A polling concern for Bernie in Iowa

[Godhumor]

From Harry Enten's Twitter feed:

There hasn't been a single registered list sample poll taken in Iowa that has shown Sanders ahead... We'll see if Selzer does tmmw.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/693113971264638976

For those unaware, a registered list sample is where sample participants are verified against a party's registration lists. Pollsters use these as a sense check to verify likely voter screens and to craft their population parameters.

[Renew Deal]

1. Enten is part of 538

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Campaigns use registered voters lists as a basis because accuracy is paramount.

Media outlets and universities tend to rely on random digit dialing because it is cheaper.

[Jarqui]

3. Bernie would have his own internal polling so

whether someone does it on the outside really isn't a concern for Bernie. It might be a concern for 538 because it might make it harder to predict an outcome without it.

[Uponthegears]

4. A couple of serious question, no snark

Because I think you are clearly very knowledgeable on this statistical analysis stuff (yea, I read your primer, nice stuff) AND you didn't add any snark of your own to a very informative post.

Do you consider this unexpected considering that much of Sanders support comes from new voters and/or voters who have, until this year, felt largely abandoned by the Democratic Party?

Given the narrowness of some of the predicted margins in Harry's twitter feed, could the outcome be affected by what I think is being called the O'Malley factor, i.e., that O'Malley delegates appear poised to break more heavily toward Sanders?

Again, VERY informative.

[Godhumor]

6. Sure, thanks for asking so nicely

First, even a "registered" sample isn't connected 100% to the lists. Most pollsters who use it as a check system shoot for about 50% verification within the sample. This allows for new voters, switching parties, etc.

As for the O'Malley factor, if he hits 5% support and is reallocated 80% to Bernie (4 percentage points for him, 1 for Hillary for a net of 3) it may result in 2 or 3 extra delegates total for Bernie but nothing earth shattering. Symbolically, it helps, but in the long game O'Malleys delegates had very little chance of being influential.

[Uponthegears]

8. THANKS!

[ViseGrip]

7. Exactly! This great post from CoffeeCat reflects the truth of what you'r saying here, look at this..

Last time polls were taken, these voters were ten! They're not on any list! ha!
*************************************************************
Just a little glimmer from Iowa

So, I've got my precinct lists and I've been calling and canvassing in my precinct. We're doing very well by the way.

One thing that has happened, is that I am finding Sanders supporters who are under the radar. They are not even on my list.

Our lists are people who have voted D before. Many of these people are Indies (and many of them are caucusing for Bernie). I've found NOT ONE Indie who supports Clinton. I find them everyday for Bernie. And keep in mind, my suburb is fairly conservative. This gives me hope, because Clinton tends to do well in more conservative areas with Bernie besting her in the liberal strongholds.

One thing that has been very cool is that when I knock on a door and talk with the men and women who answer the door, they'll say, "Yes, we're Bernie supporters and so is our daughter."

Well. I don't have their daughter on my list, because during the last caucus--she was ten years old--and she's never voted! Isn't that mind blowing? So, I add their daughter to my list. These families are all caucusing together. Our suburb is all families--and I have added plenty of 18 year olds who, until now, have not even been on our radar. So nice!

I'm finding quite a few Sanders supporters this way. Canvassing for Bernie in Iowa is like a treasure hunt, and let me tell you, I'm finding quite a few gems along the way.

Must go...time to hit the pavement!

[wilsonbooks]

5. Then there is this.....

Eleven states currently have some form of Election Day voter registration: Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Wyoming, and Washington DC. Montana began Election Day voter registration in 2006, and Iowa in 2008. In 2012, Connecticut and California both enacted new laws to implement Election Day Registration. Connecticut started with its municipal elections in 2013. Colorado followed enacting EDR for the 2014 election. Illinois implemented a pilot in 2014 and made EDR permanent starting in 2015. Rhode Island also have Election Day registration for presidential elections. California will start in 2015 or once it has implemented its statewide voter registration database. (North Dakota, unique among the states, has no voter registration requirement at all.)