Looking forward to March 15:

[George II]

Clinton's Project538 forecast chances of winning:

March 5, 6

Nebraska - no forecast 26 delegates
Kansas - no forecast 33 delegates
Maine - no forecast 25 delegates
Mississippi - no forecast 36 delegates

March 8

Michigan - 98% 133 delegates

March 15

Florida - 99% 207 delegates
Ohio - 94% 148 delegates
Illinois - 99% 160 delegates
Missouri - no forecast 75 delegates
North Carolina - 94% 107 delegates

[DCBob]

1. Looks good for Hillary

March 5,6 -- probably a wash with neither candidate dominating.

March 8 -- Michigan should be good for Hillary.

March 15 -- Huge for Hillary.

Probably another 100 delegate gain total.

[ismnotwasm]

2. Sweet

[livetohike]

3. Looking good! More evidence she will wrap this up soon.

[HappyinLA]

4. That's a total of 950 delegates on the line.

If her current polls hold, she should pick up around 468 delegates just from MI,IL,FL,NC,OH.

That alone would give her around 1521 total delegates. She'd need 861 more to take the nom.

861 out of the remaining 2442 available. That's 35%. She could lose every remaining state 65/35 and still win.

But wait, there's more! So she picks up 468 from those 5 states. What about LA,NE,KS,ME,MS,MO? Let's say she loses them all big. 70/30 big. She'll still pull in around 72 delegates. (Those 6 states are worth 241 total delegates).

So now she'd be sitting at 1593, and only need 789 more to get the nom. Now she just needs 32% of the remaining delegates. BS would have to beat her in every remaining state by no less than 68/32.

BS is done. The math just isn't there.

[MaggieD]

5. That's right - math

But I think he is more interested in tearing down the Democratic Party than winning. So he will stay in to do that.

[George II]

7. He's been denigrating the Democratic Party for almost 40 years, he hasn't changed.

[MaggieD]

11. Yes, but now he has a national stage to do it

And that is his real goal, it appears. Not to win, but simply to tear down the party he has been dissing for decades.

[bushisanidiot]

14. It's possible that's true, but I give Bernie credit for actually running as a Democrat and not

as a third party candidate. He has said repeatedly that the main thing is to not allow another republican in the white house. He will bow out gracefully (I believe) before the end of March and he will give a great speech that asks his supporters to help Hillary win November. He has said before that on her worst day, Hillary is better than any of the republican candidates on their best day.

I just hope the Bernie bots don't try to start some asinine write in campaign to effectively elect Trump as POTUS.

[MaggieD]

17. I don't give him credit for that

He didn't have the guts to do an independent run. He opportunistically used the party he hates as a platform to tear it down.

As a loyal Dem I loathe Bernie for that reason alone.

[George II]

6. Good points - that's the beauty of proportional primaries. My calculation a few days ago....

....was that after last night (it went just about as forecast) Sanders would have to win each of the remaining states by about 62-38% in order to get the nomination.

That 62% will go up even more in the remaining states after March 15.

[NurseJackie]

9. Numbers. Math. Reality. (All these things show us that Bernie will NOT be the nominee.)

[Codeine]

15. But when you point out the math

they just keep saying "there's plenty of delegates out there" and "California!" without any evident understanding of the kind of margins he's going to have to win by.

The devil is in the differential now. They aren't getting that.

[JaneyVee]

8. Heres some forecasts:

[auntpurl]

10. Thank you for the post

God, I love data. I find these threads so much more satisfying than the rant-y ones.

[MaggieD]

13. Me too

I am so over the overwrought drama I don't even read them any longer. Deaf ears.

[bushisanidiot]

18. Same here! To quote our Madam (Future) President, "We need more love and kindness in America."

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. My projections

Sanders will win

Nebraska, 52-48
Kansas, 54-46
Maine, 68-32

Clinton will win

Mississippi, 76-32
Michigan, 55-45
Florida, 58-42
Illinois, 54-46 (This will be the closer-than-expected result)
Ohio, in a squeaker, 51-49
North Carolina, 62-37

Total toss up:
Missouri, no idea. Clinton will win the cities, following the usual Dem pattern. Will it be enough? Not clear. My guess is 50-50 with Sanders perhaps pulling it out.

[HappyinLA]

19. And BS margins on his wins do nothing for him.

NE, 52/48 gets him a 13/12 delegate split.
KS, 54/46 would be a 18/15 split.
ME, 68/32 would be a 17/8 split.

A whole +13 for BS.

MS alone, at 76/32 is a 27/9 split, +18 to HRC. One state for her eats up his three wins.

His team has to realize this isn't how you win right? He's playing small ball when he needs to be swinging for the fences. All HRC has to do now is bat for average.

[alcibiades_mystery]

21. That's correct

I think they're hoping if they can rack up some unexpected wins before the end of March, then they will shift perceptions enough to make actual delegate gains in April, May, and especially June.

California is their Holy Grail, of course.

It's a fantasy.

[HappyinLA]

22. I'm starting to think

they don't get the whole "proportional" delegate thing. That they think the states are winner take all, or worse that the winner is who "wins" the most states instead of delegates.

[alcibiades_mystery]

23. They recognize that point when it's to their advantage, ignore it otherwise

Colorado was a "major victory," the 2-1 walloping in Texas was "expected," and Massachusetts was "a draw."

The engine hits the wall eventually, but we're all going to have to go on this ride with them.

Such is life.

[George II]

20. Pretty realistic - as it has been, he wins the smaller states with low minority representation, and.

...Clinton wins the larger states that are more representative of a cross-section of the country.

[Alfresco]

24. We will learn more about what kind of man Bernie is after March 15.