 2%. Either one will be fine.

[in_cog_ni_to]

55. Yeah, I'm cool with either of those too!

Works for me!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[PennsylvaniaMatt]

51. Absolutely awesome!

He is amazing, plain and simple!

Everyone has to keep up the good work! Now isn't the time to rest!

[avaistheone1]

53. Fantastic! Go Bernie Go!!!!

[NorthCarolina]

54. BOOM Goes the Dynamite

[Ferd Berfel]

56. No wonder HIllary came out whit seek and said Polls don't mean anything!

She's feeling the Bern!

[MrChuck]

58. Pedal to the metal!

DO NOT let up.

Give it the gas and GO BERNIE GO!

[Ken Burch]

59. HRC supporters will be saying the poll doesn't count

because they didn't include voters from Wall Street in the sample.

[restorefreedom]

61. cnn headline: sanders soars past clinton in iowa

that says it all

[merkins]

63. Rolling Thunder !!!

BERN
IT
UP

Simply taking the lead is not enough. Our strength is the momentum and we must keep it up.

[alcibiades_mystery]

66. Y'all the FAVORITES now... better win though

[HerbChestnut]

70. It's still very close in Iowa

Hard to call either candidate a favorite at this point, though the momentum is certainly in Bernie's favor.

[alcibiades_mystery]

71. Bernie the favorite fah sho

Better win tho.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

77. Camp Hillary pays a fortune to polling firms so when they see this they panic.

[left-of-center2012]

78. The polls are all wrong

A Clinton spokesman was just on CNN saying polls showing Bernie ahead are incorrect;
poorly done.

[Old Codger]

79. Of course

Anything that shows the truth will be incorrect to that bunch....eternally flawed, until ooops day after and WTF happened....

[INdemo]

80. off course they are

And polls with Hillary ahead are accurate with a margin of error of .000000000001?

They attack,attack.attack and nothing works.
They call in two Right Wing advisors the attacks backfire...
Seems like they would learn..

Go Bernie !!

[Indepatriot]

81. Glassceilngsnatesilversocilismtaxraisergunnutracistsexistoldwhiteguyhammersicleunicorns....

[Le Taz Hot]

83. I love it!

The idiot media keeps saying Bernie is behind in Iowa an neck and neck in New Hampshire. No, he's not. He's AHEAD in Iowa AND New Hampshire!

[99Forever]

86. I don't put much trust in polls.

However, the trend is pretty clear. Bernie is going to win Iowa. By how much is the only real question now. I personally think it will be big.

FEEL THE BERN