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wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:01 AM Mar 2016

NY Times: Sanders Campaign Will Travel On, but Path to Victory Is All but Blocked

Bernie Sanders has vowed to fight for the presidential nomination until the Democratic convention, but the results this evening suggest that he is not anywhere close to being on track to amass a majority of pledged delegates.

Hillary Clinton’s landslide margins in the South and her competitiveness elsewhere translate to an overall lead of around 15 to 20 percentage points nationwide. Her support is anchored by a huge advantage among black voters, who represent nearly a quarter of Democratic voters and have offered her more than 80 percent of their votes — a tally rivaling or even exceeding the share won by Barack Obama in 2008.

Mr. Sanders, despite pockets of strength, has not fared well enough to overcome such a huge deficit among black voters.

Not even a few feel-good wins in states like Colorado, Minnesota and Oklahoma will change that. Mr. Sanders would have needed big wins in these states — by much more than 20 percentage points — to entertain the possibility of overcoming his enormous deficit in the South, where the majority of Democrats are African-American.

Mrs. Clinton is on track to win nearly 80 percent of the vote in Alabama, more than 70 percent in Georgia, and more than 60 percent in Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas and Texas. Mr. Sanders cannot make up for routs in the South with slight wins in the North. He needs landslides to counter landslides; he doesn’t have them.

There are three times as many nonblack voters as black voters in the Democratic primary electorate. To cancel her strength, Mr. Sanders would need to win nonblack voters by about 20 percentage points, since Mrs. Clinton leads by more than 60 points among black voters.

Through the contests so far, Mr. Sanders has not posted dominating totals outside of his home state of Vermont and a few adjacent counties in western New Hampshire.

Elsewhere, Mr. Sanders fell far short of the targets needed. He lost Hispanic voters in Texas by 20 percentage points. He lost white voters in Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee. He came very close but lost mostly white Iowa.

But perhaps most striking is that Mr. Sanders failed to win in Massachusetts — a notably liberal state next to Vermont with a relatively small black share of the vote. Massachusetts residents had the chance to see many of the ads aired by the Sanders campaign for New Hampshire, which is covered by the Boston media market. If Mr. Sanders can’t win big in a place like Massachusetts, it is hard to come up with many places where he can.

Mr. Sanders also hoped to fare well in Appalachia, where there’s a large number of working-class Democrats and few black voters. But the results in western Virginia, Tennessee, northern Georgia and Alabama all suggest that Mr. Sanders trails there as well. Perhaps he could still win in Kentucky or West Virginia, but it’s hard to imagine him winning in a landslide if he trails in the bordering regions of northern Tennessee and western Virginia.

Mrs. Clinton decisively won the handful of coal country counties in western Virginia that act as a leading indicator of the results in West Virginia and eastern Kentucky.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/02/upshot/sanders-campaign-will-travel-on-but-path-to-victory-is-all-but-blocked.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region&region=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region&_r=0

43 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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NY Times: Sanders Campaign Will Travel On, but Path to Victory Is All but Blocked (Original Post) wyldwolf Mar 2016 OP
wyldwolf, why are the Young Turks saying the race is a toss up? /nt DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #1
Cheerleading? An inability to accept REALITY? NurseJackie Mar 2016 #5
DemocratSinceBirth, the same reason HuffPo boldly stated Bernie won Super Tuesday wyldwolf Mar 2016 #8
wyldwolf, the problem with ignoring reality is eventually you have to confront it DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #11
DemocratSinceBirth, I'm not so sure that's true for everyone wyldwolf Mar 2016 #15
There was a time in Japan when cancer was such a verboten topic doctors wouldn't tell patients ... DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #22
BREAKING NEWS: Bernie actually won Super Tuesday! wyldwolf Mar 2016 #29
They are bad at math. NT Adrahil Mar 2016 #37
This is what REALITY is all about. NurseJackie Mar 2016 #2
Hillary has only got two more conservative southern states.... HooptieWagon Mar 2016 #3
Math DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #6
Ya but those are all Southern states and don't count.... Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #10
How long do you think it will take before they run out of states they tell us to ignore?/nt DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #13
Not sure....they want us to ignore states like Georgia and Texas because they are red states... Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #16
Maybe they are color blind and can't distinguish between blue and red ? DemocratSinceBirth Mar 2016 #18
LOL ... Well played! eom 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2016 #35
Thanks for this. VERY much appreciated. riversedge Mar 2016 #27
It was just reported on Arizona Public Media ... 1StrongBlackMan Mar 2016 #34
This message was self-deleted by its author Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #7
But BernieBroMath says that it is still possible. giftedgirl77 Mar 2016 #4
Why Bro? Young women seem to be voting for him quite a bit. n/t JonLeibowitz Mar 2016 #12
Because when you have no issue on which to base your candidacy you can only FlatBaroque Mar 2016 #23
At least my candidate is not under investigation by FBI angrychair Mar 2016 #14
That candidate killed Vince Foster, too. wyldwolf Mar 2016 #17
You might want to fix that typo. giftedgirl77 Mar 2016 #20
Thanks angrychair Mar 2016 #31
Good one!!! MissDeeds Mar 2016 #40
34 states to go tk2kewl Mar 2016 #21
Jury results. PeaceNikki Mar 2016 #39
Hey there... ScreamingMeemie Mar 2016 #41
Hey, you!! PeaceNikki Mar 2016 #42
Poor little souls. giftedgirl77 Mar 2016 #43
Few more landslides for bernie in the Northeast Csainvestor Mar 2016 #9
If you read it in The New York Times FlatBaroque Mar 2016 #19
"He needs landslides to counter landslides; he doesn’t have them. "... SidDithers Mar 2016 #24
Landslides coming in the north east Csainvestor Mar 2016 #30
OK, gimme a prediction on New York... SidDithers Mar 2016 #33
Cha Ching Iliyah Mar 2016 #25
I think his donors are getting dubbed. riversedge Mar 2016 #26
nytimes: Key takeaways from Super Tuesday --The Sanders "Revolution" is NOT expanding riversedge Mar 2016 #28
Key comment: "Mr. Sanders cannot make up for routs in the South with slight wins in the North." DCBob Mar 2016 #32
Annnnnnnd....no one cares Red Knight Mar 2016 #36
math BainsBane Mar 2016 #38

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
5. Cheerleading? An inability to accept REALITY?
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:07 AM
Mar 2016

Who knows? (I guess it doesn't really matter ... it's just background noise to me.)


Go, Hillary! We love you!

wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
8. DemocratSinceBirth, the same reason HuffPo boldly stated Bernie won Super Tuesday
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:11 AM
Mar 2016

Their audience pays them to tell them what they want hear. Similar to how FOX News feeds their audience info that makes the rest of us scratch our heads.

wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
15. DemocratSinceBirth, I'm not so sure that's true for everyone
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:19 AM
Mar 2016

After each Hillary win, they convince themselves the victories were actually losses.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
22. There was a time in Japan when cancer was such a verboten topic doctors wouldn't tell patients ...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:24 AM
Mar 2016

There was a time in Japan when cancer was such a verboten topic doctors wouldn't tell patients they had it. There is a lesson in there.

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
2. This is what REALITY is all about.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:05 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie's mathematical path to the nomination hangs by a thread. But, realistically speaking, he hasn't got a chance.

If Mr. Sanders can’t win big in a place like Massachusetts, it is hard to come up with many places where he can.

Indeed.

 

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)
3. Hillary has only got two more conservative southern states....
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:05 AM
Mar 2016

...to pad her lead. There's 33 others where Sanders does well. Clinton can't score a solid victory except in southern states that will vote red in November anyway.

DemocratSinceBirth

(99,710 posts)
6. Math
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:09 AM
Mar 2016
 

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)
16. Not sure....they want us to ignore states like Georgia and Texas because they are red states...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:20 AM
Mar 2016

....but then they don't want us to ignore Oklahoma.

It's all very confusing at this point.

Response to HooptieWagon (Reply #3)

FlatBaroque

(3,160 posts)
23. Because when you have no issue on which to base your candidacy you can only
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:25 AM
Mar 2016

lie and try to tear down your opponent no mater how decent. The BernieBro is a creation of the syphilitic minds that run the Clintoon campaign.

wyldwolf

(43,867 posts)
17. That candidate killed Vince Foster, too.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:21 AM
Mar 2016


I see you're in favor spending tax payer money on such nonsense.
 

tk2kewl

(18,133 posts)
21. 34 states to go
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:22 AM
Mar 2016

ain't real hard to count to 50

i got together with 2 other dudes and 2 of us took off our shoes and socks

PeaceNikki

(27,985 posts)
39. Jury results.
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 07:19 PM
Mar 2016

AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
On Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:13 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

But BernieBroMath says that it is still possible.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1393159

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Broad-brush, divisive attack. This is the kind of thing that is going to make it very difficult to bring the sides here together for the general election.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Mar 2, 2016, 05:17 PM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Newp
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Weak sauce in the relative cosmology of DU.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Discuss, don't alert.
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Poster should stop rolling on the floor laughing long enough to realize the primaries aren't over, and millions of people still haven't voted. BTW, knock off the BernieBro crap. What an ass.
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Seen a lot worse on GDP than this.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: But not against the TOS. Is it nice? No, but this thread is full of attacks on each side against the candidate of the other side. Do what I do. Use your Ignore list to its fullest.
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given

Csainvestor

(388 posts)
9. Few more landslides for bernie in the Northeast
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:11 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie will also win by and California. Washington and Oregon are Bernie country as well.

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
24. "He needs landslides to counter landslides; he doesn’t have them. "...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:26 AM
Mar 2016

Stick a fork in him. He's done.

Sid

SidDithers

(44,228 posts)
33. OK, gimme a prediction on New York...
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:53 AM
Mar 2016

Bernie wins by 10 points? 15?

What's your prediction for New York?

Sid

riversedge

(70,200 posts)
28. nytimes: Key takeaways from Super Tuesday --The Sanders "Revolution" is NOT expanding
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:34 AM
Mar 2016


Donna Brazile Retweeted
The New York Times ‏@nytimes 3h3 hours ago

Key takeaways from Super Tuesday http://nyti.ms/1oYg9qJ

DCBob

(24,689 posts)
32. Key comment: "Mr. Sanders cannot make up for routs in the South with slight wins in the North."
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 11:46 AM
Mar 2016

"He needs landslides to counter landslides; he doesn’t have them."

Red Knight

(704 posts)
36. Annnnnnnd....no one cares
Wed Mar 2, 2016, 12:17 PM
Mar 2016

I know I don't.

It's not changing one bit how I'm voting in the Pennsylvania primary.

Even if it's over by then, I'll still vote for him.

What the Clinton supporters fail to realize is that Bernie means more than just a primary or an election. They can't ever get that, I know.

But all the polls and all the NYT cheerleading for Clinton mean nothing to Bernie's hardcore supporters. So keep posting and feel good about that.

It isn't going to discourage me.

I just don't care.



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