The math just ain't there for Bernie

[RealAmericanDem]

Crunch the numbers. To get the delegates needed to win the dem nomination Bernie must win ALL the remaining states by at least a 60/40 split. If he just ties Hillary she still wins.

Bottom line is that just as the Evangelical voters are the repubs base the black voters are the dems base and NO ONE can win the dem nomination without winning the black vote.

If Bernie really cared about making sure a dem inhabits the white house next year he needs to back off and start campaigning for Hillary.

ANYONE who does not realize the implications with the Supreme Court if a repub take the presidency is in for a real rude awakening that will have terrible ramifications for a generation.

Them are the facts; like them or don't.

[bkkyosemite]

1. He is NOT backing off he is going to the convention. Our voices will be heard loud and clear.

[Milliesmom]

45. Go and take the pledge if you mean that

https://citizensagainstplutocracy.wordpress.com/2015/07/22/bernie-or-bust-pledge-is-the-miracle-senator-sanders-needs-to-secure-party-nomination/

[seaotter]

2. This:

ANYONE who does not realize the implications with the Supreme Court if a repub take the presidency is in for a real rude awakening that will have terrible ramifications for a generation.


I agree with this part of your post. Given that, Hillary should bow out now, as she has less chance of beating the republicans than does Bernie.

That, combined with the FBI investigation hanging over her anointed head, clearly indicates it is time for her to withdraw, for the good of the nation.

Now, THEM IS THE FACTS.

[RealAmericanDem]

6. yea that makes sense; the candidate who has won the most states should leave.

Have you even done the numbers? So many people living a delusion that they will magically change. Either that or Bernie is just following the repub's lead and constantly praying Hillary will be indicted so they have a chance.

[seaotter]

10. She can not win the GE her negatives are too high. THEM IS THE FACTS.

People just do not like or trust her. You can argue as to why, but those are the facts.
Hillary is a fatally flawed GE candidate.


Sorry for your hurt feelings, but people just do not like her.

[scheming daemons]

12. She's fatally flawed... except against Trump

A ham sandwich with a (D) next to it would beat Trump in the GE.

[seaotter]

13. That is wishful thinking.

Remember, you can also indict a "ham sandwich".

[scheming daemons]

18. Yes you can.

But she won't be.

[seaotter]

53. Hang on to that.

I am far less convinced.

[truedelphi]

34. No it is not wishful thinking.

Those of us who analyze the situation from the democratic notion that the two Big Dino Parties should not be selecting the candidates for the rest of us understand one pertinent fact: we know full well that Bernie would be able to win the general election due to the fact that he has so much support from that segment of the population that is alienated from the Two Major Parties. (What has often been referred to as the One Big Money Party.)

I often hear statistics from the Hillary Clinton group here on DU to the effect that HRC is supported by 68% or 72% of the Democratic Party voters.

But since that party now only represents some 34% of all Americans (if you do the math) then you can see why we are sticking by Bernie Sanders.

68% of 34% = 23% of the electorate.

Is this Democracy - to cram a candidate down our throats with only 23% of the entire population liking her?!?

[seaotter]

56. I am a Bernie supporter.

I think you misinterpreted my post.

[closeupready]

15. Nope. If he runs against her, he wins.

[scheming daemons]

20. The data suggest you're incorrect

[seaotter]

29. To say that she may be able to squeek past Trump in the GE is hardly a good point to make.

Says little for your candidate.

[scheming daemons]

30. +5 to +8 over Trump in the latest polls.... hardly "squeaking" past

[seaotter]

52. Speak squeak

[auntpurl]

14. "People just do not like or trust her".

Then why are they voting for her in droves?

[closeupready]

16. If by droves you mean lower numbers from past elections, then

these droves are the hardcore 25% who would do ANYTHING for her.

[auntpurl]

24. But, I mean, why would they do that?

If they don't like and trust her?

Also, Bernie doesn't seem to be able to get the droves, even the depressed in number droves that you mention. (Vermont and NH being the exceptions.)

Also, most of the states where Hillary won, everyone knew she was going to win. That disincentivises people to vote. The 2008 primary was extremely competitive in a lot of states, so the numbers aren't really comparable.

Also, anyone who was disincentivised to vote in the primaries will have a stick of dynamite shoved up their butts with Trump in the picture in the GE.

And my final also, if only 25% of Dems are voting for Hillary, how is she winning by so much?

[seaotter]

27. See my post below.

Do you understand the concept of percentages?? Seems, NO.

And, on edit, Most of the states that Hillary has won thus far are states that will not even be in play for her , or any Democrat in the GE.

[truedelphi]

35. HRC's strength is that Americans do not yet know how to wrench

our nation away from the entire notion of Primaries.

Primaries are outmoded, because they are what the Elite use to control us.


Here is where I am coming from:
I often hear the following: that HRC has the support of 68% of all Democratic voters.

But since people have fled both parties in droves, with the "indie" crowd numbering around 40% of the electorate these days, that Party only has 34% of all voters.

So 68% of 34% equals 23%, and many of us think it is unfair to have 23% of all the electorate deciding who will be the candidate come November. But of course, it is set up that way because right now the One Percent is in total control of our supposedly democratic elections.

[auntpurl]

36. No one is stopping Independents from running for local office, getting involved

and changing the parties. Changing the primary system even, if there's enough of a groundswell. That's how you make change, from the bottom up. I think one of the reasons Bernie is struggling at the moment (and that may change, I am not one of those who think this whole thing is wrapped up) - it's a bit of a top-down approach to start by trying to get a person who is a very recent Democrat elected to the highest office in the land and hope the change works its way down the ladder.

[truedelphi]

44. So you' re saying that no one is stopping Independents from running for office -

ANd technically I agree with you. There is no law on the books that states that an indie person cannot become a candidate.

But how would that work?

I mean, take this following simple test -- Name for me the Green Party candidate whose name will be on the ballot for President in November. (Without going over to google.)

I just named her, by really thinking hard, as I know it is the same woman who ran in 2008. But I almost couldn't remember.

If the Main$tream media fails to mention Bernie, and only now after months of them avoiding his name, what good would running as an indie do? For either his sake of becoming President or ours?

What he has done is this - he made all of us realzie that there is a huge backlash against the vested interests.

[auntpurl]

46. Again, starting with the presidency is not what I'm suggesting.

Start with, like, comptroller? I don't really know what a comptroller does, to be honest. But I know they're on the ballots in local elections.

Also, Independents don't have to run as Independents. Pick the party that's closest to your beliefs and join that one. You don't have to vote for them if you don't want to. You don't have to support other candidates from that party if you don't want to.

I did not Google, and I think she's called Jill Stein. But to be fair, I only know that from DU. I've never heard of her in the MSM. So your point stands there. But again, start local.

[truedelphi]

48. If Bernie had run to be the Comptroller, none of us would realize how much support exists to wrench

Entire election system away from the Two Big Parties.

And as some posting OP's here are revealing, he probably won in Massachusetts and in Wisconsin.

And really - HRC got six coin tosses in a row in Nevada. Are you friggin' kidding me?
[h2][font color=red]
CORRUPTION - thy name is Big Party Leadership!

[/h2][/font color=red]

[auntpurl]

58. Well, statistically it's not impossible.

Not even that unlikely. A data set of six is very small. Each time the coin is flipped, there's a 50-50 chance. You need larger data sets to start to see it even out.

Anyway, the idea of changing the whole system is not that appealing to me. I'm quite moderate. Of course, I am only an anecdotal example of one, but I suspect there's more of me out there.

[seaotter]

23. They will not be nearly enough in the GE.

Only about 17% of eligible voters vote in primaries.

You "droves" are only a percent of a tiny minority.

If Hillary really cared, she would see the writing on the wall: She can NOT win in the GE. Bernie can.

Nice try, but no soap.

[auntpurl]

25. See my post above.

[artislife]

7. The congress is waiting for a new president before it will have hearings

What makes you think they will come around if it is h instead of Obama?

[seaotter]

11. You're barking up the wrong tree.

I think Hillary can not win the GE.

[artislife]

4. Doesn't matter. We are exposing the machine

Maybe we won't win the nomination, but maybe that is not all there is to win.


All the way to the Convention!

[RealAmericanDem]

17. So "exposing the machine" is worth having a 9 - 2 conservative Supreme Court?

Do you have any idea what the ramifications will be? So much for Roe v Wade and gay marriage; that's just the tip of the iceberg.

[artislife]

22. Do you really think SHE can stop it?

I don't.

[truedelphi]

59. The US Supreme Court is quite conservative.

And on some issues, the Republican Justices have sometimes been more liberal than the Democrats.

When it came to "eminent domain" issues that were being used to grab a senior citizen's lower middle incomed home away from her so that a Country Club could go in, the R's on the court voted for the woman, while the Democrats voted against.

Same with the issue of medicinal marijuana. (Though that may finally be changing.)

Anyway if you really want a US Supreme Court that is not favoring Monsanto and Big Gm food and seed issues over Americans right to eat healthy, non-organ destroying foods, if you want to preserve your home from Country Clubs, if you want to end the stranglehold that the damn Big Banks and Big Military have on this nation, getting a HRC in won't help. (And she has always been against medicinal
marijuana. It was her husband who signed the papers ending the employment and seizing the Social Security Assets of major med marijuana activist Lynnette Shaw)

To have a SCOTUS that stands by and for and with the middle class, it has to be a progressive in the Oval Office.

[angrychair]

5. Yes, math

Please refer to this excellent OP and post on in for further information
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511395124

[immoderate]

8. Predictions of the future are something different than facts.

If you say that a 60/40 split is necessary for a Sanders victory, it implies that Clinton amassed a 60/40 advantage at some point. Seems possible to me.

Don't blow the fantasy that I may have someone I can vote for.

--imm

[bvf]

9. Keep whistling. It's entertaining. n/t

[Bettie]

19. And yet,

the conversation about what we want our country to be continues as long as he stays in the race.

The second he leaves, Clinton will drift back to the right and her comfort zone in the world of bankers, hedge fund managers, and the super wealthy. Back to the land of war for profit.

So, as long as he stays in, even if he doesn't win, at least there is a chance that the message gets through.

Should she be elected, I have zero confidence that she would actually follow through on anything that helps those among the 99%. Her money comes from the very wealthy, she's not going to turn her back on her friends.

But at very least, there will have been someone who asked what we want. Someone who offered something other than "Nope. Can't have that".

And, if he should pull this out and win (stranger things have happened), then we will know that someone was willing to fight for us, the human people rather than the corporate persons.

If you have more faith in Clinton, so much the better. I have none, though I will hold my nose and vote for her if she is the nominee, but that is not a done deal yet.

[Yuugal]

21. 55/45 according to this:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/02/us/super-tuesday-results-delegates.html

Scroll down and use the sliders. At 55% for Bernie he can get a majority. If he averages 54% in the remaining states he will still be ahead of Hillary.

[hack89]

28. There is no reason to believe that will happen

Hillary has a couple more potential blowout wins ahead of her. Bernie does not.

[Yuugal]

31. They said Bernie would only win VT, also.

[hack89]

33. And those victories were not blow outs.

that's the issue. Margin of victor is everything to Bernie now and it is hard to imagine him somehow getting big wins in states with large numbers of delegates - they are too diverse for him to do well.

[NurseJackie]

47. He needs BIG victories ... and often ... that's just not going to happen.

Bernie will not be the nominee.

[SidDithers]

49. But he's going to lose Michigan, Florida and Louisiana...

that slider doesn't really work, when those states are factored in. He needs to be much higher than 55/45.

Sid

[revbones]

26. Interesting how the percentage keeps growing every time someone posts

It was 53% earlier.

[taught_me_patience]

32. It depends if you count super delegates or only pledged delegates

One should only count the pledged. It's about 54% only counting them. The 54% is completely insurmountable.

[MillennialDem]

43. How is it insurmountable? This isn't a general election where each side is

practically guaranteed to get AT LEAST 40% (and almost certainly at least 45% of the vote) of the vote.

Primaries can turn into routs if one or the other has a major gaffe or meltdown or scandal. Not saying it will happen here, but it's possible.

[Hoyt]

37. The honorable thing would be to step aside. Instead, Clinton has to waste valuable time, energy,

and money against Sanders when she needs to be concentrating on the GOPers. Plus, Sanders was slinging mud today. I doubt he or his supporters care.

[truedelphi]

54. You're talking about Bernie Sanders not having honor???

Bwhahahahahah!

[liberal_at_heart]

38. These memes are getting boring. I'm just going to trash the thread.

[Dragonfli]

39. Does your math include the super-delegates by any chance?

If so, you are mistaken, they always switch to match the peoples vote during the convention and if they fail to do so, then rest assured, the party will not recover from the theft and she will lose the GE more certainly than she likely already wil anyway.

[MillennialDem]

40. One side can start running away with this. A contested bloody primary would probably

lead to Hillary winning, but if either picks up steam it won't matter because we will start seeing 75/25 or bigger drubbings making your point irrelevant.

Black voters are the dem base? WTF? They're part of the democratic base but only about 25%!

[restorefreedom]

41. why you guys working this so hard?

maybe trying to convince yourselves?

[basselope]

42. The math just ain't there for CLinton

Crunch the numbers. To get the electoral votes needed to win the presidency Clinton must win major swing states she has no chance of competing in.

Bottom line is that just as the Evangelical voters are the repubs base the young voters are the dems base and NO democrat can win the presidency without getting the young voters to turn out.

If Hillary really cared about making sure a dem inhabits the white house next year she needs to back off and start campaigning for Bernie.

ANYONE who does not realize the implications with the Supreme Court if a repub take the presidency is in for a real rude awakening that will have terrible ramifications for a generation.

Them are the facts; like them or don't.

[RealAmericanDem]

50. Young voters are not the base because so many never show up to vote. Not even for Bernie.

The ABT (anyone but Trump) turnout will be big enough to give Hillary the presidency.


Bottom line is that our nominee is picked by having a minimum number of delegates and Bernie has no path left to get them.

[basselope]

62. Incorrect. YOUNG PEOPLE got Obama elected.

In BOTH 2008 and 2012


http://www.pewresearch.org/2008/11/13/young-voters-in-the-2008-election/


http://www.usnews.com/news/campaign-2008/articles/2008/11/06/young-voters-powered-obamas-victory-while-shrugging-off-slacker-image

And yes, Bernie has a path to getting the delegates.

And I got news for you.. there is no such thing as the ABT movement. There is an ABH movement, but that other one just doesn't exist.

[JaneyVee]

51. I love you.

[RealAmericanDem]

55. Well, I'm newly single. Send a picture. ;-)

[JaneyVee]

57. Ha! Maybe a selfie.

[RealAmericanDem]

60. Just picture a little older Brad Pitt and you will know what I look like. ;-)

[Mike Nelson]

61. Hillary will get...

...the delegates she needs to win before the convention. Bernie already has enough delegates to "go to the convention" - you only need one.

[RealAmericanDem]

63. yep

[GeorgeGist]

64. Don't quit your day job ...

because your number crunching skills are weak.