Path to a Brokered GOP Convention Emerges

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

By Sean Trende

For many conservative Republicans, the dream outcome of the primary season is a brokered convention. Disappointed in the four remaining choices, they hope to change horses in August, and draft their preferred candidate, be it Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, or Paul Ryan.

I've been adamant that such an outcome is extremely unlikely. For a brokered convention to occur, there has to be an almost perfect storm of events; the GOP elites can’t just declare shenanigans on the primary season and select a new nominee. Instead, something has to prevent any of the current candidates from clinching a majority of the delegates; if one of them amasses that majority, he will be the nominee on the first ballot at the convention in Tampa.

My assumption -- and the assumption of many -- was that the GOP fight would eventually degenerate into an ideological battle between the very conservative and somewhat conservative/moderate wings of the party, with Romney on one side and a single alternative on the other. Unless there was a late entrant or Ron Paul caught fire in the caucus states, someone was virtually assured of claiming the requisite number of delegates in that scenario.

But for the first time, the two way faceoff doesn't seem inevitable, and a viable path to a brokered convention is beginning to emerge. Let’s start with something else I overlooked. The GOP does have super-delegates of a sort, in the form of the 63 RNC members. They aren’t as numerous as they are in the Democratic Party, but they are still there. While many of them have already declared allegiance to one candidate or another, those commitments can evaporate quickly, as Hillary Clinton learned to her sorrow in 2008.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/02/09/path_to_a_brokered_gop_convention_emerges_113063.html

[DCBob]

1. This outcome worries me a bit.

It gives the GOPers a chance to wipe the negative slate clean and bring in a new face that could excite and energize the party. I think we are much better off if Romney is the nominee. He is boring, lame, predictable, uninspiring and a gaffe machine. What more could you ask for in a political opponent?

[Old and In the Way]

2. Meh.

I like Romney as the Republican candidate. I like any of the current crop. If they were to go the route of a completely new candidate, there's the same probability, maybe even a greater chance that they'll fail as well. Always a chance that some really ugly skeletons getting exposed. And a relatively fresh, clean face has a problem with name recognition. There's only 3 months to run a brand new campaign and the first few weeks are going to be a lot of stumbles and missteps. I personally don't think it flies...but if it does, I think it will underscore just how broken this Party is.

[customerserviceguy]

4. Can't see that happening

In this day and age, Repukes are going to want someone who can say that they fought the good fight, and got sidelined early. Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels might be a possibility, although I doubt it. Only those who are jostling it out for the long haul can get the respect needed to get the nomination from a deadlocked convention. The Rethugs just don't have some senior statesman out there who decided that it wasn't worth the scuffle. Not even Chris Christie.

If there is no first ballot nominee who strides into the convention triumphant, it will be a big fat battle between Noot, Ricky, and Mittens. The only solution will be if two of them unite, with one taking the top slot, and one assuming the VP role. I cannot imagine either of the first two making a deal with Romney, by the time of the convention, he will have savaged both of them badly. I also cannot imagine Noot, with his incredible ego, taking on the VP role. It will be total chaos if Santorum is the top delegate getter, with no first ballot victory.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

3. The problem with any of those "alternative" candidates (aside from their individual liabilities)

is that they are all "establishment" Republicans whom may hold some appeal to the general electorate but unlikely to generate real enthusiasm among the base. Plus, they run the risk of alienating the base by being seen as trying to cram an "establishment" candidate down their throats when they're already clearly not particularly fond of Romney. If there is one thing that we've learned well about the teabaggers, it's that they don't just "sit down and shut up." If there ends up being a brokered convention, they will not sit idly by and allow the "establishment" to, like I said, cram another "establishment" candidate down their throats and will, in all likelihood, seek to influence (if not dominate) the process resulting in more chaos and a flawed nominee. The teabaggers don't believe in compromise and they don't believe in "unity" unless it is around their preferred person(s) and the GOP establishment is likely not going to be able to control them. If Romney manages to "survive" the primary process, they will have to give the VP slot to a rock-ribbed teabagger/conservative to mollify the base or risk even less unity than what they're already looking at IMHO.

[susanr516]

8. You've nailed it

"The teabaggers don't believe in compromise and they don't believe in 'unity' unless it is around their preferred person(s) and the GOP establishment is likely not going to be able to control them." They'd rather go down in flames than yield a single inch.

[krawhitham]

5. That gives whoever 60+ days to get donations and set up a volunteers

In today's age it would be insane to select a new candidate out of a brokered convention. It does not give the candidate enough time to raise funds. Mitt can not and would not just give his donations to a new candidate.

The Candidate would have no ground game, no funds, it would just be a total blood bath

[ChairmanAgnostic]

6. B R O K E N , not brokered.

[grasswire]

7. don't fear Jeb

I have it on impeccable authority that bimbo eruptions are waiting in the wings should Jeb step in.