Sanders called the notion that he must win Iowa's caucuses against Hillary Clinton "mythology,"

[BigBearJohn]

DULUTH, Minn. (AP) — Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders said Tuesday the prospect of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg mounting an independent presidential campaign "speaks volumes about the state of American politics," noting with a populist flair it might mean two of the three contenders would be billionaires.

"If the general election came down to (Republican Donald) Trump and myself and if Bloomberg decided to jump in, two of the three candidates would be multi-billionaires," Sanders said in an interview with The Associated Press. "And by the way I'm the one who is not the multi-billionaire."

In a wide-ranging interview, Sanders called the notion that he must win Iowa's caucuses against Hillary Clinton "mythology," but appeared to lower expectations about his challenge to the Democratic front-runner in next Monday's lead-off caucuses.

"If I lose Iowa by two votes and end up with virtually the same number of delegates, is that a must-lose situation? Is that a tragedy? No," Sanders said aboard a charter flight en route to a rally in Duluth, Minnesota. "We are running a campaign that will take us to the convention and I'm very proud of the kinds of enormous gains we have made."

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_56a7e4a2e4b04936c0e89143

[Skwmom]

1. It was put out there by Clinton and the Corp Media to spin anything as negative to Sanders. nt

[yardwork]

4. Hillary and the "Corp Media" made Bernie say this? Or what are you saying?

I don't understand what you're saying. All I've seen here on DU for months from Bernie supporters is the goal of winning Iowa. Now suddenly winning Iowa was never the goal, just a myth put out by Hillary?

Say what?

[redstateblues]

5. They must have forced Bernie to say he will raise taxes too

Not sure how they did it. I'd love to know.

[yardwork]

6. I heard that. "They" tricked him during the Town Hall meeting.

I don't know how Bernie is going to deal with China if he can't handle a Town Hall meeting in Iowa. I guess it's mean and unfair of us to expect this of him.

[mcar]

7. EvilHillary can do anything

Mind control, media that totally hates her control... There is no end to her perfidy.

[Bernin4U]

10. Goal? Yes. Must win? No. You're not really that clueless.

Bernie will indeed win IA, but that doesn't make it a must-win for him.

That he's pointing out the fact that it's not a must-win for him, is being spun as him trying to lower expectations. Spun as if he doesn't expect to win it.

Got it?

[NastyRiffraff]

14. Is the "It" you're speaking of

the direct quote from Sanders? Oh yeah, the all powerful Clinton campaign put the words into his mouth and forced him to say them.

Jeez, this is getting beyond ridiculous.

[John Poet]

29. In my opinion, if Hillary can't win Iowa by at least ten percent,

it's a LOSS for her.

After all, she's the "inevitable" one-- should be easy for her.

[baldguy]

2. Trying to break it to his supporters that he's going to lose Iowa?

[workinclasszero]

19. Sure do look like it

to me

[yardwork]

22. I'm still wondering about this.

[reformist2]

23. You never brag that you're going to win. It lowers your voter turnout.

You always say that it's going to be close, and that you need every vote.

[yardwork]

3. Hillary and Bernie will gather approximately the same number of delegates in Iowa.

This fact doesn't seem to be well understood. Democrats don't have "winner take all" primaries. Hillary and Bernie are neck and neck in Iowa - no matter which wins, they will each be awarded about the same number of delegates.

Therefore, "winning" Iowa or any of the smaller states is not particularly important.

Bernie has much bigger problems looking ahead. He might win IA and NH, but I think he is unlikely to win any southern states. I don't see a path to Bernie winning the nomination. The numbers are not there.

[Gothmog]

9. Sanders would need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates...to even "be on track" to stay competitive

According to one of the experts for the Cook Report, Sanders needs to win big in Iowa to have a chance http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/sanders-needs-more-than-a-win-in-iowa-to-beat-clinton

As David Wasserman wrote in the Cook Political Report last week, "98 percent of pledged Democratic delegates will come from states with lower shares of liberal whites than Iowa and New Hampshire." That is a big problem for Sanders who has yet to prove he can expand his base....

Yet, even then, delegate allocation is proportional, which means that Sanders would have to begin winning by major margins to make the race a serious contest.

Wasserman estimates that according to his models, Sanders would "need to win 70 percent of Iowa's delegates and 63 percent of New Hampshire's delegates" to even "be on track" to stay competitive with Clinton in later states where demographically speaking, Clinton has shown she has more support. And in a states like Florida and South Carolina, Clinton leads in recent polls by 36 points and 19 points, respectively.

"It is not merely the delegate process that favors Hillary, it is the voters. She has earned the loyalty and support of communities of color, women, the LGBTQ community, environmentalists, and other vital parts of the Democratic coalition," says Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a Clinton supporter. "Bernie's coalition - so far - is more narrow. It is impressive in its energy and its passion, but it is, I think, more narrow."

I have not seen any projections or polls that show that Sanders being close to these numbers.

[Gothmog]

8. Iowa is a must win for Sanders

Sanders has to win in Iowa to be viable http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/01/11/bernie_sanders_could_win_iowa_and_new_hampshire.html

What would not change, though, is that Clinton would remain the clear favorite for the Democratic nomination.

Even if Hillary staggers out of New Hampshire with her second loss in as many contests, she’ll still have the same massive advantages she enjoys today: the campaign and super PAC cash, the ground game, the endorsements, the pledged superdelegates, and the general support of a party establishment that won’t soon forget that her challenger is not technically even a part of the Democratic Party. An unexpected loss in Iowa and a less surprising one in New Hampshire wouldn’t change that.

She’d also have a chance to get back on her feet—and fast. Consider what comes next: Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), two significantly more diverse states than lily-white Iowa and lily-whiter New Hampshire, and two places where Clinton currently enjoys massive leads in the polls. According to the RealClearPolitics rolling average, Clinton holds a 20-point advantage in Nevada and a whopping 40-point lead in South Carolina. March brings better news still for the former secretary of state, starting with a Super Tuesday slate that includes friendly territory in the form of southern states like Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. The rest of the month, meanwhile, includes several big, delegate-rich contests that she won eight years ago during her battle with Barack Obama: Michigan, Florida, and Ohio. Yes, Sanders could have the momentum this time next month, but it’ll be on him to to find a way to keep it as he heads into significantly more challenging terrain than Iowa or New Hampshire, which were always going to offer his best chance at pulling off an early upset or two.

None of this is to say that Clinton has the nomination locked up already. She doesn’t. But if Iowa and New Hampshire are must-wins for anyone, it’s Sanders. Hillary can—and likely would—survive a slow start and still be the one standing on stage at the Democratic National Convention when the balloons come down this summer. Bernie, though, has no such margin of error.

Sanders is doing well in states with 90+% white voting populations and these states are not sufficient for Sanders to win the nomination. There are four states where Sanders is polling well in: Utah, Iowa, New Hampshire and Vermont. Texas has almost twice the number of delegates of these four states combined

[tammywammy]

13. I agree, Sanders must win both Iowa and NH

It gets complicated. If he loses Iowa and wins NH then he has to have a strong (competitive race, even if he loses) showing in Nevada and South Carolina, so he'll remain viable through Super Tuesday.

Losing Iowa, winning NH and getting shellacked in Nevada and South Carolina and it's over on Super Tuesday.

Losing Iowa and NH, he must be close in Nevada and South Carolina, but I think it'll be tough for him to win enough delegates on Super Tuesday.

Losing the first four, and it's over on Super Tuesday.

BTW, I think he'll definitely win NH. Iowa is still close, I don't think there's been enough polling in Nevada, and I don't think he can win South Carolina.

Ehh, we'll see won't we.

[yardwork]

18. This is very interesting. Thank you.

This is the kind of analysis that we used to have a lot on DU. We need more of it again.

[LoveMyCali]

21. Thank you

for this.

[restorefreedom]

11. bernie is in this for the long haul

i heard a reporter say today he will fight all the way to the convention if he had to.

playing the long game.

iowa is important, but is not the be all end all for any candidate imo

[yardwork]

12. Reporters say a lot of things.

[Walk away]

15. Well, if anyone knows about "Mythology", Bernie does!

[lunamagica]

27. LOL!

[George II]

16. Even a "win" in Iowa (and the forcasters are still giving Clinton a 70% chance of winning)....

....for Sanders isn't really that much of a win. The two will finish 2 or 3 or maybe 4 delegates apart. Same thing in New Hampshire - they'll wind up 2 delegates apart.

So even if Sanders wins both (not likely), he'll come out of them with a 5-6 delegate lead. Clinton will make that up and more in Nevada and South Carolina. Sanders has the benefit (or handicap) of three of the four states with low minority populations (Iowa, NH, and Vermont, each with roughly 95% white population, Utah being the fourth) voting very early. So it will look good at first, but then his easiest states will be over and done with.

Clinton currently has about a 60+ to 35 % lead in Texas, which has 208 delegates, and an even bigger lead in Florida with 207 delegates - Florida will vote on March 1, Texas on March 15. Just those two states alone equate to about 260 to 155 for Clinton (more than 100 delegate advantage), a lead that would be insurmountable, especially considering that Clinton has about a 375-2 lead in Super Delegates.

Barring a real rout by Clinton on Super Tuesday (March 1), this could very well be over on March 15.

[John Poet]

28. Over 2700 delegates are needed for the Democratic nomination.

It'll be over when one candidate has that number of pledged delegates from primaries and caucuses (not including superdelegates who can change their minds), and not before one candidate has that number.

That won't happen in March, and probably not in April.

[George II]

30. Actually 2242 are needed. By the end of March Clinton will have about 1000 elected....

....delegates and she already has the support/endorsement of almost 400 of the 724 Super Delegates.

That means that she'll only need about 850 of the remaining 3100 delegates, roughly 25%. I don't know of a single state in which Sanders is ahead by 75-25, not even his home state of Vermont.

By the end of March this will be all but over.

[John Poet]

32. "All but" over isn't "over".

I believe that Bernie intends to contest ALL of the primaries,
and I will support him staying in the race until June 7th...

If not until the actual convention.

[Spazito]

17. Interesting article. n/t

[Gothmog]

20. Sanders taps Obama playbook

Sanders must win and win big in Iowa due to his issues with the demographics in other states. Sanders is polling well in states with 90+% white voting populations and only 2% of the delegates to the Democratic National Convention come from states that are as white as Iowa and New Hampshire http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-iowa-obama-playbook-218137

Yet Sanders’ strategy is something of a bank shot. Democratic caucuses, as opposed to primaries, account for just a small portion of the pledged delegates in the party’s selection process — around 15 percent — not nearly enough to offset Clinton’s expected big-state victories. The caucus wins are intended to sustain Sanders’ bid, rather than expected to propel him to the nomination on their own accord.

For the plan to work, he’ll also need to be competitive in primary election states and score a few surprise finishes. As it stands, Sanders faces a serious uphill climb once he gets past Iowa and New Hampshire — states where he polls well with the liberal, white populations that resemble his home state of Vermont. A recent Cook Political Report analysis of the Democratic delegates, for example, found that 98 percent of all the pledged delegates are set to originate in states that have lower proportions of liberal white voters than the first two voting states, where Sanders and Clinton are neck-and-neck.

To defeat Clinton for the nomination, Sanders would likely need to outperform his current numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the Cook analysis, while making considerable inroads with minority voters who will be casting ballots on March 1 and March 15, two dates filled with big-state primaries.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-iowa-obama-playbook-218137#ixzz3yW2fWvLw

[Jarqui]

26. Obama's playbook was that he was not doing

that well with blacks until after he won Iowa. About a month into the primary, the polls turned for him there.

[Skwmom]

24. It is. The corp media is desperate to spin the story against Sanders.

[Vinca]

25. I recall someone else lost the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and continued on.

Come to think of it, she came in third.