To those who think after tonight it'll be over for Bernie

[TDale313]

And his supporters will disappear or be silenced: It ain't over, these issues are still going to be here, and we're not going to be silenced.

[nadinbrzezinski]

1. Not only that, but she needs to win EVERY STATE by overwhelming numbers

to become unassailable, In other words she needs to run the same way Trump needs to, Actually Trump can afford a few closer races than she can.

Bernie wins a few states, this goes on, and leave the hyper conservative region of the country.

It is truly a math problem... the media never, ever explains this.

As to the issues, they are not done... they started to fester at least with OWS... much earlier than that,.

[hack89]

7. Save this link

538 has estimated how many delegates each candidate would need in each primary contest to win the nomination. It then tracks how successful each is in reaching their target goals. It is simple math. If Bernie doesn't make his targets in each state then he can't mathematically win. The problem for him is that Hillary will pile up some blow out wins but any Bernie win will be much closer (except VT). Since delegates are awarded proportionally, roughly splitting the delegates post Super Tuesday doesn't help Bernie. That is why people make such a big deal about Super Tuesday - it puts him in a big hole and requires even bigger victories in subsequent states just to pull even.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

Right now he is under performing.

[nadinbrzezinski]

13. And then there is NH

where Nate said he would perform not as well as he did.

And surprised Nate Silver. Why I prefer to wait until the damn fucking votes are counted, I expect this to continue and not be over by tonight. Hell, this is as distant as can be, but actually I would give it a percentage point or two of actually happening right now, but this might go to California, depending on the next two weeks.

And if there is an indictment in the offing... and Podesta now attacking the investigation (how watergate of him), guess what skippy, your party has a Sanders problem. Ah the things that make this season so much fun to watch, and scary at the same time.

[hack89]

16. You didn't read the link, did you? Nate is not making predictions here

he has laid out the easiest path for Bernie to win. This tool is simply to allow you to track Bernie's progress as the primaries progress.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Yes I did, and Nate has also noted that he was wrong on the performance in NH

and like the rest of us, was surprised at that blow out.

So I will repeat myself WAIT UNTIL THE DAMH VOTES are counted.

[hack89]

25. This tool counts the DAMH VOTES. That is all it does. nt

[Phlem]

38. Dude, is she not saying the things you want to hear?

I'm going to wait for the effing votes too.

[hack89]

65. I take it you didn't bother to look at the tool either? Nt

[Phlem]

67. I know all about the tool. I've also worked with lots of math programmers

in my 20 + years of 3d games and guess what, they can be wrong too. No they don't walk on water, even if they're excellent at math, and I had to fire a lead programmer because he could his shit done even after our company sunk a boat load of cash into his prototype.

I ended up doing his work for him w/o coding and found ways around his roadblocks.

He did talk a good talk though.

[JDPriestly]

68. "might go to California." We have 546 delegates.

We should be the first to have our primary.

This primary is a travesty. The most conservative and middle-of-the-road states vote first and the press reports a conservative victory.

This stinks. I'm in California, and this primary schedule stinks.

Our 546 delegate votes are just a joke because the election, the primary in California will be held only after people think that Hillary has won.

It's just a travesty.

And today, states like Alabama vote -- states that don't vote solidly Democratic in presidential campaigns but that rather are as conservative as can be.

I've been warning about this all along.

People need to read the history of the Weimar Republic in Germany and the Schuschnigg government in Austria. Democracies that failed because they could not deal with the economic pressures on ordinary people. What followed? Hitler.

I think that Hillary is another Schuschnigg or Weimar Republic in the making. DUers, you have been warned.

[nadinbrzezinski]

71. Yup

And I need to add something else. The email scandal is closer to breaking legally. When I get home will send you the links

[renate]

86. I honestly don't want her to lose the primary because of the emails

And I most certainly don't want her to lose the general election because of them, that's for sure.

What I really want is for the MSM to point out that all her wins in the deep South, where few states would go Democratic in the general election anyway, does not mean that this primary is over, in any way, shape, or form.

A fair primary, where DWS doesn't have her thumb on the scales and where acknowledgment is made in the media and by the DNC that Bernie is much more popular outside the South, is what I would love to see and what I am not going to get.

[nadinbrzezinski]

87. If this is going to break

I want it to break BEFORE the convention, and they are on that timeline at DOJ.

As to the southern conservative states being front loaded, this is a problem that will not be solved anytime soon, but sooner or later it will have to be. Because this leads to bad weak candidates.

For those who will scream Obama, he was able to overcome the Clinton Machine since he is quite talented.

[Garrett78]

15. It is indeed a math problem.

And the math says there's no path to the nomination for Sanders and Cruz (or Kasich or Carson, as if they need mentioning). Rubio still has a chance, but Trump vs. Clinton is the likely outcome. Months ago you could look at the first 25 or 30 primaries/caucuses and see that there was little chance Sanders would win more than a handful of them. He's doing a little better than expected, but it's not enough. The demographics are not in his favor. New England states can only do so much for him, and the Pacific Northwest is too late to be relevant.

[nadinbrzezinski]

24. Which is part of the problem

that we front load, on purpose, the most conservative region of the country. Oh and by the way, what I said about a possible indictment. there is likely movement in that direction, Podesta attacking the investigation today tells me they something on background, and likely we are seeing movement.

So we may see a nice party elder talk with her. like the Rs had with Nixon.

I do not discount that one at all. And if this happens before the convention, you have a Sanders problem. Hey, it is your fucking party, who you nominate is your business. but who you nominate might not be able to get to the WH for legal reasons. So that alone... well... best for the country and all that.

I vote in an an open primary state, so if the Martians were running a candidate well I could, and forget natural born problems here, so choices, choices choices, and how to be strategic with the fucking vote.

[Dont call me Shirley]

62. Rubio has NOOOOOOO chance. Cruz maybe will stay in to the bitter end in case Trump gets in

trouble.

[Garrett78]

83. Rubio has a slim chance. It's Cruz who has no chance.

Rubio could still win if he wins the big winner-take-all states that are upcoming, but that's unlikely. As for Cruz, he has no path to the nomination. He did much worse in South Carolina and elsewhere than he needed to do. 538 keeps a running tab of where candidates need to be at this point. Entering Super Tuesday, Trump is at 114% of where he needed to be at this point, Rubio is at 41% and Cruz is at 21%. It's not about the total number of delegates but about where they should be given the states that have voted thus far.

Edit: That said, Cruz is having a better-than-expected night so far. Still, 538 reports that oddsmakers have Rubio at 11% to win the nomination and Cruz up to 5% (and Trump at 81%) with Clinton at 96% (and 64% to win the presidency).

[jg10003]

59. Bernie needs 1670 pledged delegates to force a convention fight

Among the states yet to vote: California, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Florida

The fight is far from over.

[tk2kewl]

2. and there are still 34 more states that need to vote

we ain't going nowehere

[Le Taz Hot]

31. These people are fucking unbelievable!

They keep chanting "let the people decide!" Yes, let them decide. All of them, including CALIFORNIA!

Jesus, haven't even counted a vote yet and even some soft Bernie supporters are caving already.

[tk2kewl]

34. give em good shake and point them to this...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280130874

[kath]

79. And point them to this:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511382590

[fleur-de-lisa]

3. And most of us have come no where near reaching the limit on how much we can donate

to Bernie's campaign.

Whereas Hillary has only Wall Street and the Mega Banksters to hit up for money.

I personally plan to money bomb Bernie after every town hall/debate and every primary.

We aren't going ANYWHERE ! ! !

[marions ghost]

32. +++!!!

yep

[Blue_In_AK]

82. Oh, yeah, I could still give him a lot of money.

I'm glad my one and only credit card was paid down over the past few years so I can run it up for Bernie.

[question everything]

4. I hope it will not

It is important to continue the dialogue until, well, the convention. I hate coronation. I did not like it in 2008 when Obama was, after Iowa, and I hope it won't happen with Hillary anytime soon.

Plus... we can show the rest of the country how different candidates with different agendas debate and discuss with no high school bullying.

[elleng]

5. I'll repeat JD's earlier post:

How many will be decided today? How many next week? How many in April? May? June?

See THIS post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=334589

California has 546 delegates to the Democratic Convention -- AND WE DO NOT VOTE UNTIL JUNE 7.

Oregon and Washington states have not voted yet either.

Neither has New York.

Giving a win to Hillary so early in the game and based on votes in VERY CONSERVATIVE STATES practically disenfranchises those of us who live in states that don't vote until the end of the primary.

And we are the many.

And we are the most progressive, most liberal states.

California, Florida, Texas and New York are the immigrant states. We are the most populated states.

Texas votes today. (252 delegates)

But . . . .

Florida votes on March 15. (246 delegates)

New York votes on April 19. (291 delegates)

California does not vote until June 7. (546 delegates)

I haven't even mentioned Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, etc.

http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/

The conservative states vote first, thus creating the sense of a momentum toward the most conservative candidates.

Today, Hillary Clintonn will win big. Never mind that the Southern states that are among the small states she will win will never, ever yield a majority for her in November. Never mind that the votes of Californians who are excited about Bernie will probably be swept into the sea by the media's declaration of a Hillary momentum suddenly starting after today.

No wonder we can never get anywhere. No wonder our Congress is deadlocked and our society headlocked.

Our primary system is even more rigged than our economy.

It's rigged to nominate conservative candidates who represent rural, sometimes isolated areas in Iowa, New Hampshire and the South and not the majority of Americans who live in states like New York, California, Florida and, yes, Texas.

Our system is rigged to give the people who live in small states a bigger voice in selecting our candidates than is at all fair or reasonable.

Thus far, the states that have voted are small and relatively conservative. Yes. Compared to California???? Yes. Conservative.

We the people of California do not vote until June 7.

There is no momentum for any candidate until we have voted.

I am disgusted that people think that the election in ignorant South Carolina, the state that began the Civil War, the state of slavery and the legacy it has left the entire South has any significance beyond itself in our country. South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina -- haven't voted for a Democrat in more than 20 years. And they won't vote for the Democrat this year.

California has 546 delegates. We count. This game is not over until we have voted.

I am disappointed that Thom Hartmann is joining in on the conservative chorus that would like to decide the nominee before we with our 546 (and if I could but that in large type I would) delegates have had our say.

Please don't fall for the conservative media propaganda that will argue that the contest is over before the big, liberal states vote. That's what has driven our country toward media consolidation (big prize this time is internet neutrality) and big bank consolidation (dangerous for our country) and disenfranchisement of liberals.

Please. Stop this.

[hack89]

12. The flaw in your logic is that neither will get a blow out victory in California

so while California has a lot of delegates, the net delegates for the winner will not be that great and will not likely influence the race. In a proportional delegate system, the margin of victory is what matters. A bunch of blow out victories for Hillary early in the process makes things that much harder for Bernie as he now has to win subsequent states with even greater victory margins.

[elleng]

18. My (and JD's) 'logic' is

that there are many other states yet to come.

[hack89]

21. Once Super Tuesday is over it will be easy to calculate what Bernie has to do

they will calculate how many delegates behind he is, determine where he can get delegates, and calculate the required margins of victory to actually win those delegates.

They won't tell you this but Sanders will know by tomorrow if he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning the nomination. The math is simple.

[madfloridian]

33. .....

[Tarc]

6. You can be as loud or as silent as you choose to be

You candidate just won't be the nominee.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

11. This is not decided yet. Let the other states have their say. n/t

[andrewv1]

23. Well, I think I would still bet on Bernie more than a FBI Recommended Indictment not being made

[SammyWinstonJack]

55. Ugh.

[liberalnarb]

57. This isn't about Bernie.

Its about the issues. The enthusiasm generated by this campaign and the passion about the important issues isn't going anywhere. The nominee isn't decided yet.

[Arazi]

8. Thanks! Time to donate again to keep that train rolling!

[LongTomH]

9. Quoting that great Zen master -Yogi Berra: "It ain't over till it's over"

[Garrett78]

10. As far as the nomination goes, it was over before it began.

Sanders was never going to become the nominee. Without Biden or some other establishment threat entering the race, Clinton was a shoe-in. I've said for months that the race will essentially be over by mid-March (after the primaries on the 15th of this month). If Vermont is the only state Sanders wins tonight, then the race will essentially be over 2 weeks earlier than expected.

None of which effects the need for Sanders to keep attempting to hold Clinton accountable as best he can. And Sanders can also use the coming weeks to focus on the insanity that is Trump and Rubio (since the latter still has a slim chance at winning the Republican Party nomination). Whatever can be done to weaken them (and keep Clinton on her toes) will help.

[Phlem]

42. Sorry, some of us will always question authority.

Especially when it comes to camp weathervain.

sing it as loud as you want, I'm not buying it, not even for a fucking penny.

[Garrett78]

47. It's basic math.

Note that I'm not a Clinton fan, but the math is the math. The state of US politics and the current demographics are such that Clinton is a shoe-in, and always was minus an establishment threat such as Biden (or Obama in '08). Sanders can certainly keep running, but he will not be the nominee.

[Trajan]

53. We shall see

Many states to vote yet ...

[Phlem]

60. Right, I've worked with programmers for 20 + years

deep in math, heavy geometry and physics are required for the game industry and guess what, those brilliant programmers can be completely wrong.

But I'm sure you know that cause your such a huge math fan.

[metroins]

66. More people back Hillary

No geometry or physics needed.

[Phlem]

70. you have that data set to prove it? Because

in the conservative area where I live I've only seen Republican and Bernie Bumper stickers. Zero Hillary, know one even talks about her at the local stores. And by the way the population is huge as we're 10 minutes away from the Microsoft campus.

There's a large contingent of Bernie voters I'm sure you've accounted for right? You know where each and everyone of them are?

No.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511378576

[metroins]

75. Sure

Just look at National polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

That was pretty easy.

[Phlem]

89. Polls?

[metroins]

90. Oh I'm sorry

I'll look at the results of tonight.

Look, I'm not anti Bernie. I'm pro Hillary.

Bernies not a bad guy, I just prefer Hillary.

[Shadowflash]

73. There will be no holding HRC 'accountable'

She will say what she she thinks the people want to hear, to get their votes. It's a WELL established and proven track record.

If she wins and Sanders drops out. and there IS no accounting, she'll shift, again, and say what she thinks the general public wants to hear to get their votes.

Every time the suckers will buy it. ''She's evolving'' and ''every body has the right to change their minds''. Then, if she wins the election, with NOBODY to hold her accountable she will push the policies she truly supports. The ones she championed BEFORE she was running for president and had to worry about a national election.

She's a proven liar and leopards don't change their spots.

This is my fear.

[randome]

14. No one wants YOU to be silenced.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]"If you're bored then you're boring." -Harvey Danger[/center][/font][hr]

[hack89]

17. This place will be boring if you all disappear. Please stay. nt

[DianaForRussFeingold]

27. I agree!

Bernie supporters please don't give up hope!

"Please stay."

[TheProgressive]

20. Wasn't Clinton supposed to win in 2008?

Just remember that when you are voting and supporting Senator Sanders...!

[Phlem]

46. Oh Yea! That! So many newbie Hillary supporters

ever so much less grey matter we have to deal with.

I swear it's worse than camping and swatting at gnats.

[Garrett78]

48. There's no comparison.

Obama wasn't well to the left of Clinton. Also, Obama's younger and more charismatic than Clinton. Not to mention Obama represented an opportunity to elect the first POC POTUS in US history. And even then Clinton got more votes--it's just that Obama got more delegates (barely).

Obama was seen as a future POTUS back when he gave the keynote address at the '04 convention.

[Gamecock Lefty]

22. I Think Today favors Hillary, but . . .

Bernie will not go away. Nor will his supporters and their constant negative attacks on Hillary.

[Phlem]

49. And some of us have been watching and participating way to long to

to know the difference between facts and negative attacks.

Hillary was being shoved down our throats way before Bernie came into the scene. Who were ya'll slamming then, Elizabeth Warren.

Yea, we know who started BS between Hillary and Bernie, that's why we will NEVER GO AWAY.

Kisses!!!

[SammyWinstonJack]

58. Leave Hillary ALOOOOOOONE!

[UglyGreed]

26. Never give up

and never give in. Even if Bernie bows out many months from now we have young people who are true liberals and progressives which will help pull this country back from the middle right which we have been stuck with most of my life.

[nxylas]

28. 191 reasons not to lose heart

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511339228

Someone posted this earlier in response to a question from me in another thread.

[Le Taz Hot]

29. The rest of us get to vote.

The end.

[madfloridian]

30. He took in almost 45 million in February. That is NOT losing at all.

It's sort of a beginning.

[highprincipleswork]

39. I suppose he's just going to give it back!

[Trust Buster]

35. I don't think it's over tonight.

If Hillary performs as expected tonight, March 15 will still be important with Ohio and Florida up for grabs. If she wins those two, then it's over.

[Garrett78]

41. Unless Vermont is the only state Sanders wins tonight.

In that case, it's over. Otherwise, I agree that mid-March is the nail in the coffin.

Of course, it was over before it began. Sanders was never going to become the nominee.

[Phlem]

43. Flinging poo again?

As expected by a Hillary supporter.

[Garrett78]

51. I'm not a Clinton supporter.

I'm just math/logic/reality-inclined. Rubio has a better chance of beating out Trump than Sanders does of beating out Clinton, and Rubio doesn't have much of a chance. Not wanting that to be true doesn't alter the reality. Sorry.

[Phlem]

63. Same here, I worked with programmers all of my gaming career and guess what I've discovered

They can be completely wrong. As a matter of fact I gave the go ahead to axe our lead programmer because we were so way behind and he was a complete fuckup. I was doing his work w/o coding because he couldn't keep up. But the company still sunk a small fortune on his physics correct stand up bullshit unit.

Transferring that to the PC with bare minimum specs proved too challenging for him, but he talked a good talk.

[Garrett78]

84. The nomination process isn't as complex as physics.

We're talking basic math here.

[Flying Squirrel]

36. ...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280131100

[FailureToCommunicate]

37. Never give up...

[madfloridian]

40. Obama lost 21 states. Hillary did not drop out until June.

[Milliesmom]

44. It's not over

nor will it end tonight, all Bernie's supporters know that, we will keep pushing ahead, it will not be over until Bernie tells us it is over, after all he knows what he is doing.

[yuiyoshida]

45. I just checked, California has its election June 7th

for the primaries, I was worried I would miss the opportunity to vote.

[Cordy]

50. Ok, so what are your issues?

What kind of issues do you have that anyone would want to silence? We need to be vocal, but with the right party, chew on Trump to force him to the left.

[Billsmile]

52. Advice from Hillary

“My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June...”

- Senator Hillary Clinton, 2008.

[jalan48]

54. Only the beginning.

[liberalnarb]

56. KandR but I was absolutely heartbroken tonight

when Bernie released a statement saying he will be packing up his bags if he doesn't do well tonight.

[Le Taz Hot]

74. WTF?

No he didn't!

[JDPriestly]

61. California has 546 delegate votes at the Democratic Convention.

We don't vote until June 6, and no matter what happens before then, we Bernie supporters in California will be campaigning like our lives depend on it. Because they do.

Feel the Bern!

Who cares what happens in Alabama?

They haven't voted Democratic since 1976.

Focusing almost entirely on social issues will never win in Alabama.

Talking about both social and economic issues will improve our Democratic Party's chances there but even that probably won't win for the next couple of decades. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt that I am.

[KauaiK]

64. I only wish Debbie Wassermann Schultz..

the same fate as Lee Atwater who smeared, rigged and hurt so many people. NY, California have not yet voted. We shall see who laughs last.

[freedom fighter jh]

69. Bernie says he's in it till the convention in August.

I believe him. And whatever happens this evening, I think he'll still have a chance at the nomination, because most of the states in which he's projected to do well are still in the future.

If he does not get the nomination, these months campaigning are still time well spent, because Bernie is building his movement, which will be a force to be reckoned with come January 2017.

[Politicub]

72. Why are you even entertaining the thought?

Interesting....

[modestybl]

77. He's got millions of people willing to throw a few bucks into the till every month

He's in it until the convention... we need him to campaign vigorously against Wall Street's gal...

[kstewart33]

78. Hillary supporter here. It's not over.

Far from it. Bernie will have an impact whether he remains competitive in the race or not. That's good for Bernie's supporters and Hillary supporters. I'd expect that Elizabeth Warren will play a key role in the degree and extent of his impact.

[nichomachus]

80. Hillary is winning all the states that will vote solid GOP in November

That will be a big help.

[Blue_In_AK]

81. I would say they're not going to be silenced

even if Hillary wins the nomination. I feel good that the young people are voting for Bernie, and even though I might not be alive to see it, I feel hopeful for the future.

[southerncrone]

85. 35 states yet to go after tonite. Nuff said.

[AgadorSparticus]

88. It is not over. It is still early.

[Babel_17]

91. We're ready

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1397332