2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRepublican Enthusiasm Gap Could Spell Trouble For Party In November
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/02/republican-enthusiasm-gap-could-spell-trouble-for-party-in-november.phpRepublican Enthusiasm Gap Could Spell Trouble For Party In November
Kyle Leighton February 13, 2012, 6:02 AM 1441 32
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I think the lack of enthusiasm among Republicans is partially about Romney, but more broadly a reflection of their discontent with the field as a whole, said Public Policy Polling (D) pollster Tom Jensen in an email to TPM. In addition to PPP, Pew numbers from early January found the same trend. We did a national poll last week that found only 47% of GOP voters were satisfied with their choice of candidates, while 41% wished someone else would get into the race. That compares to 73% of Democrats who said they were happy to have Obama as their candidate.
Republican voters arent ready to run through a wall for any of these candidates, in contrast to the way Democrats felt about Clinton and Obama in 2008, he went on. That may change once they have a nominee and the focus shifts to beating Obama, but for now Democrats are more excited for the fall.
Theoretically, it would be quite a challenge to dampen Republican spirits to the point that they could lose the edge on enthusiasm heading into November of 2012 but the last few weeks suggest it could happen. The economy has ticked up bringing the Presidents approval along with it, something Miringoff said is More of a motivator if the approval rating is tanking its not a great strategy if the worst is behind us. The GOP primary process is getting more negative and disruptive, continuing on even though theres a candidate with the most money and organization, not to mention the support of several well-funded super PACs. And Obama himself has made a successful pivot to jobs and the economy, coupling it with foreign policy successes that provide a supporting argument on his competency as President.
It is more likely that Republicans will rally around Romney or whomever is the candidate the smart bet is the anti-Obama sentiment will be a major motivator after Americans suffered through a three year recession. But will that be enough to elect a bland or flawed GOP nominee? This is where Miringoff says the GOP may run in trouble when the height of the campaign comes in the fall.
You do want to energize your base, he said. If in September and October theres a lot of frustration with independents, who to turn off the campaign because they arent satisfied with the candidates, it may become a base election. Obama recent decisions certainly seem to show he understands that.
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)Suji to Seoul
(2,035 posts)Newt looks like he crapped his pants. Santorum looks like he needs his oil can. Mitt looks like he's downwind of Newt's pants bomb and Paul look stoned!
Can't imagine why there is an Enthusiasm Gap in the GOP.
yellowcanine
(35,699 posts)LongTomH
(8,636 posts)"Santorum looks like he needs his oil can."
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,406 posts)at the very least, they won't have that "edge" over us come November. If there are even some Republicans willing to consider voting for Obama, that's even better!
CAPHAVOC
(1,138 posts)The only rational explanation. They do not want to be in charge when the collapse hits.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,406 posts)CAPHAVOC
(1,138 posts)I do not think either party can do anything to stop it.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,406 posts)How bad will it be? What do you know about this?
CAPHAVOC
(1,138 posts)Just the way it looks to me. But I am a Pessimist. I am surprised Bernake has been able to keep it up this long. My point is that the GOP looks so bad it appears they are trying to lose.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,406 posts)to "Barack X" but who knows? They'd never admit it even if that's what they are trying to do. Given the supposedly "favorable" conditions for winning this year (or so we have been repeatedly told by the corp media since last year), I'm really surprised that some of the supposedly "stronger" and presumably more "formidable" candidates decided NOT to run this year. My only thought has been that none of them (i.e. Daniels, Christie, JBush) considered themselves "appealing" enough to the teabaggers driving the clown car right now to win in the primaries. Either that or they believe Obama has (and always has had) a greater than average chance of winning no matter what in November.
CAPHAVOC
(1,138 posts)GOP has no reasonable argument to make. What is Romoney going to say? Vote for me because I am rich? I will keep the rich rich and tax the evil poor people? Its great to be rich...too bad you are not? Give it up. But Obama might get stuck holding the bag.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,406 posts)The GOP has made it 100X harder for him to do anything to fix the damage for seemingly no reason other than to politically harm him. Romney just seems to be an empty suit with no real vision or ideas to offer the country. Of course, that pretty much describes most of the GOP at the moment.
CAPHAVOC
(1,138 posts)Politics is just a lame blame game. Truth is there is no way to fix this mess. This is turning in to a huge good cop bad cop routine.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)That is why many of us are screaming that we must get active at the local level.
Gman
(24,780 posts)Obstructing and utterly trying to destroy Obama as they have for the last 3 years just to take a dive now. This is completely unexpected by them. They are having to come to grips with this monster called the tea party they've created and now can't control. They truly are reaping what they have sown.
grahamhgreen
(15,741 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)have just said "fuck it," and not shown up if he's already the chosen one.
The question is whether they'll show up for him (or any one of these clowns) in November.
peace frog
(5,609 posts)Smells like VICTORY.
Johnny2X2X
(19,038 posts)This is the destruction of their party. This spells disaster for them in November. I guess when you pin an entire party's hopes on the economy failing and you put forth zero new ideas this is what you get.
It's up to us now to seize this moment and shape our country for a generation. This is our time, this is our chance.
rocktivity
(44,576 posts)Last edited Sun May 31, 2015, 12:57 PM - Edit history (1)
Republican voters arent ready to run through a wall for any of these candidates, in contrast to the way Democrats felt about Clinton and Obama in 2008...Yes, I remember it well -- here at DU, the "Obamatrons" and the "Hillbots" went at each other like rams during the rutting season.
[div style="text-align:center"]
It was painful -- so painful that I feared DU would see its first unsuccessful donation drives. But I would gladly re-live every second of it, because I realize now that we had candidates who were WORTH fighting over. And since no one was pre-selected and force-fed upon us, the landslide majority of the "Hillbots" were able to get behind "Obamatrons" when the smoke cleared.
As for the tsunami of anti-Obama sentiment that the GOP is reduced to counting on, it might happen, but I don't think it will be big enough. Even if the GOP voters get their wish and end up with a Chris Christie or a Tim Pawlenty, the GOP primary season has soured too many moderates and independents for them to get within even a cheatproof margin.
rocktivity
Arugula Latte
(50,566 posts)The 'pubs are in a world of hurt, and I love it.
Auggie
(31,163 posts)progressoid
(49,978 posts)A lot of House and Senate seats could benefit from the GOP's apathy as long as Democrats take advantage.
DallasNE
(7,402 posts)Have to be viewed with a grain of salt because they were open primaries which means independents also vote. In 2008 they had a choice of Republican or Democratic candidates to choose. This year there is no contested election for Democrats. Unless there is a way to only count Republican votes those totals are meaningless. Having said that, South Carolina is up enough that turnout likely was heavier but the New Hampshire turnout was almost certainly down -- we just don't know by how much in either case. Also, Missouri is meaningless because there was delegate selection in 2008 and none in 2012.
That leaves nominal gains in Iowa and Maine and very significant losses elsewhere.
ThatsMyBarack
(7,641 posts)Red states getting blue-overs!
riverwalker
(8,694 posts)This does not bode well for her. Will know more when the districts are redrawn this spring.
the_chinuk
(332 posts)DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)Even as much as these folks hate each other, they hate us more. They will all fall into lockstep goose-step because they fell they have to gte Obama out of the White House. Count this as a double warning if they use the convention in Tampa to actually get a White Anglo-Saxon Protestant from the South, like, I dunno, Jeb Bush.
JoePhilly
(27,787 posts)Laura PourMeADrink
(42,770 posts)NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)any reason behind it?
DallasNE
(7,402 posts)Which means that independents can choose whichever ballot they want. In 2008 many of them choose the Democratic ballot in that contested election. In 2012 there was only a contested election amoungst Republicans so that was their only choice. Plus, there was a boatload of money spent down there.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)will that up the enthusiasm among Republics?
Bachmann? Perry? McDonnell from VA?
groovedaddy
(6,229 posts)Hutzpa
(11,461 posts)JNelson6563
(28,151 posts)here in northern MI. Everyone I talk to is excited about the election. I am too.
Julie
groovedaddy
(6,229 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)DFW
(54,349 posts)If either one of these two disasters gets more than 16 votes in any Republican primary, including votes
made up out of thin air by Diebold machines and Scott Walker's secretary, then that is the most definitive
indication that there is a serious enthusiasm deficit.
Ian62
(604 posts)One GOP talking head said Romney has got to find his base.
Huh?
He has been campaigning for 4 YEARS.
He hasn't got a base and he never will have.
The only base Romney has got are the Gop elites, the bankers, the lobbyists, the defense industry, Bain Capital, Nu Skin (Utah MLM) - all major donors.
Oh and John Bolton.
Ian62
(604 posts)are religious extremists.
I haven't been able to spot any differences between Santorum and the Ayatollahs in Iran, except their purported faith.
Both try to ram their faith down other's throats whilst not adhering to basic tenets of their own faith themselves.
Both are warmongering and violent.
Santorum received more lobbyist money than any other Senator in 2006, just before getting the boot in one of the largest losses in election history (19%).
$477,000 in lobbyist money in 2006.
In the top 3 most corrupt Senators according to Crew for 2006.
He is embedded in K Street.
He is also an extremely ignorant man and dangerous because of that ignorance.
http://gunnyg.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/ayatollah-santorum-the-sanctimonious-ass-by-thomas-dilorenzo-3/
Ian62
(604 posts)are 900,000 virtual twitter accounts he paid to have set up, to pretend he had a base!
Ian62
(604 posts)does have a base.
And GOP elites don't like that one bit
Ian62
(604 posts)Even the Tea Party does not exist any more in any meaningful way.
They can't decide who to vote for - see polls showing the split vote of "Tea Party supporter".