Micah Cohen -538 "It was a super night for Clinton."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

A Super Goodnight
That’s a wrap, everyone! It was certainly a super night for Clinton. It was semi-super for Trump. If you want to relive the Super Tuesday results chronologically, click here to start at the beginning of our live blog and scroll up.

We’ll have a lot more to say on what the Super Tuesday results mean for Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Sanders for you to chew over with your morning croissant. In the meantime, though, here’s where things stand as we shut the lights off on this live blog:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday-primaries-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-11918052

[Garrett78]

1. FWIW, it was Micah Cohen who said that.

And that's Cohen's pic.

But it's safe to say, from following their live blog, everyone at 538 agrees. Clinton will walk away with way more delegates, and many big Clinton-friendly states yet to come.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I need to go to sleep. Thanx for the correction.

[Number23]

3. Everybody on EARTH pretty much sees it that way. Everybody except for the denizens of GDP

who have filled this forum up with how "great" Sanders did because he didn't lose every single state, start openly weeping, scream profanities or any number of other ridiculous comments.

Which is predictable, kind of sad and pretty damned hilarious all at the same time.

[lovemydog]

4. Yup.

I read different sources as I'm sure you do. They're all saying Sanders' path to the nomination got much more narrow. It's apparent merely from viewing the results and the delegate count.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Vermont independent is 194 earned delegates behind

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html


I believe at her nadir in 2008 Secretary Clinton was around 100 delegates behind.

Can someone check please check my information.

Thank you in advance.

[Number23]

17. The international media has basically called it a two horse race now

Between Clinton and ((shudders)) Trump...

[lovemydog]

19. LOL!

With your kind permission I may use your phrase when referring to that narcissistic jerk.

((shudders)) Trump...

[joshcryer]

6. My state went as I predicted.

So I'm happy on that count. The platform will have marijuana legalization in there.

However, I can do math, and expect 538 to hammer it home with their benchmark thing over the next few weeks. The road just got much more difficult.

Sanders will have to dramatically shift the focus to CA and NY and other big delegate states. He can't do what Obama did with hoping for caucus wins and drawing it out. In 2008 Obama had a lot more wiggle room. The focus must be large delegate states and landslide victories. The shift for Sanders, personally, I believe will be getting as many delegates as possible seated at the convention to pressure the platform and get everything he has campaigned for in there. Expect a $15 minimum wage to be virtually guaranteed. Breaking up the banks. Even single payer (probably conditioned as "strengthening ACA" under a public option).

*not in denial*

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. That will be challenging

The focus must be large delegate states and landslide victories.

That will be challenging, if not impossible:

HRC is + 29 in Florida:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_democratic_presidential_primary-3556.html

HRC is +21 in New York:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

HRC is + 19 in Pennsylvania:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html

HRCis + 21 in Ohio:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html

HRC is + 19 in Illinois:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_democratic_presidential_primary-5313.html


HRC is + 19 in North Carolina:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-5175.html


HRC is +14 in California:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

HRC is +19 In Michigan:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_democratic_presidential_primary-5224.html


Senator Sanders is losing the states he is losing now . not because a quirk of the primary calendar, but because they are heterogeneous. The more heterogeneous the state the worse Senator Sanders does. That's an empirical observation and not a normative one.

[stevenleser]

15. And a simple one or two point victory in those states would not be enough. That would be a tie

delegate wise.

Hillary put so much distance between herself and Sanders yesterday that its hard to imagine how he would catch up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I believe PBO came out of Super Tuesday in 08 + 59. HRC came out last night > +200.

[Number23]

18. I was just about to ask what the polls say in response to josh's (really informative) post

Those numbers are pretty confronting right now.

[Adrahil]

8. I think your strategy ideas are right.

Sanders has lost the black vote... BIG. Not for lack of trying, too. But for whatever reason, the black electorate isn;t supporting him.

To have a chance he needs to turn out young voters in YUUUGE numbers and he needs to see if he can make greater inroads with Hispanics. He lost the Hispanic vote by big numbers yesterday, but I think that demo may be more mobile that the AA vote. He has to try if he wants to have anything like a chance.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Primaries and especially Democratic primaries have a rhythm and a flow.

Barack Obama won in 2008 because he mitigated his losses with white voters by overwhelmingly carrying African American ones. Hillary kept it close by winning the smaller Hispanic demographic 2-1.

In this primary season Hillary is winning the African American vote 4-1 and the Hispanic vote 2-1. This dynamic will continue to assert itself whether the state is Texas or New York. I do expect there to be regional differences in voting patterns within these demographics but they will be minor.

[Adrahil]

11. I think that's right....

I don't expect her to win the AA vote in Michigan, Illinois, or New York by the same kind of numbers, but the margin will still be massive. Hillary's strength with Hispanics sealed the deal, I think. Sanders simply cannot win the Democratic nomination on the strength of support of white and young people. He needs a much broader coalition. I just don't see it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. She carried the African American vote in Alabama 92-6. That's mind boggling.

[Adrahil]

14. truly eye-popping. NT

[MSMITH33156]

13. I don't think he lost it

I think Hillary won it. It's unfair to say he doesn't appeal to them. What he ran into was a national figure that has been very openly in support of African-American rights. Bernie has a great track record with African-Americans as well, as he and his supporters have tried to document, but he's still "new" to the national scene.

Hillary and Bill Clinton have extremely high favorables with the African-American community. I'm not sure there was anything he could do to combat a decades long rapport that the Clintons have built up in that community.

[LexVegas]

9. YUUUUGE night! nt