Super Tuesday: Can Hillary Clinton Deal a Fatal Blow to Bernie Sanders?

[SidDithers]

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/super-tuesday-can-hillary-clinton-deal-fatal-blow-bernie-sanders-n528731

Clinton's delegate goldmines

Clinton is running 30 points ahead of Sanders in the two largest Super Tuesday states, Texas and Georgia, and 20 points head in the third biggest, Virginia. If those margins hold, Clinton won't just win the day, but run-up massive delegate hauls, especially in Texas, which has more than the next two states combined. And though they have fewer delegates, Clinton is also likely to take a disproportionate share of the spoils from Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

Sanders' five target states — Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont and Oklahoma — hold a combined 288 delegates to Clinton's 571, so even a very good performance for him still may not be good enough. Vermont, for instance, where Sanders might sweep every delegate, has only 16 to offer.

Sid

[tazkcmo]

1. Can The DNC/DLC/Third Way Ignore Bernie Sanders Supporters And Remain Viable? n/t

[randome]

7. From what I understand, voting is undertaken by voters.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]"If you're bored then you're boring." -Harvey Danger[/center][/font][hr]

[Armstead]

18. Voters subjected to propaganda, lies and lack of necessary information from the media

[HillareeeHillaraah]

86. You really believe the media hasn't said enough about Hillary?

I think EVERYBODY has heard it all! Everything negative that could possibly be stated about Hillary Clinton has been printed, broadcasted, and blogged.

And she's still the stronger candidate.

Bernie Sanders is a wonderful Senator who should stay in the Senate.

[tazkcmo]

40. That's what I heard.

So, with registered Democrats making up 30% of registered voters (and shrinking) can they remain viable without Sanders supporters?

[FSogol]

27. An anecdotal story about today's primary in VA. A story of slacktivism!

My son is a sophomore at VCU in Richmond, but his home is in No Va. About a month ago, he requested a absentee ballot, received it, filled it out, voted for HRC, and sent it back. He called this morning to make sure his brother was going to vote. His brother (who is also planning on voting for HRC), was surprised that the younger one didn't vote for Sanders.

My younger son claimed that while he liked Sanders, Sander's revolution was an illusion. He said that on campus, everyone loves Sanders and talks about him nonstop, but none of his supporters are voting. They aren't registered, didn't request absentee ballots, don't have time to vote, don't know where to vote, etc. etc. He couldn't find a Sanders supporter that actually voted.

Super Tuesday is the beginning of the end for Sanders' candidacy.

[Koinos]

39. GOTV is the real issue.

The big story today may be voter turnout numbers for Sanders. Do huge crowds and rallies translate to actual votes? Millennials can't vote from their keyboards.

[FSogol]

49. So, you're suggesting that registering your supporters to vote is somehow more important than

creating snarky web graphics and flooding twitter? Who knew?

[Koinos]

60. Yep. As odd as it might seem to some...

A political revolution in a democracy can't happen with low voter turnout.

The Sanders campaign needs less rhetoric and more GOTV.

The numbers will tell the story this evening.

[brooklynite]

87. So you're saying that the vote in the Facebook poll didn't count?

[DrDan]

94. in 2014, 1 in 5 under 30 voted

in 2012 (the last presidential election), only 1 in 4 under 30 voted

they just do not vote

[FSogol]

95. I know, I was a Gary Hart supporter. All the youth were going to turn out. It was going to be

awesome!

[NCTraveler]

2. K&R

The map heavily favors Clinton, with most of the 880 delegates in play coming from states with large African-American populations, among whom Clinton beat Sanders 3-to-1 in earlier contests in Nevada and South Carolina.

[HooptieWagon]

10. Get them out of the way early.

Then on to the remaining 35 states.

[NCTraveler]

12. Get who out of the way early?

"Get them out of the way early."

[HooptieWagon]

14. Conservative Southern states.

[NCTraveler]

17. Good Idea.

Let progressives fighting in these states build momentum for us. I like it. They are some of the most hardened progressives and our best.

[Tarc]

19. Any particular reason you prefer to disavow the Southern black voters?

Is this a new strategy?

[HooptieWagon]

25. Black? I made no mention of Black voters.

[NCTraveler]

28. It's not a stretch.

Look at my post you replied to. It's simply clear as day.

[tazkcmo]

43. It is a stretch.

The poster no where mentions individual voters or blocks of voters but specifically mentions southern conservative states that will go to the GOP in the election.

[HooptieWagon]

46. "Clear as day"?

Only to those with selective vision seeking to be poutraged. Keep looking, I'm sure you'll find satisfaction somewhere on the Internet.

[NCTraveler]

52. I'm not sure what my level of satisfaction has to do with any of this.

Pretty satisfied with my life. I'm not satisfied with the treatment of those you so easily dismiss.

[Kall]

81. You guys see what you want to see.

Not surprising from a campaign that does things like fear-monger that Bernie Sanders' plan for universal Medicare will dismantle Medicare.

[Lizzie Poppet]

63. Which significantly biases things by according momentum to the conservative option.

Horrible...

[Armstead]

21. And how many of those states are Democrats likely to carry in the fall?

This Southern Strategy may work in the primaries, but she's likely to get skunked in many of those states in the fall

[NCTraveler]

26. Almost all of the voters being referenced are democrats.

The message you are promoting doesn't sound as good as you think it does. In fact, it's outright dismissal.

[Armstead]

41. It is dismissal in response to the tone set in this campaign

I actually do agree with a 50 state strategy. But since "realism" is the supposed theme of this election, it is not realistic to weigh the primary so heavily on states where Democrats have little or no chance of actually winning.

Clinton was dismissive of AA voters in 2008. This time her marketing campaign is different, but I have to be cynical about the sincerity of her campaign's concern....I have a feeling the Clinton campaign is not going to be as committed to the people in those states in the General Election....They too are going to focus on sttes where they can get Electoral College wins.

[HooptieWagon]

30. 12% turnout like SC...

...and none of the southern states will even come close to being purple.

[Orsino]

3. Not immediately fatal.

Sanders is pledged to stay in the race, pushing uphill as he always has. Clinton wold no doubt prefer an early coronation, but she's going to have to battle it out to the convention, where relative numbers of delegates are the currency.

Best wishes to both sides.

[hack89]

20. Can't see it going to the convention

there will be a point well before the convention where it is clear that Bernie does not have a chance to win. There is not going to be a floor fight at the convention. He might keep campaigning but the more likely outcome is that he will trade dropping out for a key speaking slot at the convention.

[Armstead]

22. The DLC, er DNC, will give him a prime 3 a.m. speaking slot I'm sure

[hack89]

24. You don't think too highly of Bernie's negotiating skills and political acumen, do you? nt

[Armstead]

31. I think very highly of them -- But I see how receptive the DLC, er, DNC is

They don't want anyone breaking into their private club and opening any windows

Bernie could be the greatest negotiator in the world, but arrayed against that smug cadre of embedded insiders, the deck has always been stacked

[hack89]

36. We will see what happens

Bernie has to be smart as to how he will end his campaign. It has to end on a graceful positive note to not undo all the good he has done.

[Orsino]

34. It always goes to the convention...

...when there are multiple candidates who have not yet dropped out. Their delegates are how the various deals are transacted.

It's how we build tickets and cabinets, and where nominees get their marching orders.

[hack89]

45. It is more likely that one candidate will hit the threshold before the convention

in a two person race. This is where the super delegates really come into play - once it is clear that Bernie has no path to the nomination, all the undecided super delegates will declare for Hillary to ensure the convention is not messy and that the party can cleanly transition to the general election. He may not formally drop out but he does have to handle how he ends his campaign with care. It has to end on a graceful positive note if he expects to have any influence at the convention.

[Orsino]

48. What I think I'm hearing...

...is that one candidate must disarm unilaterally in order to negotiate from strength? No, that's not how it works.

Oh, the best possible face would certainly be put on all deals for the sake of the appearance of party unity. Deals could be struck in private in advance of the convention, and we'd be none the wiser, but one of our candidates has already pledged otherwise. I would expect no less from Clinton, even if she somehow wound up in second place again.

Primaries are exhausting, and I understand the desire to be done with it early. Serious candidates and campaigners, however, know that there's no way around a lot more hard work.

[hack89]

53. Bargaining from a position of weakness is never easy

primary math is very clear cut. It will be obvious pretty soon whether Bernie is performing at a level good enough to win. I doubt it will happen. So while Bernie should keep campaigning, he has to be careful. He has to answer the question "why are you still running" in a way that doesn't come across as misguided, petty or egotistical. Because if he is seen as doing nothing more than damaging the eventual nominee then there will be a fierce backlash. He can't make it all about Bernie - he has to be seen as supportive of the party in getting a Dem into the White House.

[Orsino]

54. These are indeed all factors...

...in whatever the party heads hammer out at the convention.

[hack89]

55. Bernie is a smart man

having chosen to run as a Democrat, I think he will do what he can to support Hillary. I suspect that he will be rewarded in some manner - a choice speaking slot, input into administration positions, help with campaign debt, etc.

I would love to be a fly on the wall for those talks.

[Orsino]

56. I would be afraid of what I would overhear as that fly...

...but the temptation would be irresistible.

[mikehiggins]

92. The media and the HRC surrogates are pushing this line. However, if Obama

had listened to the same arguments we'd be talking about Sarah Palin's run for the White House.
Sanders supporters WANT a convention fight. The campaign has enough money to keep going at least until then, and if it needs more, we'll send more.

And, if the HRC campaign ends up depending on the Supers the wheeling and dealing will make your head spin.

It ain't over till the bald guy says its over.

See you at the convention.

[hack89]

93. Bernie is not going on a kamikaze mission at the convention to please you

There will be a convention fight only if Bernie gets enough delegates. If Hillary hits the delegate threshold before the convention then it doesn't matter what the Sanders supporters want - they won't have any leverage.

Bernie is not a fool - he will know when he realistically has no chance of winning. He will then make a reasonable decision that will not hurt the party as they transition to the general election. He is not going to the convention to disrupt.

[CajunBlazer]

23. Maybe Hillary needs Bernie still in the race....

...to continue to get the media attention and I'm sure that Bernie wants to continue get his message out.

[hack89]

29. But there is a point where things start to get silly

and that is when every one agrees that he has no chance to win. If his message is to emphasize his policies to influence Clinton, then good. If his message is to simply bash Clinton then he comes across as petty and mean spirited. He has to play this smart.

[Jester Messiah]

4. You'd better hope not, unless you like the idea of President Trump. [nt]

[datguy_6]

5. Nope...got 43 million reasons to think otherwise...

Watch for her campaign to release their anemic fundraising numbers tonight during the media coronation...

Her campaign is in trouble and won't have the resources to fight a protracted nomination fight, hence the full-court press from her campaign and supporting PACs like NARAL and Planned Parenthood...

[rocktivity]

6. Hillary didn't throw in the towel after HER first Super Tuesday

and you in the national media never complained about it. So cut the comedy -- the M$M wants Hillary and Trump to win because they've got the biggest campaign advertising coffers.


rocktivity

[BreakfastClub]

8. Probably not tonight, but soon, before the end of the month. nt

[beachbum bob]

9. simple answer, no

too many primaries left to go and the fact that sanders really enjoys the spot light and as long as he has supporters contributing and people to attend he will still in the race even when hillary has 70-75% of the delegates. This NOT a bad thing as the issues that sanders brings to the table are the issues that define the differences between conservatives and us....no matter how sander's supporters want to complain about hillary, in the end she is still 1000's of times better than ANY conservative sitting in the whitehouse and that is what MATTERS

[Kablooie]

11. All signs point to yes ....

But in this election those signs have all been pointing in the wrong direction so everything is up in the air.

[NurseJackie]

13. I never understood this "strategy". He'll need more DELEGATES, not little state "wins" if ...

... he actually expects to win the nomination.

Hmmm... maybe he's not expecting to win the nomination.

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[potone]

35. Little state wins?

Like California?

[NurseJackie]

38. Why yes... obviously "little states" like California... that's exactly what I mean. :-P

[potone]

61. That was your wording, not mine.

[NurseJackie]

77. That was your comparison, not mine, ya silly goose! :-P

PS: Look at the calendar. Today is March 1st. California's primary will be on June 7th, not on Super Tuesday.


Go, Hillary! We love you!

[potone]

97. I am well aware of when the California primary will be held. I live on the west coast.

You are the one who wrote that he needed more delegates, not little states, to win, and that maybe he doesn't want to win the nomination. What I was pointing out, perhaps not explicitly enough for you to understand, is that the Super Tuesday primaries will not determine who gets the nomination, despite the fact that some Hillary supporters seem to think that he should drop out after today, and disregard the fact that the majority of the delegates will not have been chosen by the end of the day.

And by the way, I am not a "silly goose." It is precisely that kind of ignorant, smug and derisive comment that makes it hard for Sanders supporters to even consider voting for Hillary should she win the nomination. If you expect us to rally around her for the GE, you better change the way you speak to us now.

[NurseJackie]

98. The topic-du-jour is Super Tuesday. :-P

some Hillary supporters seem to think that he should drop out after today, and disregard the fact that the majority of the delegates will not have been chosen by the end of the day.

Some may, but I think the general consensus is that we'll be even more certain that Bernie will not be the nominee.

And by the way, I am not a "silly goose."

Oh, I kid with love. I thought it was fairly obvious that I was referring to today's Super Tuesday states and the mistake (whether intentional or unintentional) was amusing to me. It looked as though you were teasing, so I teased-ya-back... but, I see that I failed to do so explicitly enough for you to understand.

Considering the aggressiveness of your posts, it would be impossible for me to know that you were so sensitive, and I sincerely apologize for hurting your feelings.

It is precisely that kind of ignorant, smug and derisive comment that makes it hard for Sanders supporters to even consider voting for Hillary should she win the nomination. If you expect us to rally around her for the GE, you better change the way you speak to us now.

I find it difficult to believe that any rational person would choose to not vote, because they were offended by something that an anonymous individual posted on a political web site. My best guess is that if someone is old enough to vote, then they're probably mature enough to make smarter choices.

But, I'm sure that folks like that probably do exist, and I'm equally sure that they exist in such small numbers that their vanities wouldn't matter one way or the other. Besides, if they're willing to publicly "admit" that they're "not voting" for Hillary because they felt mistreated by strangers, then it's exceedingly likely that they wouldn't have voted for Hillary under any circumstances.

So that's where we stand. A little misunderstanding at first, but now that we've talked it all out, I'm sure we understand each other much better now. Friends?

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[oasis]

37. As long as his surrogates tone down their anti Hillary rhetoric

It's no big deal if his campaign hangs around until the convention.

Hillary has already focused her attention on Trump. Today's results should put Bernie in her rear view mirror for keeps.

[tazkcmo]

47. lol

Tone down his anti-Hillary rhetoric in a campaign against Hillary? Like SHE did in 2008 and now in 2016 while she increases her anti-Bernie rhetoric? Not likely. And then there's the small matter of an ongoing private email investigation. Better to wait for the Convention and use his delegates to gain some support for his positions even if he loses. The DLC/Third Way needs his supporters' votes whether they like it or not.

[oasis]

59. Keep your e-mail hopes alive. Get some lottery ticket too.

[tazkcmo]

99. Your assumptions are just that.

You assume I want Sec Clinton to be guilty. That would be incorrect. Just the dog and pony show of this is enough to taint her (even more?) with the voting public that's already not voting in huge droves. If the DNC's goal is to reduce Democratic Party membership even more, they're on the right path.

[MineralMan]

15. Not a knockout blow, but a stunning one.

The delegate count will be updated here tomorrow:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

[NurseJackie]

42. Hi!

[revmclaren]

96. Thanks for the link MM

[silvershadow]

16. Bernie is in it all the way to convention.

I hope everyone can get used to this idea

[virtualobserver]

32. I think that Bernie will win Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador.....

and will be our new Prime Minister.

[mcar]

33. K&R

[EndElectoral]

44. We always knew the Dixie states, lost in the GE, would go for Clinton. It's what happens after today

However, Colorado, Minnesota, Massachusetts, Vermont and Oklahoma may show markers for Bernie going forward. The big industrial states will be revealing.

I don't put much stock in these states like Texas and Alabama that are going Republican in the GE anyway. They swung to the GOP after Civil Rights reforms in the 60's and are never coming back. Certainly not with HRC.

[alarimer]

50. Some of us with late primaries would like a chance to vote.

To hell with the calls to drop out.

[RoccoR5955]

51. Sanders is in it until the convention.

Let's get these states out of the way, so that we can have the states where Bernie SLAUGHTERS Clinton come around, then see what Camp Weathervane has to say.

[tk2kewl]

57. Since there are ~20% of total delegates in play, no

the rest of us would also like to have a vote

[Corey_Baker08]

65. Actually Per NBC News 1/3 Of Delegates Are At Stake That Would Be 33%

Am I Correct?

[tk2kewl]

66. ...

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/27/468249702/super-tuesday-heres-what-you-need-to-know

How many delegates are up for grabs?

1,460 (865 for Democrats, 595 for Republicans). For Democrats, there are an additional 150 unpledged delegates, otherwise known as "superdelegates," in Super Tuesday states. They are free to vote however they want at the national convention this summer. With superdelegates added in, Super Tuesday represents 22 percent of all delegates.

[Svafa]

58. Regardless of what happens today,

the Sanders campaign is rolling in cash--more than enough to keep going WELL past today.

[Corey_Baker08]

62. Yes We Can!

[whatchamacallit]

64. The headline is incomplete. Let me fix it

Super Tuesday: Can Hillary Clinton Deal a Fatal Blow to Bernie Sanders and 99% of the American people?

You're welcome.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

67. For 15 years, Hillary Clinton has been part of a secretive religious group that seeks to bring Jesus

This is what you want?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

68. Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton is attending a fundraiser Tuesday night with a l

or this

[SoLeftIAmRight]

69. Hillary Clinton grew up in a Methodist household, she taught Methodist Sunday school like her mother

maybe this

[SoLeftIAmRight]

70. Hillary Clinton isn’t much given to talking about religion while on the campaign trail, but she veer

check this one out

[SoLeftIAmRight]

71. NBC News reports on an obscure and mysterious religious group known as The Fellowship and one of its

this will make you happy

[SoLeftIAmRight]

72. Hillary Clinton Fundraises with Leader of Alien Religious Group

want more

[DCBob]

73. I think Hillary comes out of today with at least a 130 delegate gain.

The biggest blow to Sanders would be if he lost Massachusetts along with all the other Clinton states. That would be the big story of the night. That will have lasting effects and likely be the end of any real legitimate challenge to Hillary.

[SidDithers]

75. He'll be a candidate in name only...

but the real race will be over.

Sid

[SoLeftIAmRight]

83. You going to the prayer breakfast?

...

[SheenaR]

84. I'll take 130

All day

150+ then that's a little different.

He's going to pick up 60-70 back between 3/22 and NY

NY and beyond if it's under 100 I think it's a race.

Mich, Ill, Florida and Ohio could set that all back too.

Re: Mass. If Bernie wins the delegate share isn't going to be big anyways and vice versa. It's a state he could have used a convincing win in I'll agree.

Shred away

[DCBob]

89. What about...

"Michigan, Mississippi, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio" prior to 3/22?

I think Hillary picks up another 100 there more than offsetting any Bernie gains between 3/22 and NY.

Then NY.. Hillary picks up another big chunk.

Then CA.. toss up?

Then NJ.. Hillary wins big there too.

In the end Hillary wins by 300+ delegates.. without the Supers.

[SheenaR]

90. I am of the belief that Mich, Missouri and Ohio

Will not let the tally get out of hand.

And that NY is not a foregone conclusion.

So that's where our math differs.

But listen, mine is based on a lot more things having to fall into place than yours so I would not be surprised if it ends the way you say.

[DCBob]

91. Yes, possibly.

Who knows for sure what exactly will happen. Its certainly has been a remarkable unusual campaign so far.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

74. The quiet unshakable faith of Hillary Clinton ...

God will save us

[SoLeftIAmRight]

76. Doug Coe, The Fellowship, Hillary Clinton and Why You Should Care. ... I’m troubled by any religious

it will be ok - right?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

78. Since Hillary Clinton’s Tenure, the State Department Has Pursued Greater Religious Engagement

I'm sure you will like this one!

[SoLeftIAmRight]

79. Hillary's Prayer: Hillary Clinton's Religion and Politics

you going to pray with her?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

80. Hillary's Ties to Religious Fundamentalists. ... when she joined a Bible study group composed of wiv

you could join them

[SoLeftIAmRight]

82. Family prayer group of Republican congressmen and former secretary

can you explain this?

[PufPuf23]

85. The southern states Clinton is likely to win today on Super Tuesday are likely to go GOP

in the final election for POTUS.

I find it interesting to watch Democratic versus GOP vote totals in the primaries.

I expect that Sanders will get maybe only 40-45% of the Democratic delegates today but will win or do better in the states likely to go Democratic in the final election for POTUS.

Super Tuesday Democratic primaries are not that important this year because of this pattern.

Should the GOP split where there is a third candidate in the general election Sanders would benefit more than Clinton IMO.

[DrDan]

88. of course not - just an incremental step in that direction