Wintry-looking Iowa caucus intensifies turnout fears for Trump and Sanders

[Eugene]

Source: The Guardian

Wintry-looking Iowa caucus intensifies turnout fears for Trump and Sanders

Snowstorm that could dump as much as 6 inches Monday may stall momentum
of insurgent campaigns as candidates make final push across Hawkeye State

Dan Roberts in Burlington, Iowa
Friday 29 January 2016 16.58 GMT

In the end, the direction of American politics may all come down to a snowstorm.

Months of fierce campaigning have left both party leadership races too close to call in Iowa as the rural state prepares to become the first, and most influential, to pick candidates for November’s presidential election.

Opinion polls suggest a narrow lead for Donald Trump among Republicans and a near dead-heat between rival Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders ahead of the caucuses on Monday evening.

Yet Trump and Sanders are dependent on support from younger voters and anti-establishment types who tend to turn up less reliably than the party faithful backing Clinton and the more traditional Republicans.

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Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/29/iowa-caucus-turnout-snow-storm-republicans-democrats-sanders-trump

[thomservo]

1. Seems like older people...

would be less likely to turn out in bad weather.

[MissDeeds]

5. That's exactly my thought too

Could be good for Bernie since he has a lot of support from younger voters.

[onehandle]

10. LOL! That's the exact opposite of reality.

Not only are older people more likely to vote, but they are much more likely to vote during adverse conditions.

Learned that on day one of my first GOTV experience, years ago.

[BOSNYCDC]

11. True. The difference this cycle is...

That younger voters are very, very excited in a way they haven't often been before.

Given how this election season has been an exception to almost every rule I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out a bit differently.

[book_worm]

19. Older people are more likely to vote period than younger people

that is why there is always such an issue as to whether young people will vote or not.

[DanTex]

24. That was my thought too. College students don't care much about cold.

[Jarqui]

2. The forecast I saw was sunny breaks, above freezing and a little

sprinkle of snow. ??

Older one saying it would be balmy
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucus/2016/01/24/iowa-caucus-weather-could-balmy/79139706/


https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Des+Moines+IA+USIA0231:1:US

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/des-moines-ia/50316/daily-weather-forecast/328810

There's heavy snow forecast for the next day

[Persondem]

9. As of now (1:00 pm, Fri) the Weather Channel has the snow and wind starting Monday evening

with 1-3 inches of snow expected and gusty winds. Doesn't seem too bad but could be enough to dampen turnout and keep some first timers at home or in storm prep mode. That could indeed hurt Sanders and Trump.

[aspirant]

13. Is it the gusty winds (must be hurricane force)

or 1-3 inches of snow which barely reach the tops of your shoes that will cause mass hibernation in Iowa?

[artislife]

18. Lets stress the part of the sentence that says "in Iowa"

I lived in NoDak and Minnesota. What the rest of the country is calling "storm", the midwest calls "winter"

[DaGimpster]

22. Storm prep mode?

We don't buy out every loaf of bread & gallon of milk like they do in VA/NC/etc. lol

[aspirant]

3. let me guess...

Iowans have no idea how to operate in the wintery snow

[tokenlib]

7. Growing up in Minnesota, we always made cracks about Iowa drivers in the snow....

..but I'm sure they can deal with it. And I'm sure the grassroots organizers will have getting people to the caucuses on their priority list...

[demwing]

4. 6" in IA in February?

That's about average, right?

[ViseGrip]

6. 'HAARP' ??

[onehandle]

8. Rut-roh. nt

[Lodestar]

12. Passionate young people are energized and unstoppable...

I have no idea what they are talking about here. Wishful thinking? Of COURSE
Sander's young supporters will turn out.

As for Trump's supporters?.... can't say.

[beltanefauve]

30. All those thousands

of people showing up at Sanders rallies but they won't follow through with voting?

I seriously doubt it. Agreed, wishful thinking from the powers that be.

[Nanjeanne]

14. Young people and older people have stood in the cold for Sanders' Rallies

and I have a feeling that enthusiastic passionate people will brave the weather to vote for a candidate they feel inspired by.

[demwing]

15. The article says the snow is due Tuesday

"a major storm due to sweep in from the west and dump 6in of snow on the state by Tuesday"

Why did you change it to Monday?

[restorefreedom]

16. yes, everyone knows old people love to come out in bad weather

while millenials hide in their homes..

[floriduck]

17. Help me understand how inclement weather

would impact younger, progressive voters more adversely than older voters and women? How do people come to such amazingly bizarre conclusions?

And as for poll results, how do polls relate to newer and first time voters. These mostly Bernie supporters have never been included in polls of registered, likely voters. Even Hillary backing pundits admit the young votes is a complete wild card and unpredictable.

[Tanuki]

21. Part of Sanders' ground strategy in Iowa has been to encourage college students to caucus

in their home counties instead of where their campus is located, to spread the delegates around instead of concentrating them in a few locations. Nothing wrong with that, but I can see how extreme weather might make traveling long distances less feasible. That said, I hope that the weather remains fair and that everyone gets to their caucus destination safely to support the candidate of their choice.

[oberliner]

20. The UK Guardian is probably not the best source for an Iowa weather forecast

Caucus day is supposed to be clear and unseasonably warm across the state.

[emulatorloo]

23. Evening forecast is 50% chance of snow, highs in upper 20's. Caucus @ 7Pm

I'm sure the UK has access to US weather forecasts.

That being said I don't think Iowans will have an issue with a little snow and temps in the 20s

[oberliner]

26. Exactly

There are no weather-related turnout fears as the UK Guardian newspaper is suggesting.

Maybe they don't realize that high 20s and a possible flurry is good weather for Iowa for this time of year?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. We do have weather forecasts as you implied

https://weather.com/weather/5day/l/USIA0231:1:US

[oberliner]

27. What is the significance of that Ali meeting the Clintons picture?

Just curious.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Two people I admire...Here is a great Ali-Clinton anecdote

http://www.secondsout.com/columns/thomas-hauser/did-barbra-streisand-whup-sonny-liston


I am sure you know that is very young Muhammad Ali in my avatar.

[Bjornsdotter]

29. It's Iowa...

....not Florida.

I'm sure they will be fine. Six inches is a dusting.