Iowa Will Go Down to the Wire for Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, Poll Suggests

[lovuian]

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/27/newsletter-iowa-will-be-at-decided-the-wire-for-hillary-clinton-and-bernie-sanders-poll-suggests/?_r=0

Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont remain deadlocked in Iowa less than a week before the caucuses, according to a new poll that shows the first nominating contest going down to the wire.

A survey from Quinnipiac University found that 49 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers supported Mr. Sanders and that 45 percent backed Mrs. Clinton. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

[2pooped2pop]

1. The difference is one is going up, while one is sliding g down.

So a loss here for Clinton is most likely pointing to an end but a loss here for Bernie just says look how far you've come as he continues to rise.

[lovuian]

2. I'm pretty amazed

watching the polls over months and now they are neck in neck at Iowa

[2pooped2pop]

3. Yes Bernie has really accomplished so much!

[CoffeeCat]

4. I'm not contesting that this is a close race

...but I fail to see how the NY Times can spin the Quinnipiac poll--with Bernie ahead by 4--as deadlocked.

A four-point lead does not fit the definition of deadlocked.

I understand there are margins error, but four points is four points.

If Clinton was ahead by 4, I assure you, they would not describe the race as "deadlocked."

[Uncle Joe]

5. Personally, I'm happier that they are reporting it this way,

as it's more likely to reduce the dynamic of complacency.

Turnout is absolutely critical to a Bernie victory.

One final piece of advice that I would offer to Bernie supporters in Iowa and anywhere else for that matter, pay absolutely no attention to corporate media conglomerate "projections" on voting day whether Bernie is up by 50 or down by 50.

The former may induce complacency in thinking that's it's already won and the latter promoting despair, in either case a person might become more disinclined to vote.

It's not over until it's over.

[HereSince1628]

6. Yes, only a fraction of Iowans participate in the caucuses so turnout is important

Not that that is unusual for primaries and caucuses. It's the American Way.

Now, in any honest election, the majority of votes is what wins, so it's pretty obvious that the side that GOTV wins

But, what's surprising to people who don't pay close attention is how small the number of voters behind the margins of victory can be. A very definitive win in the Iowa democratic caucus can come down to a difference of about 10-14 thousand participants, and that averages out to be a surprisingly low number of voters per precinct somewhere less than 20.

In a circumstance where less than 1/3 of registered voters typically participate, it's possible for a trailing candidate with committed supporters to do much better than expected from the available polling.

As you say we won't know til it's over