SC and Super Tuesday

[nitpicker]

From my read, there is a "racial" advantage for HRC in many of these primaries.

Saturday, February 27 South Carolina (D) 59 Open
Tuesday, March 1
(Super Tuesday) Alabama 60 D, 50 R Open
Alaska caucus (R) 28 Closed
American Samoa caucus (D) 10 Open
Arkansas 37 D, 40 R Open
Colorado caucus 79 D, 37 R Closed
Georgia 116 D, 76 R Open
Massachusetts 116 D, 42 R Mixed
Minnesota caucus 93 D, 38 R Open
North Dakota caucus (R) 28 Closed
Oklahoma 42 D, 43 R Closed
Tennessee 76 D, 58 R Open
Texas 252 D, 155 R Open
Vermont 26 D, 16 R Open
Virginia 110 D, 49 R Open
Wyoming caucus (R) 29 Closed

South Carolina, Alabama and Georgia, according to the 2010 census, were at least 20% African-American.

Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia had 10-19%.

In my opinion, the only one of these where Sanders might come close to Clinton is Virginia ((IF Sanders actvists actually turn out)).

Add Louisiana on March 5 and Mississippi on March 8 (both 20%+ African-American)...

Advantage Clinton (even if Sanders wins the northern/"white meat" states).

In my opinion, between this and HRC's superdelegates, Sanders has to hope for a miracle (e.g. increases in Clinton's scandals) to have any chance.

[Le Taz Hot]

1. That's right . . .

Keep counting those chickens.

[HereSince1628]

2. Well, there's also something of a conservative advantage

and the advent of super-Tuesday which, you may remember, was intended to give southern states a more important role in presidential politics.

I rather suspect that the conservative leanings of politics of southern and great plains states within super-Tuesday has at least as much influence on the early primaries as race.

[Stuckinthebush]

3. You are absolutely correct

SC and supertuesday will cement the nomination for Clinton because of this overwhelming advantage.

Sanders can win both Iowa and NH but he will lose all of the March races because of this demographic advantage for Clinton. Also, southern Dems are much more middle of the road and pragmatic which helps Clinton. Add to this her incredible lead in superdelagates and it really isn't a race.

Sanders CAN win but what he has to do is win both early races then hope that momentum pulls a 20+ point deficit in March states to tight wins. He will have to win over moderate and conservative Dems as well as minorities. Then, he would have to convince superdelagates to switch support.

It is possible but highly improbable.

Both internal camps understand this mathematical advantage I'm sure.

[demwing]

5. Haven't y'all learned to not underestimate Bernie?

Everything has gone pretty much according to his plan, so far.

Do you think the season has gone according to Clinton's plans?

[Stuckinthebush]

6. Under or overestimation aside

it's a hell of a mathematical hill to climb. I don't see it happening. Too many hurdles.

But one never knows. It is possible just not probable.

[book_worm]

4. I can see Bernie doing well (either winning or making a strong showing) in VT, ND, MN, CO & MA