2016 Postmortem
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(6,048 posts)Hillary will lose Iowa mainly as a coping mechanism. I just don't want to get my hopes up.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)We mortals have to rely on the tools available and the polls suggest she is going to win.
Molusko
(26 posts)Thanks for the news.
HerbChestnut
(3,649 posts)Gothmog
(143,998 posts)mhatrw
(10,786 posts)This is the first Iowa poll they have done, so there are no trends to report.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)But here is a link to aggregate polling:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-iowa-presidential-democratic-caucus
That's the fourth poll in a row to show HRC ahead.
mhatrw
(10,786 posts)according to these pollsters.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,704 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)for this phenomenon is unclear the fact that there is uch a house effect is indisputable).
Alfresco
(1,698 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)538 and other polling analysts have confirmed that the robo-call polls are projecting different results than the many polls conducted according to all of other polling methods.
The Democratic race in Iowa is an excellent example of this phenomenon.
If you look at just the robo-call polling, you see Clinton well ahead:
However, if you look at ALL of the polling except the robo-call polls (the live cell + landline phone polls and the internet-based polls come to similar results), you see a race that is a dead heat with Sanders rising while Clinton falls:
The reason why the poll aggregation websites (538, RCP, Pollster) show Clinton with a slight lead is that they average the robo-call polls (which consistently favor Trump and Clinton) with the other polls which use a traditional methodology (so Clinton's lead is smaller than her robo-lead but the race is not tied as the non-robo-polls indicate).
Check back Monday night to see which polls were more accurate!
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)... things are looking EXCEEDINGLY positive for Hillary!
Go, Hillary!
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)then she has failed to meet expectations.
You have sold me on this point!
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)mcar
(42,206 posts)libdem4life
(13,877 posts)But then again, as Hillary said, she doesn't pay any attention to the polls...as she proceeded to tell the interviewer how ahead she was...uh, in the polls.
Renew Deal
(81,801 posts)But you are only as good as your last poll. Zogby was considered the best for awhile after getting Clinton right. Now he's nowhere to be found.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Renew Deal
(81,801 posts)Damn autocorrect
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)zappaman
(20,605 posts)I learned about that here on DU.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1046347
Bobbie Jo
(14,341 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Wow! Looking good for Hillary!
lunamagica
(9,967 posts)MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)I wouldn't be surprised if this latest round of email hit job attacks is helping her. We've seen these attacks since 1992, and it is always bogus.