2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSanders Lost Massachusetts in Boston - Very Nearly Literally
Let's put aside the "who should have won," "what polls said last week," "tie, no tie, virtual tie," and all that jazz. Let's look very clearly at what actually happened.
Hillary Clinton received more votes than Bernie Sanders in Massachusetts yesterday: her spread statewide is about 20,000 votes out of nearly 1.2 million cast - razor thin, to be sure. Here's the crazy part: Clinton won Boston proper (the municipal area) by 16 points (58-42) - amounting to just shy of 20,000 votes (71,000+ - 51,000+). She nearly literally won the state in Boston itself.
In fact, Sanders lost many (if not the vast majority) of major and minor cities in Massachusetts. He lost from Boston all the way to Worcester, solid - many of those areas by 20+ points. He lost Lowell, Lawrence, and Lyle. He lost Springfield, by a lot. He lost New Bedford and Fall River and Falmouth. He even lost Pittsfield. Bernie held a major rally in Worcester, so some people thought it would make up the deficit late. It didn't: he lost Worcester. He even lost Cambridge, by 2,000 votes. Did Bernie win at all in greater Boston. Yes. He won in Somerville, Quincy, Weymouth, and Braintree.
Why didn't Sanders message take hold in Boston? Or, really, in the Boston area, or, really, in most of the major population centers?
LexVegas
(6,059 posts)tymorial
(3,433 posts)Not very.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)It's also true that she won some majority white suburbs pretty handily, though.
The near suburbs and municipalities she lost badly (Somerville) or mid-level (Quincy, Weymouth, Braintree) are heavily white (with Braintree, at 94% white, 1% African American) being the most "segregated" of the lot.
stonecutter357
(12,695 posts)Nanjeanne
(4,950 posts)After Kennedy endorsed Obama. That Sanders lost by about 1% and 20,000 votes and only 2 delegate spread is a pretty amazing thing considering how well known and popular Clinton has been in MA.
Of course that doesn't fit with the pundit slant -- so they don't talk about how much better Sanders has done than Obama did.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Still, the big losses in major population areas would seem to cut against a Sanders narrative too, no? How does he lose the city of Boston by 20k votes? It bears explaining.
dchill
(38,472 posts)Doesn't everything? Sanders did 5 points better than Obama.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)But it's hard to have a political revolution if you're losing liberal population centers.
dchill
(38,472 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)You don't just have to win Philly - you have to absolutely crush. You don't just have to win Cuyahoga County - you have to massacre the GOP so badly that it outweighs the rest of the state. You don't just have to win NoVa, you have to dominate. You don't just have to win Clark County, you have to smash it.
Sanders seems incapable of that. He's losing badly in major liberal population centers. It's not a promising sign for the general.
dchill
(38,472 posts)Right? Sanders is connecting just fine, when one considers the mendacious greedballs working for his opposition, and the fawning media only too willing to push their false narrative. And Bill and his bullhorn.
Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #6)
Name removed Message auto-removed
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Hoo-weee!
book_worm
(15,951 posts)up until a week or so ago he was beginning to lead in the polls and then HRC began to catch up. It's also part of his NE base. I feel that HRC also has a good shot at Connecticut.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I remember the Howard Johnson motel had a swimming pool and a sauna. I also remember it was a working class city.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)I thought that was pretty funny.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Hell, I went to college 20 years ago and I'd probably get lost there now.
Northhampton and Amherst were complete ass-kickings, to be sure.
She pulled it out in Holyoke, though.
I'm still perplexed by why Bernie loses Greater Boston so badly.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)You are familiar with Boston politics, right?
Bad Thoughts
(2,522 posts)Which is why Martha Coakely did so poorly in 2010.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Bad Thoughts
(2,522 posts)There is a very well organized set of Democratic organizations, and winning state-wide offices almost explicitly cannot be won without their participation. You can look up Coakley's loss if you want.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Bad Thoughts
(2,522 posts)Like the Pioneer Valley, where I lived for 13 years.
That said, the particulars of the organization are independent of ethnic composition. In the future, do not impugn my motives.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)a pattern that we've seen before, and one that does not require a CT to explain the votes.
Bad Thoughts
(2,522 posts)Like I said, I lived in MA for several years. A worked on several political campaigns, mostly local stuff, but also for the campaigns for Deval Patrick, Wes Clark, John Kerry, and attempts to reverse Goodridge.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)many of the minor and major cities in MA as the article says:
In fact, Sanders lost many (if not the vast majority) of major and minor cities in Massachusetts. He lost from Boston all the way to Worcester, solid - many of those areas by 20+ points. He lost Lowell, Lawrence, and Lyle. He lost Springfield, by a lot. He lost New Bedford and Fall River and Falmouth. He even lost Pittsfield. Bernie held a major rally in Worcester, so some people thought it would make up the deficit late. It didn't: he lost Worcester. He even lost Cambridge, by 2,000 votes.
Punkingal
(9,522 posts)I have always heard that Boston has machine politics, that's all. It really doesn't matter at this point, she won.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)OK.
Still seems like Bernie should do better in population centers, especially liberal-leaning ones. Next time, I guess.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)69-31.
Bad Thoughts
(2,522 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)Wellesley:
HRC: 68.7%
SBS: 30.9
book_worm
(15,951 posts)According to this she did win:
WELLESLEY, MA - Today Wellesley voters flooded the polls to place their picks for the Democratic and Republican nominees.
According to the Wellesley Town Clerks office, Hillary Clinton and John Kasich earned the most votes from their respective parties.
The results are here:
Democratic Presidential Nominee:
Hillary Clinton - 4,099 votes (69 percent)
Bernie Sanders - 1,799 votes (31 percent)
KoKo
(84,711 posts)holding up traffic and blocking voters might have something to do with the low turn out there. I think he went to a few other sites but he was videoed in New Bedford and there were many callers complaining they couldn't vote.
Good Video of it all at the link:
Did Bill Clinton violate election rules by going into a polling location?
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/2016/03/01/did-bill-clinton-violate-election-rules-venturing-into-polling-location/PH4FIH9jCKYKf6Fzyvfz2N/story.html#comments
book_worm
(15,951 posts)Always excuses.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)(HRC: 63-SBS:35...31% African American)
It would suggest that Sanders has as much difficulty with northern African American voters as with southern African American voters. I don't think it accounts for all the differences, though.
auntpurl
(4,311 posts)Does Boston generally vote for the more liberal candidate than the rest of the state? In that case, this would be a surprise.
Blue_Adept
(6,399 posts)Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)So far, Clinton has shown she is popular across a broad spectrum of the Democratic Party.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)That's the big question here.
Is PA vulnerable if Sanders can't draw big in Philadelphia?
The Massachusetts vote distribution is a very troubling sign for a Sanders general election campaign: he can't win major population centers, even liberal ones. Why isn't he connecting?
As a side note, he also lost Northern Virginia badly: he will need that area to win Virginia in the fall. He's proven particularly incapable of attracting voters from major population centers. That's a real problem.
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)I think that his lack of appeal to large swathes of the diverse Democratic Base is what will defeat him in the Primary. We will need to wait until we have a solid nominee to look in these places and determine viability in the General Election.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)If you look at the map, she carried the most diverse areas of the state by huge margins and in a close race, that helps a lot.
jillan
(39,451 posts)Question.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)mcar
(42,302 posts)I love to go back and visit family there. Kudos to them for helping HRC.