Why chasing every delegate matters. Bernie may win 3 of 4 contests this weekend...and lose ground

[Godhumor]

So March 5 and 6 will feature four contests:

Kansas
Nebraska
Louisiana
Maine

Even with the dirth of polling, Bernie will be a big favorite in Maine and could probably expect to win the other two caucuses, Kansas and Nebraska, as well.

However, he has no chance at Louisiana. In fact it isn't even going to be remotely close. And this is where math becomes tricky.

See, Louisiana is the most delegate rich state up for grabs this weekend with 51 (The other 3 states have 83 combined), and, according to the 538 aggregate, Hillary's spread is +44.8% over Bernie through today. That translates into a 23 delegate advantage for her.

Bernie would need to win the other three states by an average of 28% to match that delegate spread. Now, he's lost two of the three closed caucuses, so far (Nevada and American Samoa), but let's go ahead and assume the other, Colorado, is the best analogue for Bernie's upcoming weekend. He won CO by 18.5%.

If he averages an 18.5% victory in the three caucuses, he will finish with 15 to 16 more delegates than Clinton, total, for those contests. So for the entire weekend he would actually lose ground by the tune of 7 or 8 delegates. And another 4 states will be done, which shortens the calendar, again, to start the comeback (Especially with a murderer's row the next two weeks worth 863 delegates across 7 states and 1 territory. He is not likely to be favored in any of those races).

Sometimes it makes sense to fight for votes in states you know you'll lose instead of going for the headline of a win.

[MineralMan]

1. Delegate math can be complicated, for sure.

It has little to do with how many states a candidate wins. What matters is how many delegates each state has to allocate proportionally to the candidates. Winning a small state by a narrow margin isn't as important as winning a larger, more populous state by the same margin.

That's a point that was well-made on Tuesday. As of today, Clinton has about a 190 vote lead in the pledged delegate count. That's going to be hard to overcome, especially if your wins are in states with a low delegate count, like Maine.

[alcibiades_mystery]

2. I think Bernie will be +18 in delegates through the weekend

He will win Maine big, like very big. Delegate split will be 26-4.

He will win Kansas and Nebraska fairly big. Delegate splits will be 23-14 (Kansas) and 17-13 (Nebraska).

That's +35 for Bernie.

Clinton will win Louisiana, but Bernie will do slightly better than neighboring states due to NO. Clinton 38-21 Delegates, or +17.

If Clinton does win bigger in Louisiana, then it will be +16 Bernie.

Clinton will zero it out Tuesday, where she will be +16 in Mississippi. The Michigan break will be + Clinton

Saturday through Tuesday delegate net will be net gain for Clinton. She will probably expand her delegate lead to +220 by Wednesday morning.

[Godhumor]

6. You're counting Supers in your splits n/t

[alcibiades_mystery]

7. Where are the pledged delegate numbers by state?

[SidDithers]

9. RCP has a good summary...

with pledged and non-pledged delegates broken out by state.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Sid

[Godhumor]

10. I just pull it from Wikipedia

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

KS - 33
LA - 51
NE - 25
ME - 25

Supers:

KS - 4
LA - 8
NE - 5
ME - 5

And your Massive number would technically be outperforming Vermont (He would get all 30 delegates in your scenario, as the equivalent of 4 is under the 15% viability threshold).

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. OK, here...I'll adjust!

Thanks.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Info/delegates.html

[DrDan]

3. absolutely true - which makes it even more strange that he has yet to open a campaign office in Fl

[alcibiades_mystery]

4. Maybe he thinks Florida doesn't count, like 2008...they do love comparing 2008

[DrDan]

5. perhaps - we do know some of his acolytes here do not think the Southern states count

[thesquanderer]

11. He tried and failed in SC. Not sure he would be able to do anything about LA. (n/t)

[JaneyVee]

12. LA has a 20% threshold to get any delegates.

[Godhumor]

13. That's Republicans only. All Democratic contests are at 15% n/t

[JaneyVee]

14. Thanks for the info. And...

Thanks for these threads, my job is all a numbers game so i appreciate all math breakdowns.

[Godhumor]

15. No problem! Gives me something to do in my last days at the old job

Won't have nearly the time to do so starting next Wednesday, however.

[Beacool]

16. I think that they'll break even.

Sanders will probably win the three caucus states, but Hillary will do very well in Louisiana. She'll probably win both March 8 contests. She's ahead in MI & MS. The 538 has predicts that she will win both. Then comes March 15 where she's ahead in FL, IL, NC & OH. The 538 has predicted that she will win them all. There's no recent polling in Missouri. Not that it matter for the primaries, but she'll probably win Puerto Rico too.

All in all, I think that Hillary will be well ahead in pledged delegates after March 15.

[Godhumor]

17. Guess I should give this a bump n/t

[Lucinda]

18. KNR