Clinton Holds Wide Lead In National Poll...JANUARY 26, 2016

[workinclasszero]

Clinton Holds Wide Lead In National Poll

By CONOR DINAN Published JANUARY 26, 2016, 4:09 PM EST

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains the clear national frontrunner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to an NBC/SurveyMonkey poll released Tuesday.

The NBC/SurveyMonkey Poll was carried out from Jan. 18-24. Pollsters surveyed 2,780 registered Democratic voters, with a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-leads-nbc-surveymonkey-dems

[Perogie]

1. So.

[Kalidurga]

2. It's not going to help her in Iowa or New Hampshire.

Minnesota will eventually break for Bernie as well.

[workinclasszero]

6. Bernie is already tamping down expectations in Iowa

I do believe he sees the writing on the wall.

[Kalidurga]

7. lol

this is the guy that expected to see 300 people in Minneapolis in June and over 5,000 show up and he thought a rock star was in town.

[workinclasszero]

8. Sanders: It's A 'Mythology' That I Need To Win Iowa

Sanders: It's A 'Mythology' That I Need To Win Iowa
Sanders appeared to lower expectations about his performance in the Iowa caucuses.
01/26/2016 04:30 pm ET

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/sanders-its-a-mythology-that-i-need-to-win-iowa_us_56a7e4a2e4b04936c0e89143


Straight from the man himself, dispute Bernie if you must.

[Kalidurga]

9. I read that and it doesn't change my opinion in the slightest.

[workinclasszero]

11. Fine by me

I guess reality is hitting Bernie first.

His followers will get it soon enough.

[pnwmom]

15. How many of them are registered voters?

[Bjorn Against]

37. You do not need to be registered to vote in Minnesota's caucuses

You do need to be registered to vote in the General Election but you can register at the polls on election day.

I suspect the vast majority at the rally were registered voters, but even if they were not they can still vote in the caucuses.

[Lordquinton]

17. Suddenly you're fine with an online poll?

Guess all that ranting about it before was because it was pro sanders.

Oh how the turntables...

[VulgarPoet]

21. Was just about to say the same thing.

Hypocrisy, thy names are Clinton supporters.

[cali]

25. Hill has been tamping down expectations there for weeks.

[CoffeeCat]

31. That is completely wrong

He's not "tamping down" expectations in Iowa. Bernie was interviewed and he was asked if he absolutely had to win Iowa to get the nomination. He said that notion is, "mythology." He wasn't saying that he's not going to win Iowa. He wasn't adjusting expectations.

The writing on the wall is that you have a very active imagination.

He was asked if he could still win, without winning Iowa, and he said, HELL YES. I mean, what other answer is there?

I was present at one of his rallies earlier this week and he flat out said that we are winning in Iowa and we will win if his supporter turn out. That's been his message repeatedly for weeks. I've heard it, in person, a few times.

I had the privilege of meeting Bernie during a precinct captain meeting in my area. Bernie told all of us to be optimistic because the "inevitable" was no longer "inevitable." However, he stressed the importance of working hard to get turnout. He doesn't want us behaving as if we've got it in the bag. We're all operating as if we're 10 points behind.

[morningfog]

42. He's smart to do so. The victory will be that much more powerful to his momentum.

Here's a clue, he was in St. Paul yesterday. He is in good shape in Iowa.

[Fawke Em]

46. I believe you're gulliable.

[onehandle]

3. Yeah, but online polls and big rallies in a few isolated spots.

FTW!

...heh.

[litlbilly]

10. A few isolated spots? Are you fucking kidding? Yikes

[Kalidurga]

12. Yeah St.Paul Minnesota is so very very isolated

20,000 plus showed up at the rally it was supposed to start at 7:00 pm, but it is really really hard to get that many people seated. BTW they started seating people an hour or more before the scheduled time.

[Lordquinton]

19. This was an online poll

I guess there' something here about how they did it, but it's still an ONLINE POLL.

[CoffeeCat]

32. You guys...

really are a piece of work, collectively.

You seem to be hell bent on mocking, belittling and pouring cold water on Sanders supporters.

No matter what the good news is--a favorable poll for Bernie or a well-attended rally--you are always around with your snippy comments.

This stuff doesn't work. Bernie has gone from 4 percent to WINNING in Iowa. According to the latest Quinnipiac that came out today, Bernie is ahead of Clinton by 4. That's huge.

Within 5 days, the comment will be "Yeah, but he only won one little Iowa caucus! FTW! ...heh."

Also, you mock Bernie winning online pols and big rallies. Clinton has none of that. She can't even muster a rally that is well attended. She resorts to gimmicks like free concerts with Demi Lovato and Katy Perry to try to boost her numbers. Now, she's got Bill out on the trail with her. I attended her downtown Des Moines rally. There were 350 people there. That's being generous. In the same building, Clinton held a 2008 rally and 2000+ attended. She's just not getting it done this year.

You might want to check your attitude a bit. Making fun of Bernie for doing well in polls and rallies--when your candidate is tanking in those categories--is bizarre.

[Fawke Em]

47. I'm in menopause. Pouring cold water on me makes me happy!

[CoffeeCat]

56. I like to stand in the frozen food section with the door open

and just hang out and enjoy cooling down. When my body temp slides to 106 or so, I resume my shopping.

Good times.

[Thinkingabout]

4. Thanks for the update, the primaries will be in fifty states and some territories.

[riversedge]

20. Yes, and Hillary and her team are helping down-ticket Dems get elected.

[Thinkingabout]

43. Yes she is, getting one's self elected is not the complete game, getting a supporting team

is really important, she thinks about others besides herself.

[riversedge]

44. I truly believe that

those 4 years working as SOS has helped her--We the US can not go alone--and as President she will need support in Congress and abroad.

[Thinkingabout]

45. After the mess Bush/ Cheney created there was lots of reestablishing needed with the world

[Fawke Em]

48. Not really.

Money isn't votes.

[IllinoisBrenel]

5. Hillary's lead

Her nation wide lead is actually narrowing!

[SheilaT]

13. Where was Obama at this point in 2007?

As I recall, Hillary was totally inevitable in 2008. Why, then, are we not in the waning months of her second term?

[pnwmom]

18. Obama was leading in Iowa in both "definitely will caucus" voters and "probably will."

As opposed to the current situation, that has Hillary strongly leading in "definitely" and Bernie with the same advantage among the "probable" voters.

[oasis]

14. Hillary's "listening campaign" has caught on. America is impressed

with this powerful and accomplished woman's ability to listen.

[VulgarPoet]

22. Listen to her corporate puppeteers, maybe.

You realize the entire world saw the fact that she hosted ANOTHER corporate fundraiser... Not even days before Iowa...

[oasis]

23. Do you REALIZE it'll take an enormous amount of money to take on the GOP?

If she participates in a fund raiser 2 hours before the polls open so what?

If there is some sort of moratorium in place for a fund raising period, it exists only in the minds of Bernie supporters.

[VulgarPoet]

24. Her candidacy in my eyes

is honey from a poisoned hive due to where her money comes from. I was too young to fight Citizens United when it passed, what were you doing at that time? How complicit are you in the money grubbery of politicians?

[oasis]

29. Lifelong Democrat here. BTW, Citizens United was imposed on

the American people by the Supreme Court, so there was little anyone could do.

That's why it's very important Democrats retain the White House, because 2 or 3 vacancies will occur on the Supreme Court within the next few years.

[CoffeeCat]

35. The latest Quinnipiac poll has Sanders beating Clinton by 4

Quinnipiac is a sound, reliable poll--which uses similar methodology as The Iowa Poll.

This is a really big deal.

This is the same margin that Obama went into the Iowa caucuses with. Obama was ahead by 3.

The candidate who goes into the Iowa caucuses with the momentum and the polls on their side, always has the advantage. Always.

Because some caucus-goers are persuadable. And they're not going to be "persuaded" to a losing side. They're going to go with the winner, nearly every time.

Bernie couldn't be better positioned to win the Iowa caucuses. He's ahead, and he's got momentum going in--and her numbers are eroding.

[oasis]

36. The mercurial nature of caucuses makes the Iowa outcome too unpredictable.

So we'll just have to sit back, wait and see what happens.

[CoffeeCat]

38. Not really...

The Iowa Poll and the Quinnipiac Poll are strong indicators of the Iowa caucus outcomes. Both use the same methodology. And The Iowa Poll predicted Obama's win.

There are things that we do know about the Iowa caucuses.

1.) The candidate going in with momentum (rising in the polls) has a distinct advantage.

2.) The candidate ahead in the polls has a distinct advantage (for obvious reasons).

Bernie has both.

Sanders started out at 4 percent in Iowa. He's now ahead by 4. There's just no denying that her campaign is on a downward trend and Sanders is on an upward trend.

The "persuadables" who show up at the Iowa caucuses will no doubt go with the candidate who is wining the room. That's just what happens. And if Bernie has a lot of enthusiasm and numbers, he could even steal away further support from her.

That "mercurial" aspect of the Iowa caucuses favors the candidate who is ahead in the polls and who has the momentum going in, so most of the shifts and volatility that does happen that night will favor Sanders.

[oasis]

39. Okay, you have convincingly made your point but,

as the saying goes, "The proof is in the Podunks".

[CoffeeCat]

41. So very true

It all depends on turnout, really.

I think each camp is working day/night to ensure that their supporters are there.

[Lordquinton]

16. METHODOLOGY

This SurveyMonkey Election Tracking data for the week of January 18, 2016 through January 24, 2016 was conducted online among a national sample of among a national sample of 9,690 adults aged 18 and over, including 8,215 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor

Hmmmmm.......

[VulgarPoet]

28. The subtext is "polls can't be trusted unless Hillary is on top of them".

And yet whenever someone points it out, they're immediately a radical leftist extremist and a conspiracy theorist.

[livetohike]

26. Stable numbers. n/t

[pangaia]

27. I don't remember Bernie ever saying he was going to win Iowa.

I may be wrong, and if so I am sure you will remind me.

However, Sanders losing by a few points is much more of a win for him than Clinton losing by a few points.
Clinton is on much thinner ice than Sanders is.

[Fawke Em]

50. To be fair, he's said that he might in his stump speeches.

But, that's what you do to rally the troops.

[pangaia]

53. Thanks, Fawke Em.

That's helpful.

[Fawke Em]

54. BTW, I love Bobby Dylan

That's what my parents called him.

My Mom, a 67 year old Baby Boomer thought was all Hill, until her daughter, me, showed her the difference.

[pangaia]

57. I'm 72 so that tells you a lot about me and Bobby. :>)

I had never seen him live, in all these years... until 2010 I think. He came to a huge outdoor concert venue very close by in the summer.. in fact the same place where a band I led opened for the band that opened for Carlos Santana.... :&gt )

I got 2 seats for Dylan up front, in about the 15th row. I was almost in tears when he walked out.

Good for you and your mom.

[longship]

30. Nearly totally meaningless with our nomination process.

Which is incremental and granular, one or a few states at a time.

National polls are rubbish, even after the nominations, they are meaningless as long as we nominate and elect our presidents by 50 statewide elections.

Quoting national polls, especially this early, is just spin.

My regards.

[WI_DEM]

33. It's true national leads at this point are not too important--HRC was ahead of Obama nationally, too

at this point. If Iowa and NH go to Bernie you will suddenly see a lot of states tighten.

[Motown_Johnny]

34. A little smaller every day. Remember when it was 3-1 or even 2-1 ?

Not any more.


Lets see how Iowa turns out and then we can talk about the meaningless national numbers again.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

49. The gap is closing nationally

[Iliyah]

40. Sweetie ya should know if this poll favored BS there would be a different tune

and in no way HRC could win the primary nor GE pursuant to them . Again double standard regardless.

K & R

[floriduck]

51. Keep clinging to the last hope you have.

Meanwhile, the rest of the party will gradually work their way over to the candidate making a difference and gaining ground. Only one person is gaining so watch the money and endorsements begin to shift Bernie's direction once he takes Iowa and Anaheim.


Bejrn on!

[workinclasszero]

52. Yeah have your fun Bernie fans

South Carolina is right around the corner and then super tuesday when Hillary locks up the nomination.

Bernies a loser.

[Fawke Em]

55. I live in one of those states.

Get ready to eat your words.