New Mississippi poll: Hillary: 65% BS: 11% +54!!

[DCBob]

That's not a typo.. Bernie is pulling 11%. Mammoth blowout in the making. Hillary would get all the delegates if Bernie doesnt clear 15%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Magellan_MS_GOP_2016.pdf

[KingFlorez]

1. Doesn't count

It's the confederacy, blacks are ungrateful to Sanders, blah blah blah

[DCBob]

2. No doubt.

They are also not educated and suffer from Stockholm Syndrome.

[bravenak]

3. +1

[Dem2]

31. I have to admit

my first thought bubble was exactly that.

Yes, I guess I'm catching the cynicism bug that pervades DU during the primaries.

[MaggieD]

75. Or so we are told

Jane floated the "red states don't matter" garbage on Chris Hayes the other night. Worst interview I have EVER seen from a presidential candidate or spouse. Every time someone from his campaign talks more AA voters move to Clinton.

[Red Oak]

4. Do you think she would win MS in the GE?

McCain won it in 2008

Romney won it in 2012

[DCBob]

6. Why do you people keep repeating this clueless comment?

This is a Dem primary to determine the Dem nominee. It doesnt matter what happens in the general.

[Red Oak]

10. Really?

[DCBob]

13. Yes really.

Mississippi has been Red for decades. We dont need MS to win.

[artislife]

36. It isn't clueless

But I don't expect you to understand that.

[onenote]

38. it really is clueless.

There is no correlation between winning a primary and winning the General.

Do you think Bernie is going to win Oklahoma? Of course not. Whether Bernie is nominee or Clinton, the Democrats will lose Oklahoma. And Georgia. And so on.

And whether Bernie or Clinton is the nominee, the Democrats will win California. (Obama lost the California primary by 7 points in 2008 and then won the general in California by 14).

I can't for the life of me figure out why folks can't get this basic fact of life through their heads.

[Number23]

41. And the really stupid thing about that comment is, if you don't win the primary the GE doesn't

matter anyway 'cause you won't be in it!!

I don't understand the folks that keep racing around DU making that bizarre comment. I see it at least 4 times a day here now. It is just mortifying that so many here don't seem to understand even basic stuff about elections.

[Kentonio]

42. The very obvious point you seem to be missing..

Is that if the nominee wins all the supposed red states and loses most of the supposed blue ones then that suggests they will struggle more to turn out the voters in the blue states in the general, which raises the risk that we'll end up losing the swing blue states and thus the election.

[onenote]

43. Clinton won Virginia. So how does that fit with your theory?

She won the Democratic primary with more votes than Trump had winning the repub primary. If Trump gets the nomination, a lot of those Virginia repubs are going to be staying at home on election day. And if Trump is somehow denied the nomination, a lot of his supporters are going to be sleeping in.

If Clinton supporters and Sanders supporters join together to support whomever gets the Democratic nomination, we win. If we don't join together, we piss away the opportunity.

[Kentonio]

60. It's all about that 'if' isn't it.

[brooklynite]

63. Michigan - Illinois - Ohio

Get back to us in two weeks

[Garrett78]

62. First of all, she won't lose most of the blue and purple ones.

Such as MI, OH, PA, FL, IL, MD, NC and so on. Clinton is going to end up winning the vast majority of delegates without even including superdelegates.

Secondly, it's a fallacy to suggest losing to a fellow Democrat in a primary means she would lose that state to a Republican in the general.

[Number23]

68. It's funny how you always try to sound so measured and reasonable

Even when saying the most things

[Surya Gayatri]

52. Most of these bright lights probably didn't even do a civics class in high school, let alone

a university-level Political Science course. Their lacunae are on embarrassing display.

[Number23]

70. I know. And it's so precious to watch them either flailing and screaming or trying to sound

so professorial when what they're saying makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

In fact, if they were flailing and spouting this nonsense at least they could later on attempt to say they were saying these ridiculous things "out of the heat of the moment."

[Garrett78]

40. Clueless may not be the right word. Meaningless is more appropriate.

Of course the Democratic Party nominee isn't going to win Mississippi in the general election. Or Georgia. Or Alabama. And so on. But why does that matter? It's not as though there aren't many solidly blue states where Clinton will beat Sanders, and it's not as though the Democrats in those southern states are drastically different (on the whole) from the Democrats in non-southern states (it's just that there are fewer Democrats in those southern states than there are in some of the non-southern states).

Even if one wishes to argue that Clinton can't win the general election (in spite of her being a heavy favorite according to the oddsmakers), it makes no difference in terms of her nomination prospects. Her margin of victory in southern states is devastating to Sanders in terms of winning the nomination. Since Democrats don't have winner-take-all primaries/caucuses, Sanders has to somehow win by equally large margins in numerous states in order to have a chance. Outside of Vermont, which only has 26 delegates as I recall, Sanders isn't winning by margins comparable to Clinton's in those southern states.

So, I really don't understand the point folks are trying to make when they point out the obvious regarding how solidly red states like Mississippi are.

[KingFlorez]

7. Do you think Sanders would win Oklahoma in the general?

Well?

[Red Oak]

11. No, I don't

The electoral college matterss

[yardwork]

44. Do you understand how primaries work?

Half of DU doesn't seem to understand the primary system.

[hack89]

58. Would Bernie win MS in the GE? nt

[MineralMan]

64. So? There are Democrats in MS.

They get to vote in the Democratic primaries. Every state holds those primary events.

Perhaps you're not completely clear on how the nominating process for President works?

[Red Oak]

71. Thought you had left GD Primaries?

Welcome back, again.

[MineralMan]

72. I took a break, but simply had to step back in.

I know that disappoints some people, but I always reserve the right to change my mind. So, here I am, back in GD .

[Red Oak]

73. Actually, I'm truly glad you are back

We may not always agree, but I always enjoy reading what you write.

Informed, well written.

Welcome back.

[MineralMan]

74. Thanks.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. Mississippi, that stronghold of liberal ideals....

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. Her delegate margin there is going to zero out Sanders weekend delegate gains

You can make jokes, but the Democratic Party allots delegates to every state, and other entities besides. Mississippi gets some, too. If you lose it 70-30, you will end up with a significant net delegate gain for your opponent. In this case, I think Sanders will net +16 delegates over the weekend (winning Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine big; losing Louisiana moderately); Clinton will net +16 from Mississippi.

[Darwin Diplomacy]

8. Will Mississippi vote Dem this fall?

Answer: No.

[DCBob]

9. So we don't count these votes??

Which states are legit? Please list them so we all know.

[Darwin Diplomacy]

14. I'll leave that for you to figure out.

Not divulging the Sanders strategy at this time.

[DCBob]

17. LOL.. good one!

[alcibiades_mystery]

18. ROFL

[GP6971]

19. As if you know what it is.

Are you a comedian?

[msongs]

28. its the rubio strategy. finish not first as many times a possible then blame the voters lol nt

[onenote]

39. Apparently Virginia, an essential purple state, isn't part of that strategy.

Of course I don't believe that for a minute. i also don't believe that just because Bernie lost Virginia he couldn't win in in the general. But the logic of some people here seems to suggest exactly that.

[yardwork]

45. Massachusetts was part of the strategy before it wasn't.

[JaneyVee]

16. Please explain to me what your point even is.

Should we not hold a primary there anymore?

[Garrett78]

20. That matters why?

Are you implying that Clinton won't win any blue or swing states?

Are you implying that Democrats in places like SC, LA, MS and other southern states are so incredibly different than Democrats in non-southern states that there's reason to believe Sanders will win IL, MO, MI, OH, PA, NY, NJ, MD, NM, AZ, CA and so on?

[davidn3600]

27. The demographics are different

Hillary is winning huge in places with high minority voters. Bernie is winning in places with a high working/union class and the youth. Seems there is a bit of a split. Half the party is fighting for primarily social justice, the other half fighting for primarily economic justice.

[Garrett78]

30. That doesn't answer the questions I asked.

Many non-southern states that are yet to hold primaries have a high percentage of POC, and they are also Clinton-friendly states. On top of that, those are the states with a relatively high number of delegates. This race is going to turn into a blowout.

I think Clinton's inevitability is based on numerous factors (name recognition, experience running national campaigns, backing of the establishment and big donors, perceptions of electability, perceptions of each candidate's ability to wrangle with the opposition, opportunity to finally have a woman POTUS, and so on). I don't think it's about social justice vs. economic justice, even if that's a narrative some have pushed.

The meme that Clinton can only win solidly red or southern states is ridiculous. And the meme that lower turnout for Democrats than Republicans in solidly red states (duh!) is somehow worrisome is equally ridiculous.

[davidn3600]

33. Turn out is low in every Democrat contest

It's not just the south. The Democratic turnout is down nearly a quarter in every contest.

You can ignore it all you want, but it's a problem. There is an enthusiasm gap. And polls are very clear that Hillary is nearly as hated as Donald Trump. That's a problem. People just simply do not like her.

There was all this talk last year that all these women and all these minorities would flood to the polls and elect Hillary. Well, some of the minorities are turning out (in red states). But so far the women haven't bought in. And the youth are starting to check out and lose interest. This is a problem against a candidate on the other side who is energizing a very enthusiastic and angry base.

[Garrett78]

35. Too many variables.

The Dems have a 2-person race this time around (meaning there are only 2 get-out-the-vote campaign efforts), and the Dems have had far less media coverage than the Reps this time around. And - this is the biggest point I wish to make - a low primary turnout doesn't translate to a low general election turnout. Even the weather and when states held their primaries in '08 vs. when states are holding them this year could be impacting turnout. Not to mention we have a pretty small sample size given how many solidly blue states have yet to hold their primaries.

Put it all together and the turnout numbers simply don't mean much.

[SMC22307]

21. It's kind of adorable that you're clinging to Mississippi...

the state that ranks dead last in so, so many areas. I feel sorry for the poor and working classes there, and hope they'd vote to shake things up a bit. Make that a lot. What the hell have the Clintons done for them?

[DCBob]

22. Clinging??

No.

[alcibiades_mystery]

48. Bitter clinging?

[yardwork]

46. Some of us are counting delegates, which is how we choose our candidate.

What are you doing?

[Freddie Stubbs]

55. Clinging to MS, and Iowa, and Nevada, and SC, and Massachusetts, and Virginia and...

[grossproffit]

23. That's a 20 point jump from the last poll. Lawrence O'Donnell must be sad.

bwahahahaha

[litlbilly]

24. and this means what exactly?

[livetohike]

56. This means she will end Bernie's chances of securing the

nomination sooner than he thinks.

[Lizzie Poppet]

25. Why on earth would this be a surprise?

Does anyone actually think there are enough progressives in Mississippi to make for any better numbers for Bernie?

I have no problem with this. Not all of the Democratic Party is as far left as I am. Hell, most of it is likely less far left (I'm an independent and a socialist, to be clear). I've always thought of the party as center-left. The Democratic voters of Mississippi are going to pick a more-conservative (than Bernie) candidate, as is their right. Bernie has always had to win without the votes of these Democrats in the primary.

"Working as intended."

[jayschool]

29. Yep

Imagine Southerners not voting for a New Englander (read: "Yankee&quot from New York (read: "Yankee&quot who has espoused socialist economics and fought against segration. I'm shocked, shocked, I say.

[Garrett78]

32. But we're not talking about Southern Republicans here.

We're talking about Southern Democrats. Do you really think Dems in, say, Atlanta feel all that differently than Dems in, say, Chicago? Do you really think Clinton can't win (or at the very least split the delegates) in states such as Illinois, Missouri, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, California, Hawaii, and so on?

[NowSam]

26. it's all theater

Some say:

The media is the department of propaganda. The Oligarchs own the government.

The pills lie and then the votes are rigged.

More medication folks. More football and beer.Bread and circuses.

Sone say if you buy this balogna you get what you deserve.

[SheilaT]

34. The deep South currently belongs to the Republicans in the general election.

It's quite lovely that Hillary is polling so very well there in the Democratic primary, but if we're supposed to be thinking ahead to the general election (which is what all the Hillary supporters assured us was absolutely in the bag for her some months back) then even though she'll get delegates to the nominating convention, it doesn't mean squat come November.

[Garrett78]

37. If the Deep South was the only place she could be expected to accumulate delegates...

...you might have a point, but she'll do very well in many of the solidly blue states that have yet to vote. And if the Deep South was the only place where Clinton could win, this would all be a moot point because Sanders would be the nominee-to-be. You can't win the nomination by only winning in one region.

Sanders can't just win some of the states that Clinton won in '08. He would also need to win a bunch of the states that Clinton lost in '08--states that Clinton is likely to continue dominating this time around.

[yardwork]

47. Massachusetts?

[alcibiades_mystery]

49. Cheated! Fraud!

The Sanders campaign will join the long list of political groups that never legitimately lost a single election. Just because the other person got more votes doesn't mean you lost!

[yardwork]

51. It's pathetic.

[SidDithers]

50. Stick a fork in him. He's done...nt

Sid

[DCBob]

53. Bern't toast.

[NCTraveler]

54. Awesome!!! Nt

[livetohike]

57. K&R

[DCBob]

59. Mississippi has a 15% threshold so Hillary would win all 36 delegates..

if Bernie cant break 15.

Looking like a real possibility.

[NurseJackie]

61. WOW!! I did not know that!! :-D Bernie's campaign is IMPLODING! There's ....

... NO WAY he can continue like this for very much longer. It will be OBVIOUS (sooner rather than later) to even the most hardcore Bernie fan that he doesn't stand a chance at winning the nomination.

Those who are pinning their hopes on a "blowout" in California and elsewhere (and that's what he'll literally need... MULTIPLE blowout results) aren't accepting the REALITY of the situation. These "best case" scenarios just aren't going to happen! Period.

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[MineralMan]

66. As I mentioned below, that 15% threshold came into

play in Vermont, where Hillary didn't get that many votes. Bernie got all 16 pledged delegates there. That's how our primary system works. Still, 36 is more than 16, if I remember my grammar school arithmetic. Turnabout is fair play, it seems.

[NurseJackie]

69. Thanks! I appreciate it!

[MineralMan]

65. I believe all states have that 15% threshold.

It usually doesn't come into play in a two-person race, but it's there.

In fact, in Vermont, Clinton did not hit that 15% mark, so Bernie Sanders got all of VT's 16 pledged delegate. Miississippi has 36 available pledged delegates, though, so it's a bit more important than VT, delegate-wise.

Every state counts during the primaries. Every state has Democrats. Mississippi counts over twice as much as Vermont, it seems. "God bless the United States of America," as some people say frequently. I'm an atheist, though, so I don't say that.

[MaggieD]

76. Bernie is due for another drubbing

And then he will be eliminated. Can't come soon enough for me.

[grasswire]

79. And why is Bernie (the most trusted and most honest in polling)

...."due for a drubbing"?

Or is it just an authoritarian's dream?

[MaggieD]

81. I laid it out here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511406891

[grasswire]

77. the most poorly educated state in the country.

And that's a fact. Democrats will never win that state.

[DCBob]

78. Good grief.. this nonsense again.

Any idiot know we wont win MS in a general and has nothing to do with this primary.

[Alfresco]

80. Mississippi is going to put it to Bernie...

but good.