The lopsided numbers for Hillary in the South mean Bernie is ahead in the rest of the country.

[reformist2]

Last edited Tue Mar 1, 2016, 10:21 PM - Edit history (1)

Some people are celebrating Hillary's huge wins in South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia.

I say, not so fast. In fact, the numbers indicate it's not something to celebrate at all.

If Bernie is only 4 points behind Hillary nationwide*, but Hillary is ahead of Bernie by 50 points in the South, then the math shows that Bernie is actually 4 points *ahead* in the rest of the country outside the South. It's because too much of Hillary's support was concentrated in so few states. Anyway, interesting result going forward...

*Even I you believe Hillary is ahead by 8 nationwide, this still means she and Bernie are tied in the rest of the country.

[JaneyVee]

1. She's +17 nationally.

[reformist2]

4. LOL, maybe three months ago!

[JaneyVee]

8. The CNN poll was released yesterday.

[reformist2]

12. It's only one poll. At best, her lead is 8 points.

[SCantiGOP]

16. Hope you didn't strain yourself

with that reach.

[Hortensis]

41. It means the forum goes up in flames all over again

Every few days and especially on March 15th. I don't want to suggest that I think I'm blessed St. Honesty myself, but how on earth do people live their life this way? I want to know the truth so I can understand my world. I even like to think I'm tough enough to handle whatever it is with some degree of dignity.

[zappaman]

2. Uh huh.

#berniemath

[yardwork]

3. the points per state are different than the national points.

[wyldwolf]

5. Sounds logical

[onehandle]

6. LOL! This place cracks me up. nt

[reformist2]

10. You'll see. The road ahead for Clinton is very rocky, full of losses.

[firebrand80]

18. I got my popcorn nt

[KingFlorez]

7. That's interesting

[Codeine]

9. Somebody skipped Statistics 101. nt

[reformist2]

11. Do the math and disprove it. It's never good to have all one's eggs in Georgia and South Carolina.

[emulatorloo]

15. It is your assertion, so the burden of proof is on you.

[reformist2]

36. I don't respond to trash-talkers. I may make a new OP discussing the math in detail, however.

[Godhumor]

13. That's not even remotely how this works.

Not even a little bit.

[Tarc]

14. I think someone borrowed Dubya's Fuzzy Calculator

[SCantiGOP]

17. Sshhh

Let them have their fantasy.

[Godhumor]

19. I've never heard of forcing reality to fit polling

It is just a really horrendous misunderstanding of how polling works.

[reformist2]

20. Again, disprove it. If Hillary is overly strong in one region, it means she's weaker everywhere else

[Godhumor]

21. No... Really no

Polling is based on samples and assumptions. Voting is based on actually, you know, voting. If Clinton outperforms it is indicative that the polling itself didn't capture the true measure of her support. You don't, and can't, take real results and try to fit it to polling; it doesn't work that way. At all.

[reformist2]

22. No offense, really, but you don't understand the numbers behind these analyses.

[Godhumor]

23. Please proceed, governor n/t

[SCantiGOP]

24. Godhumor, please

Do not engage in a battle of wits if your opponent is obviously not armed.

[1StrongBlackMan]

27. Oh shit ... The Statistical Analyst doesn't understand statistics ... LOL ...

I think I'm going to buy hundred lottery tickets ... it'll increase my chances of winning by 100%!!!!

Universe ... I love me some numbers!

[anigbrowl]

26. S/he understands them fine. You don't.

You're aggregating results from multiple states and comparing them with national polls as if they were sampling the same population (which is not the same as the general population). Elementary mistake.

[1StrongBlackMan]

28. Correction ... Sophomoric mistake. eom

[anigbrowl]

29. XD

[1StrongBlackMan]

33. XD???

[anigbrowl]

34. :-| :-j :-) :-D XD

[1StrongBlackMan]

38. Ahhh ...

my millennial daughter (the designated internet translator) is back at college ... and she left without setting the clock on my VCR, again!!!!

[anigbrowl]

40. Now now, there's a good chance I'm older than you...

I'm 45*, did I win? did I? Did I? Did I?

* in calendar years. Can't speak for the mental age...

[1StrongBlackMan]

42. I was giving my teachers American History, from a Black Perspective, before ...

you were a twinkling in your parents' eye.

[anigbrowl]

43. Guess I'm just a young 'un then!

[1StrongBlackMan]

45. I was a small assed kid, wise and educated, beyond my years. eom

[1StrongBlackMan]

25. This may be of assistance ...

https://www.bing.com/th?id=A49c4c87928c782a5bd4fc7b8b0f1f91c&w=100&h=150&c=7&rs=1&qlt=80&pcl=f9f9f9&cdv=1&pid=16.1

There is no shame.

[LexVegas]

30. You mean the "math".nt

[auntpurl]

31. That's...not really how math works, I'm afraid

[brush]

32. Huh? That makes absolutely no sense.

[reformist2]

39. It does make sense. If national polls are even, and one candidate is winning half the country, then

it can be inferred that the other candidate is winning in the other half.

[obamanut2012]

47. No, that is absolutely how it doesn't work

[brush]

54. Nope, that doesn't work.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

35. Okay

[Codeine]

37. We should be nice.

Not everyone went to math class, I suppose.

[ozone_man]

44. She's a Reagan Democrat, strong in the South.

So, it is no surprise there.

[1StrongBlackMan]

46. Did anyone tell Iowa and Nevada ...

that the map got re-drawn?

[obamanut2012]

48. lolz

and lolz at your sig line!

[Number23]

49. Massachusetts and Minnesota are now the South too!

[1StrongBlackMan]

50. Come on ... They're virtual ties!!!

[giftedgirl77]

51. #berniemath

[Todays_Illusion]

52. I agree Hillary is going to slide downhill faster than a greased lightening strike. nt

[Liberty Belle]

53. Liberal CA has lots of delegates and they are likely to go for Sanders;

Many of our delegates have remained uncommitted here too (superdelegates) knowing this.

Oregon, Washington, Hawaii are all potential wins for Sanders.