There are 4 contests this weekend. Sanders is favored in 3 out of 4: Go Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine!

[Attorney in Texas]

There is little recent polling in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine, but the betting markets are active in these three upcoming contests:

In Kansas, Sanders is a 69% to 31% favorite.

In Nebraska, Sanders is a 79% to 21% favorite.

In Maine, Sanders is a 81% to 19% favorite.

Like the other Dixie states that share a border with the Clinton home field of Arkansas, expect Hillary to do well in Louisiana this weekend.

I suspect that Hillary will continue her sweep of the Deep South, but I expect that Sanders will extend his current 5-to-3 lead outside of Dixie to an ASTOUNDING 8-to-3 lead in states outside of the Deep-Red-Republican South!!!:

BIG WIN - New Hampshire!
BIG WIN - Colorado!
BIG WIN - Minnesota!
BIG WIN - Oklahoma!
BIG WIN - Vermont!
WIN PROJECTED - Kansas!
WIN PROJECTED - Nebraska!
WIN PROJECTED - Maine!

To those working on the campaign in Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine - Stay strong! Stay focused! Stay hopeful!

[Ned_Devine]

1. All wins are good wins, but ME is the important one

[winter is coming]

26. Why do you believe ME is the important one? n/t

[Ned_Devine]

36. Because it's a state he'll win in the GE, whereas the others aren't

[thesquanderer]

159. What difference does that make? (n/t)

[Arkana]

179. Because they have all the lobster.

[Beartracks]

240. LOL

======================

[PWPippin]

43. My husband and I will be caucusing in Maine on Sunday for Bernie!

[Enthusiast]

64. Thank you!

[PWPippin]

85. Our pleasure and our obligation for our grandchildren.

We attended Bernie's rally in Portland on Wednesday. It was so heartening to see so many young people lined up in the windy bitter cold rain hours before the doors were to open and the young people who have volunteered. I felt like an old war horse back in the traces energized by the enthusiasm and optimism. I don't want to see that quashed. Bernie must win!

[Enthusiast]

87. Bernie must win!

[PWPippin]

202. Our future and particularly the future of our children's children depend on it.

[truedelphi]

153. What a great report. It really has been so kuhl to have younger people

Invigorating our society - everything from them helping with transitional camps when tornadoes or wildfires devastate a community, to pulling together for a progressive cause!

[PWPippin]

204. At the first Bernie gathering I attended,

I said that this election really belongs to younger generations than mine, that they need to grab hold and begin to shape their future, begin to clean up after those of us who came before and in so many ways made a mess. As I said, I just hope they won't become demoralized, can keep their fire burning and begin to turn this rather sorry ship of state around.

My real initiation to campaigning for a President was when JFK ran. I couldn't vote, yet. You had to be 21. However, I proudly wore my "If I were 21, I'd vote for Kennedy" button, headed publicity on campus and met every whistle stop I could. I see a (much) younger me in the young people I'm meeting. It is exciting and heartening.

[democrattotheend]

192. You sound like my grandparents

Sadly, they passed away a few years ago, but they would have volunteered for Sanders and been really excited to see a self-described socialist have even a chance at becoming president. Part of my decision to support him was based on the fact that they are not around to do so. If he does win the election I will be really sad that they didn't live to see it.

[PWPippin]

210. I think your grandparents would be very proud of you.

They planted a political seed in you that you are honoring. With Bernie's vision and the combined work, dedication and will of many many people, may that seed come into fruition.

[democrattotheend]

219. Aww, thank you

I have some great memories of campaigning with my grandparents for Howard Dean and Barack Obama. My grandma was active in the civil rights movement back in the 60's, and I am really glad she lived long enough to see Obama's election in 2008. She got a little choked up when we went to an Obama rally in April 2008, saying she never thought we would see a black president in her lifetime.

[PWPippin]

242. What treasured memories!

You grandmother and I seemed to follow a similar political path. I took my two boys with me when I campaigned for local candidates and for McGovern. Then they grew up and I moved away. I was a Dean delegate at the state level and phone banked for Obama and, now Sanders. I worry that the younger people now involved will become dispirited if the worst happens, and we'll lose a generation of activists.

I was involved in a very small way in the civil rights movement when I was a college student and I was part of a group that picketed the S&W Cafeteria in Lynchburg, VA. I'm happy for your grandmother and you that she saw Obama take the oath of office. Against great odds, Obama was able to get a lot accomplished. I'm going to miss them and, especially, Michelle.

[Bubzer]

144. Awesome! Look forward to hearing how it goes!

As a side note... there's a lot of dirty tricks being employed against Bernie Supporters, so keep alert and stay safe!

Might also be good to know what some of those shenanigans look like. Here's some of the dirty tricks that have been used: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1280129486

Go Bernie!!!

[PWPippin]

205. Thanks for the heads up.

I've been appalled at some of the shenanigans (too nice a word for what they're doing) the dark side has been using.

I'll post how it goes on Sunday.

[Bubzer]

209. Look forward to reading your post!

[magical thyme]

157. me too! nt

[PWPippin]

212. Yeah! Let's hope for a yuuuuge turnout.

[magical thyme]

216. the weather should be pretty decent :-)

[PWPippin]

217. Let the sun shine in!

[GreenPartyVoter]

215. Me too! My first ever caucus!

[PWPippin]

218. It's a curious process. Enjoy.

I enjoyed reading your sig line explanation about why you registered as a Dem. Bernie is such a rare person and is so needed at this time. Sometimes it seems as though he was sent to us to lead the way - and I'm not a religious person.

[GreenPartyVoter]

243. He is absolutely the right man at the right time!

[libdem4life]

274. When the People are ready, the Leader will appear. n/t

[Political_Junkie]

147. I'll be there caucusing for Bernie!

[PWPippin]

195. Yeah! As goes Maine . . .

Last edited Fri Mar 4, 2016, 10:58 PM - Edit history (1)

Maybe ill see you. I'll be wearing my Bernie smile.

[appalachiablue]

197. So goes the nation. Showtime folks!

[PWPippin]

201. Love it!

And I wouldn't put it past Bernie. He should never be underestimated.

[yourpaljoey]

2. Rise! Rise! Damn, look at those numbers!!!

Momentum.

[corkhead]

3. that explains why we are not hearing about any contests this weekend in the corporate press

[hack89]

6. You understand that Hillary will win more delegates this weekend?

blow out wins in big states is what Bernie desperately needs. He is not getting them.

[timmymoff]

41. seems he is doing fine..

Both have four states the dems win. only one that is iffy is Virginia and it is iffy in twqo ways.. one it's still purple two it shows the dem establishment (DC) supported Clinton.. the ol' status quo.

[hack89]

54. Wins mean nothing. Delegates mean everything.

he is nearly 200 delegates down right now. Hillary is set up to win some big states with large delegate counts in the next two weeks.

[timmymoff]

59. yes, and when it gets closer seeing hillary

won by less than 2% in Iowa, 4% in Nevada and 2% in Massachusetts will make the super delegates wonder about the purple states she lost. Colorado, N.H. She is in just about the same postion she was when losing in 2008, from recollection.

[hack89]

71. When she wins Michigan by a large margin, what will your excuse be then?

There is no comparison to 2008. Remember - she barely won the popular vote and barely lost the delegate count. Right now she is winning both by large margins.

[Plucketeer]

105. The "excuse" will be

the wanton ignorance of your average dullard D-type. That and the slanted playboard the DNC has concocted.

[dreamnightwind]

156. Damn, well said, my sentiments exactly.

Most all of the people I've run into who support Hillary know very little about issues and who has supported what over their careers.

They know even less when it comes to any kind of system analysis of what has brought our country to its current situation, the dynamics of globalism verses populism, mass incarceration, drug policy, health policy (our uniquely american (corporate) solution), dismantling of regulatory structures and social safety nets, and the extent to which empire and its managers influence the Democratic Party as it is currently constructed.

[druidity33]

193. I love this post. VERY well encapsulated. K&R, nt.

[Plucketeer]

199. Indeed!

SO MANY know naught of the issues and HER stance on them. It's all about "she's earned it" or "it's HER turn" or the unspoken but undeniable Bill's other half. Genuinely makes me SHUDDER to think of the reasons that might well put her in the WH. Reasons every bit as valid as Make America Great Again!

[Lorien]

208. They're all heavy television consumers, in my experience

They aren't civic minded American citizens; they're easy marks for advertisers and propagandists. They "just like" Hillary, and they really don't know why. TV has that effect on many people.

[dreamnightwind]

229. Yes, and I think the system has worked for them

The pain hasn't fully spread to enough of them yet, and they aren't overly concerned that for so many it has.

They have bought into an ideology, which, despite its many flaws and collateral damage, is working for a number of them, at least superficially, though climate change, economic collapse, and wars will ultimately put the lie to this.

But for now, the ones I know are either old, done, and comfortable (don't rock the boat), or they're people with successful, mostly corporate careers who think those less fortunate should just get with the program.

But yeah, TV is a huge part of it, and the whole zeitgeist that corporate media has created.

[potone]

264. When you write posts like this...

it is no wonder your dog gets so excited! I feel the same way.

[mythology]

234. This sort of sanctimonious thought process I think is part of why Sanders is losing

It takes an incredible amount of arrogance and lack of self-reflection to assume that the people who disagree with you are all stupid. It's kind of hard to convince people to vote with you if you spend all your time looking down your nose at them.

[redruddyred]

251. not stupid, just ignorant

and possibly corrupt

[reACTIONary]

267. I guess you believe...

.... all those AA's supporting hillary are ignorant and corrupt.

[redruddyred]

270. yes that's exactly right

#berniebro #racist #troll

more likely is the political IOU, like her other 283019283092803 unelected superdelegates

i guess that's technically corruption

[reACTIONary]

269. I guess you consider hillary's AA supporters . ..

..... to be ignorant, average dullards. And maybe their participation is part of the DNCs devious plot against Bernie ?

[kath]

117. Not even 2% in MA - only 1% (to another significant figure, it is 1.4%. Which does NOT round to 2%)

[Gothmog]

256. Delegates are important if you want Sanders to be the nominee

Sanders is not keeping up in the delegate race for pledged delegates and is really far behind with respect to super delegates.

[yourpaljoey]

60. Such a Hillary 'win' will tear this party apart

And lead to a Hillary trouncing, at the hands of Trump, the likes of which this country has never seen. Mark these words.

[hack89]

73. It is unfortunate then that Bernie's supporters have failed him by refusing to vote. nt

[corkhead]

200. We're not the ones who won't be voting in November

Low information voters who are not engaged right now like we are will vote for the reality tv guy or stay home. Hillary has failed to offer a reason for the average drive by voter to vote for her other than she is not as bad as the alternative. That is not a recipe for a good turnout.

[obamanut2012]

84. She is ahead in popular votes and delegates

And should continue the trend this weekend and March 15. How is that a "win" when she is leading in both?

IT'S A WIN!

[greymouse]

101. it will be a lose

in the general if she gets that far. Nominee Hillary = President Trump. Nominee Bernie = President Bernie.

[Plucketeer]

106. Have you been readin' those pesky polls again?

Surely you realize the fix is in for the anointed!

[SCantiGOP]

108. The voters put in the fix

Sure you'll find a way to classify this as irrelevant, but last Tuesday Sanders won four states and picked up 28 more delegates than Clinton. In Texas alone (one of 7 states she won) she picked up 95 more delegates than Sanders.
In fact, in Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia she had a bigger margin in delegates won in each individual state than Sanders had in his four wins combined.

[Plucketeer]

129. Yup!

And how many of them - would you venture - are as informed as we here at DU are? Or Miss-Informed (or simply NOT informed) by the bogus news outlets they partake of? How many of them saw the debates on weekend nights? Yeah, Bernie's gotten fair and equal treatment by the DNC - all the way.

[Lorien]

207. And when the delegrates see that Hillary can't possibly win without carrying blue States

they'll make the logical switch.

[hack89]

222. It doesn't work that way

They are pledged to Hillary. If she has enough she is the nominee. They can't change on the first vote at convention .

[Pauldg47]

223. They can.....and nancy p. is starting the movement hack.

[hack89]

224. Not pledged delegates

They reflect the will of the voters. They have to vote Hillary the first round of voting.

[Pauldg47]

252. Election day is still a long time from now..lots of time and many arguments...revolution may begin.

[okasha]

253. So the blue states will suddenly go red for Trump?

Logic problem there.

It's the very white states Sanders is winning that are far more likely to go for Donald of the Dead Muskrat Hairpiece.

[Gothmog]

257. Super delegates will vote in the best interest of the party including down ballot races

Sanders would kill down ballot candidates and so it will be very very hard to get any super delegates to flip to Sanders.

[onenote]

56. Ummm.. There's a lot of Virginia that isn't anywhere near DC

I don't think the folks in Richmond and the surrounding areas are part of the "dem establishment (DC)" but they went for Clinton as did the vast majority of the counties in the state.

[timmymoff]

61. ok

seems a lot like 2008 though. Will their be PUMA's from the Hillary camp like 2008?

[onenote]

63. There seems to be less indication of PUMAs from the Clinton side than the Sanders side

and I say that as someone who voted for Sanders in the Virginia primary and who wants him to stay in the race until the convention even if he is mathematically eliminated before then.

If there is something from the Clinton side akin the pledge drives I've seen referenced here that seek to have Sanders supporters pledge to write in Sanders' name if he doesn't get the nomination, I haven't seen it.

[timmymoff]

67. yes

Sanders supporters are more vocal, but Hillary supporters don't want to let people know they skipped in 2008. You know, they are about perception more than fact. I watched the GOP debates last night, I seriously doubt any liberal will avoid the presidential vote if they witnessed that display of nonsense.

[bbrady42]

109. It seems exactly like 2008

One candidate's chances of winning enough delegates to get the nomination keeps getting smaller and smaller, but the candidate's supporters choose not to accept that.

In 2008 that candidate was Hillary Clinton.
In 2016 it's Bernie Sanders.

[Hortensis]

92. No, you see he is badly behind, which means he

has to win a lot more DELEGATES than Hillary. He can win more delegates than her from a lot of smaller states and continue to lose all the while (simply because he is not winning enough to catch up), and that is what is expected to happen.

Don't forget, even in those states he gets a majority in, she's also adding delegates to her total.

Then we get to all the states she is expected to win by solid to large majorities, and most of those are larger states.

As of now,
Hillary has 1058
Bernie has 431
Uncommitted 172

Remaining delegates to win 3275

[magical thyme]

165. You realize you are counting Superdelegates, right? Which can change and are not counted until

the convention?

They may state their personal preferences, but that doesn't mean that's the way they will vote.

[thereismore]

8. True dat! nt

[FailureToCommunicate]

58. Wait, there are states voting this weekend?

[BlueMTexpat]

111. Louisiana ...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/la/louisiana_democratic_presidential_primary-5695.html

[FailureToCommunicate]

133. ...

[Nyan]

142. I know.

Fuck 'em. I love when Bernie rants against corporate media. It's very brave of him.

[lostnfound]

241. MSNBC is showing "Louisiana polls open" but no mention

Of KS ME and NE.

[liberal_at_heart]

249. exactly.

[Cali_Democrat]

4. Keep telling yourself that certain states don't count if it makes you feel better

When Hillary is accepting the nomination in Philadelphia, you'll be screaming that it didn't count.

BTW, Hillary is going to blow out Bernie in Louisiana so the chances are pretty good that she'll end up winning more delegates this weekend.

But remember, it doesn't count!

[Gregorian]

7. Then in the general election, she'll discover the truth about those states that "don't count".

[Attorney in Texas]

14. The primary calendar does not bend strongly in Sanders' favor until March 22 through April 9.

The races after Super Dixie Tuesday and up through March 15 are a mixed bag - some leaning toward each candidate and some probably too close to call.

We'll see soon enough!

[Godhumor]

27. Pretty sure Hillary is favored, overwhelmingly in every contest after this weekend

Through the 15th, with the exception of Missouri (Which didn't have any recent polling to go on at this time).

Nothing else from March 8 through 15 can be considered a mixed bag.

[Attorney in Texas]

31. It's hard to say how events and state-by-state results will play out between now and then. We'll see

soon enough.

[alarimer]

77. Which is why Kos and company are calling for him to drop out after March 15

Never mind that Hillary herself didn't quit until June last time.

[Lizzie Poppet]

134. Yep...at that point, unless the constant media "it's over" bleating works, the tables turn.

The question is whether or not it's enough, in time...

[Gwhittey]

191. And then

only until she was promised the SoS nomination.

[hedda_foil]

220. Not just the SoS nomination.

Also help paying back her 2008 campaign debt. And most importantly, a cleared path to the 2016 nomination and her choice of DNC head.

I also think that Bill has been allowed to act as the Democratic facto head of the party during Obama's administration, as he was from 2001-'08. But that's just a feeling.

[kath]

119. THIS.

Keep on putting the truth out there, AiT!

[Gothmog]

258. I love the way that you cherry pick and cite some results of Predictwise but ignore others

According to Predictwise, Sanders has 5% to 6% probability of being the Democratic nominee. These percentages are far more meaningful that cherry picking individual states and ignoring the number of delegates that are available in these states.

[Attorney in Texas]

263. It's not cherry picking - I'm expecting betting markets to accurately predict events occurring today

and tomorrow (and the betting markets have a pretty good record of accuracy for such short short-term predictions).

I am discounting (but not ignoring) betting market predictions about events months and months away for which data is still being gathered. Betting markets are not particularly accurate at predicting events months and months away for which data is still being gathered (this summer, for example, Jeb! was a huge betting market favorite and Trump was a longshot).

Sanders' long term chances have gone up and down in the betting markets, and they will continue to go up and down (for example, they will go UP when Sanders wins Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine this weekend; they may gown the week after that; they will rise during the stretch from March 22 to April 9).

This is how betting markets work.

[Gothmog]

273. Your cherry picking is amusing

Winning three small states that do not represent the demographics of the Democratic Party are not likely to affect the betting or predictive markets given that the markets expect that the results of the Louisiana primary will likely offset these results. With proportional representation, it is difficult to overcome the either pledge delegate lead or the total delegate lead enjoyed by Clinton. The predictive markets are well aware of the number of delegates at stake and have factored this into the long term odds or probability of Sanders becoming the nominee. The predictive markets have also factored in the likely-hood of super delegates flipping.

How many super delegates do you know. I saw that Gilberto Hinojosa committed this week. http://www.democraticunderground.com/110762736 Good luck in convincing a super delegate like Chairman Hinojosa to change his vote to a candidate who will likely hurt down ballot races in Texas. Again, the current delegate lead enjoyed by Hillary Clinton is real and will be very difficult to overcome.

You can cherry pick favorable results for individual states to your hearts content but the results in these states are not going to materially affect the odds of Sanders being the nominee of the Democratic Party.

If you really believe that Sanders will be the nominee, then the current odds should be attractive to you. You can lock these odds in by buying an option agreement on one of the markets. The purchase of such an option or the placing of the bet depending on the market would lock the returns in now. While the odds will change in the future, you can lock in a favorable pricing now if you so believe your own analysis.

[Pharaoh]

74. ^^this^^

[basselope]

17. And when Trump is being sworn in, what will you tell yourself to make yourself feel better?

Oh yeah, you'll just blame those damn kids who never show up.

[2pooped2pop]

93. I'll say too bad people were blinded and voted for more corporate takeover

We told them she couldn't beat the Republicans but they played deaf.

[Chelsea2032]

33. Bernie has no chance in the south

White-male, Northeastern-jew does not do well south of the Mason Dixon. This is setting up for a long campaign. Hillary sweeps the South, Bernie dominates west of the Mississippi, and the Northeast will determine the next president.

[LiberalArkie]

89. A democratic candidate can not win the south in the General election. Maybe in 10 or 15 years.

[Chelsea2032]

94. Bill

[Kittycat]

102. Is he running again

[babylonsister]

185. Ha!

[LiberalArkie]

121. Maybe if we had a 35-45 year old dynamic guy telling us he was going to bring us health care

and stop wars etc, people might elect him, but probably not as we have been fooled way too many times.

[GeoWilliam750]

125. Quick question

In 1992, in the general election, in how many of the 50 states did Bill receive an absolute majority of the vote?

Answer. He had a grand total of ONE, Arkansas. Bill only won the national election with 43% of the national vote in 1992 because the Republican vote was split by Ross Perot.

In 1996, Bill did better with his incumbent advantage, almost exactly equaling the combined Dole and Perot. Because of Perot splitting the Republican vote, Bill took Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. Without these states, Bill would have still received 270 of 538 electoral votes, thus squeaking into the presidency because the New Hampshire vote was further split by the Libertarian party.

With all the advantages of an incumbent with a strong economy, Bill Clinton was able to achieve a majority of the vote in 19 states with a total of 230 electoral votes. This strikes me as less than an overwhelming achievement. Obama's victories on the other hand were impressive indeed.

In both of his presidential campaigns, a majority of the electorate voted AGAINST Bill Clinton. Then the question is, in 1996, in how many Southern states did Bill Clinton receive an absolute majority?

The answer is two - Arkansas and Louisiana.

Bill Clinton should kneel before a statue of Ross Perot every morning in thanks for his intervention in two elections. And Hillary is not Bill.

Looking at the 2016 Presidential election, who is going to split the Republican vote so that Hillary can take the Southern states?

[floppyboo]

250. Jesse Ventura

Looking sorta/kinda likely. Trump up against Jesse? Who's going to be cutting whose hair?
And, he'd likely get a lot of Sanders' indie Libertarian voters.

[timmymoff]

44. yay she is winning the blue dog vote lol

[Cali_Democrat]

47. Actually, conservatives are going for Bernie:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511412959

[retrowire]

53. Hmmm...

So Republicans have beaten the Dems in voter turnout in every contest so far....

And Bernie is more appealing to conservatives more than Hillary...

You really think Hillary would win the GE? Those are ingredients enough to show that she won't. Low Dem turnout and little conservative appeal?

[6chars]

230. there seems to be a demographic split in dem voting patterns

from what I have read, it is not so much left-right in the party, as Hillary having very strong AA support compared to Bernie, and that largely explains her lead. it is unclear whether how that AA support to the average AA positions on the left-right spectrum. if the opinion polls and exit polls that indicate the strong AA support are also categorizing most AA voters as liberal Democrats, that would explain why Hillary is doing relatively better with liberal Democrats and Bernie with moderate Democrats than might be expected

[hack89]

5. Yet Hillary will win more delegates, putting him further behind. Nt

[unc70]

12. Unlikely LA will offset the other three states

I suppose it could happen, but right now it looks like a modest gain for Sanders from those four states. Her lead in LA could be large, but it is a small state.

[hack89]

19. LA has 58 delegates and Bernie is polling below the 15% threshold

So Hillary has a good chance to get them all. That's a big hole for Bernie.

[Lizzie Poppet]

135. Hardly surprising in that state.

So she wins by a landslide in another state that will give its Electors to the Republican.

If we can't turn this around, November is going to be a disaster of Biblical proportions.

[Garrett78]

238. You think Kansas and Nebraska will be won by the Democratic nominee?

It doesn't matter that Louisiana has more Republicans than Democrats when we're talking about a Democratic primary. Which state's Democratic electorate do you think is more representative of the overall/nationwide Democratic electorate, Louisiana or Nebraska? North Carolina or Kansas? Mississippi or Minnesota? Florida or Vermont?

Do you really think the Democratic electorate in Georgia is drastically different from the Democratic electorate in Illinois?

[reACTIONary]

265. LA is 32% AA...

.,.. the second largest AA population in the country. So their vote isn't important in selecting the Democratic nominee ? And why, exactly?

[Lizzie Poppet]

266. Nope. That's not what I said (or implied).

Thanks for asking, though.

[reACTIONary]

268. Well, that's a relief. Hope you ....

.... think these things through a little bit more before you dismiss the importance of our fellow democrates participation again.

[Lizzie Poppet]

272. "Again" requires doing something a first time.

Please don't erect straw men or make false accusations, m'kay? They tend to make condescending quips about my thought process look a tad, um...ironic.

[Godhumor]

29. The other three combined are only 83

As I posted recently, as polling stand now, LA more than cancels the other 3.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511405171

[reformist2]

45. That's just wrong, and everyone knows it. But most Hill supporters look the other way...

[hack89]

57. Why is it wrong?

Bernie is polling below the 15% threshold in LA so Hillary most likely will take all 58 delegates. She will also take her share of the delegates from the other, smaller states.

[TheFarseer]

228. I really doubt he gets below 15%

It hasn't happened in any other state.

[Godhumor]

132. Please enlighten us on the math n/t

[reformist2]

148. Wrong, as in bad.

[NurseJackie]

137. Isn't it great how that works? :-D

[840high]

9. Those working on the campaign - stay ALERT.

[Blue_Adept]

10. Didn't we just have a bucketload of posts about how states like these don't count?

[msongs]

11. but the sanders crowd keeps telling us red states are meaningless lol nt

[Attorney in Texas]

18. No states are meaningless. Clinton's performance in the less progressive states has meaning just as

her relative under-performance in the more progressive states has a different meaning.

All states get delegates. All states count. All states should have a say (not just the less progressive states front loaded toward the beginning of the primary calendar).

[brooklynite]

13. It was only a month ago that Caucuses were "undemocratic"...

How times change.

[magical thyme]

168. They are. But they are what we are stuck with at the moment. I'm caucusing on Sunday

for the first time and dreading it after the circuses of the Iowa and Nevada caucuses. I'm older, fighting a cold and have much better things to do with my time than waste it on a disorganized clusterfuck. I would have preferred to just vote. I could have opted for the absentee mail-in caucus, but now I feel obligated to go to observe, in order to record and report any and all irregularities I see.

[druidity33]

196. Bless you and Thank you! nt.

[AzDar]

15. Go, Bernie GO!!

[MineralMan]

16. And, then, there's Michigan.

It has more delegates than the four others combined.

[basselope]

20. And then there is NY and California.

[MineralMan]

22. Not this month, though.

NY is in April, and CA in June. Lots of stuff to come before those.

Both appear to be in Hillary's camp, based on current polling. Even if that changes, the delegates will be split proportionally, as they are in all states.

NY will go for Hillary. California probably will, too, although it may be close. We shall see. There are several primaries before those, though, so I'm not watching those states too closely yet.

[basselope]

55. Bernie is ahead in both ny and Cali...

and most of the states to come.

You preficted a,Clinton win in MN... so... you've lost credibility in the prediction dept.

The only way Clinton wins the nom is via superdelegates.

And then say hello to Preseident Trump.

[grossproffit]

68. Source, please?

[basselope]

113. Links were posted on DU yesterday

[Pauldg47]

225. His momentum should carry him through by then....be prepared.

[Godhumor]

110. He is ahead in neither. What on earth makes you think he is? n/t

[basselope]

114. The most recent polls.

[Godhumor]

120. Which would be HRC +11 in CA and +21 in NY

Which you can find at any of the major aggregator sites.

[basselope]

149. old info

newest show him ahead in both

[Godhumor]

150. Feel free to link so we can all see that the three aggregation sites are wrong

And that the news networks are actively ignoring such a seismic shift in the campaign.

[basselope]

158. It was posted in this forum yesterday with links.

[Godhumor]

163. So link it n/t

[basselope]

164. It was posted in this forum yesterday with links.

[Godhumor]

167. Uh huh. Strange.

I would imagine it would have hundreds of recs. And huge numbers of people screaming about the MSM not talking about it.

Or it doesn't exist.

I'm picking the second option.

[basselope]

170. Don't really care what YOU pick.

Facts are facts. Last polls had him up in NY and CA

[Godhumor]

176. Clinton +11 CA, +21 NY. Those ARE the last polls

Here, I'll even post links... Something you seem to have a hard time doing.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-new-york-presidential-democratic-primary

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-california-democratic-presidential-primary

[basselope]

181. Incorrect on all counts.

[Godhumor]

183. For God's sake then, prove it

Because right now your polls are add mythical as the animal of your username.

[basselope]

188. No need to prove reality.

It was posted on this forum yesterday with links.

I didn't bother saving it, nor do I care to search.

It just is what it is.

He is ahead in CA and NY.

[Number23]

172. I'm picking your second option too. If it was so pervasive in this forum, that person could have

linked to it 12 times by now.

Between your numbers and mine, it's clear that right now, Clinton is whooping Sanders pretty damn bad in both states.

[Godhumor]

178. I even went to Overtime Politics, the wretched hive of scum and villainy

For those who want dishonest results, and even they have nothing on NY or CA. They don't exist, even in fraudulent form.

[Number23]

145. Sanders is ahead in neither state. What in the world??

[basselope]

161. He's leading in both.

Please do catch up with Reality.

[Number23]

171. Sanders is not ahead in California or New York. Do please get a grip.

Clinton is up anywhere from 10 to almost 20 in California http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

And up around 20 in New York! http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

Again I ask, what in the world are you talking about?

[basselope]

173. VERY old information.

He is leading in BOTH NY and CA.

Sorry for the bad news to Clintonites.

[Number23]

174. My info is from February. You have not posted anything except "he's leading. I don't have a single

link, article, blog or shred of evidence to prove it, but he's leading."

I'll take RCP, even if it was five year old data, over some anonymous person on the Internet any day of the week.

[basselope]

180. Okay.

It was posted on this forum yesterday.

He is ahead in both NY and CA.

It's just the facts.

But Clintonites aren't good with those, are they?

[Number23]

182. If you liked "facts" you would have posted them the first five times you were asked

You should really stop embarrassing yourself now.

[Godhumor]

184. I think the poster is bored and just passing the time

Probably a signal we should stop giving the poster his or her weird source of fun.

[Number23]

189. I don't think it's fun, I think it's some weird type of desperate hope and denial

It's kind of sad, whatever it is.

But either way a) I'm bored and b) it's obvious he's got nothing. So yeah, I think we can head out to something a bit more interesting.

[Number23]

275. As late as you are to this thread and discussion, you'd think you'd be better able to read through

and stay on topic.

The conversation was CLEARLY about Hillary beating Sanders in California and New York. Why you are coming in a day late and dollar short with some polls that show the race between Clinton and Trump is ridiculous and incredibly hilarious.

[basselope]

187. I did post the facts.

He is ahead in CA and NY.

[Attorney in Texas]

23. And between Michigan and NY there's Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, etc

[MineralMan]

24. Along with some other states, as well.

Keep an eye on this site:

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D

You can follow the pledged delegate count there, as well as the popular vote.

[Attorney in Texas]

25. Yes, that's generally what "etc." means.

[druidity33]

198. Thanks for that link! nt.

[basselope]

115. Bernie ahead in most of those :)

[Attorney in Texas]

118. Sanders looks to be favored in ALL of those by some metrics

[DrDan]

30. and then Florida, Illinois, Ohio - all big hitters

[MineralMan]

32. Yes, those too.

I haven't memorized the total number of delegates in each state, but when I do look, it's eye-opening.

Florida, Ohio and Illinois are monster states for delegates. Together, they swamp whole collections of other states, it seems.

[DrDan]

34. and all leaning in the right direction

[Attorney in Texas]

37. Leaning in the FAR right direction

[timmymoff]

49. exactly

we are doing what we can in Illinois to defeat Her Corporateness, but you know with the Rahm machine she so loves Oh BTW Hillary is lucky I am not sponsoring commercials in Illinois I'd tie her to Rahm Emmanuel in every which way.

[questionseverything]

254. downstate illinois here

this morning doing errands i saw several bernie yard signs and a few bumper stickers

not one hc yet

if chicago votes for her after the stuff rahm has pulled i will be surprised

i wish some young person would put together a commercial with the rahm info.....to spread on the net

[WillyT]

21. Huge K & R !!!

[TIME TO PANIC]

28. K & R!

[BainsBane]

35. Check out March 15

And the delegates available in the various states. It's hard to win the nomination when your victories are in low delegate states.

[Attorney in Texas]

38. Gotta take each week as it comes. After March 15 comes a GREAT stretch for Sanders and March 15 may

have some surprises for those Hillarians who insist on counting chickens before they have hatched.

[BainsBane]

69. What surprise?

Those states have demographics that favor Sanders. His campaign has explicitly said they are targeting caucus states because they think they do better with lower turnout. http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-iowa-obama-playbook-218137
They have been open about that for months.

But the fact is LA has the biggest delegate haul tomorrow, and Clinton is overwhelmingly favored. Depending on margins, it's possible Clinton could lose those three states yet still wil more delegates than Sanders tomorrow. Regardless, he won't be able to cut into her lead much.


It's unfortunate that you can't deal with something as simple as odds and delegate counts--from the very source your yourself site--without name calling.

[Attorney in Texas]

70. Demographics is not destiny. You should not assume that all people within a demographic group vote

alike.

[Number23]

146. "they are targeting caucus states because they think they do better with lower turnout."

From your link:

“Caucuses are very good for Bernie Sanders,” explained chief Sanders strategist Tad Devine, likening the 2016 strategy to the one he deployed as Mike Dukakis’ field director in 1988. “Caucuses tend to be in the much-lower turnout universe, and having people who intensely support you in events like that makes a huge difference. You saw that with President Obama in 2008, and you’re going to see it with Bernie Sanders."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-iowa-obama-playbook-218137#ixzz41ymlFs3Q

Does that not say everything that needs to be fucking said or what??????? And Obama's appeal was, is and always has been significantly greater than Sanders' within the Dem party so them trying to do the "we're doing what Obama did in 2008" is surreal.

[NurseJackie]

98. Even California will come too late to save Bernie. He'd have to win by a HUGE margin...but he won't.

The numbers just are there. Time is running out. The polls do not favor him. Just some small-delegate states (which he'll have to share/split the delegates with Hillary) and those states don't have enough to make up for the BIG wins that Hillary will have in some DELEGATE RICH states.

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[Helen Borg]

39. Expected! Doesn't count!

[Cobalt Violet]

40. So in other word the media will only cover and see as important Louisiana

Go Bernie Go!

[iandhr]

42. If we follow the logic of some Sanders supporters Nebraska, Kansas don't matter.

I heard all the time that Clinton's victories in red state primaries didn't matter. So Sanders don't either if we use the same standers.


I am of the opinion that they all matter. Both Clinton wins and potential Sanders wins.

[PatrynXX]

50. I consider Nebraska to be a shade of purple

because of Omaha. But Kansas suggests to me an electorate thats pissed at the anti government squad (Tea Party)

I don't know much about Maine except Stephen King is probably a fan

[Attorney in Texas]

51. If we follow the logic of Clinton, she was dodging a barrage of sniper fire in this photo:

Brian Williams was fired for less self aggrandizing "exaggeration" than this.

[Herman4747]

214. Notice how she bravely kept her cool!

And one has to remember that she can keep her cool when rising to the top because she was named after famed mountaineer, Sir Edmund Hillary.

Or, maybe not: http://www.snopes.com/politics/clintons/hillary.asp

[timmymoff]

52. If i followed the logic of hillary supporters

Corporate money and speeches don't matter, but hey that's a different topic isn't it? Support for bad trade deals don't matter. Support for regime change don't matter. Support for Monsanto don't matter. Wal-mart, ad infitum

[tblue37]

72. Honey Badger don't care. nt

[PatrynXX]

46. Nebraska would surprise me slightly

more or less at one time one section of the state went Obama. Don't know what but in 2012 they counted the whole state so it went against Obama. Closet to Omaha the more blue things are.

[blackspade]

48. Rec, but I think that the "Deep-Red-Republican South" meme

Does a great disservice to the Black voters by minimizing their voices in this primary.
I don't like that they voted for Clinton, but that was their choice to make.
Using that choice as a cudgel in the way you're framing it only further alienates Black voters from Sanders and his message.

So can we as a group drop the "Deep-Red-Republican South" angle and work to be more inclusive even to people that, at this point, aren't feeling the Bern like the rest of us?

[Attorney in Texas]

65. "Deep-Red-Republican South" issue is cultural, NOT racial. Ask yourself: has Sanders won the white

vote in the states of the SEC? Leaving aside the Hispanic vote and the African American vote and all other racial and ethnic minority votes, how are white voters in the states of the SEC responding to the progressive candidate in the race as compared to white voters outside of the SEC states?

Leaving all African Americans out of the equation, the Deep South isn't overly welcoming of Progressives, and is especially unwelcoming of Progressives from the Northeast (not to mention Jewish Progressives from the Northeast).

Ask yourself: When someone from one of the states of the SEC calls someone else a "Yankee," are you of the impression that they generally mean this as a positive compliment on their geographic home state? We're in agreement that the phrase "Damn Yankee" is more commonly heard in the South than the phrase "Beloved Yankee," right?

No one is disputing that there are Klansman outside of the states of the SEC, but isn't it an indisputable fact that the predominance of these Klansmen are in states of the SEC? Do you think it is the African Americans in the states of the SEC that have not socially ostracized such blatant racists because I don not subscribe to that view even one bit. There is a hostility to Progressivism in the Deep South that has nothing whatsoever to do with the African Americans in those states.

THIS IS NOT A RACIAL ISSUE, BUT IT IS NOT A SECRET THAT THE DEEP SOUTH IS LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN MOST OF THE US.

[alarimer]

80. What about all the people who haven't even voted yet?

I think all these calls (from the media and from people like Kos) calling for him to drop out as early as the 15th do the same thing.

[tblue37]

62. Caucusing for Bernie in Kansas tomorrow! nt

[MuseRider]

97. Me too

along with my husband. I expect we will have a large group.

[tblue37]

155. I am in Lawrence. You? nt

[MuseRider]

226. Just South of Topeka.

We caucus in Topeka. I just got home from eating in Lawrence. Lots of young people asking about the caucusing and how to do it, all very excited to go and all for Bernie. Of course it is Lawrence but.....only one I heard from who is probably going for Clinton but she was older like me.

One of my husbands cousins was in Lawrence yesterday when Bernie was in town. I don't think she knew he was there but she saw all this activity as she was driving down Mass street and when she stopped at the light she noticed that Bernie was standing right in front of her car, crossing of course but she was stunned. What a surprise that would have been!

[NurseJackie]

66. So we're counting "states" now? I thought it was DELEGATES. Interesting. Go figure!

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[Attorney in Texas]

78. You may be surprised to learn this, but neither polls nor betting markets are DELEGATE specific so

projecting a state win or loss is about as specific as you can reasonably project (and even polls and betting markets are not all that accurate).

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

75. Not quite as super Saturday?

Or do some vote Sun?

[jillan]

76. Wow - I had no idea. Thanks for posting!

[xynthee]

79. Damn, I thought those were poll numbers at first!

That would have been nice!!

[arcane1]

81. This is why team Clinton is trying to hard to convince us to give up.

She's been reduced to needing overseas fundraisers in order to get campaign cash, while our momentum is still rising.

They know she will lose if we don't give up.

[Cleita]

86. We will not give up. n/t

[dana_b]

131. keep fighting and

#feeltheBern !!

[sabrina 1]

82. Hillary and Trump sweep the South. Bernie has the Progressive vote locked down.

[ejbr]

83. Thanks for posting

After the day I've had, I could use some bright news

[silverweb]

88. Go, Bernie!

[font color="purple"]Go, Bernie!
Feelin' The Bern!

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

90. Supporting Hillary in Maine. I sent in an absentee ballot. n/t

[Attorney in Texas]

140. Glad you are getting a chance to exercise your franchise.

[SheenaR]

91. 85+% in Maine would be a good grab for Sanders

Will be tough though to get over the threshold. Nebraska will not be close but only 25 delegates and Kansas will not give us a ton.

[Attorney in Texas]

95. That would be pretty optimistic. I'd love to see it, but I'll be happy with a comfortable win.

[SheenaR]

99. Definitely Optimistic

But it would be a way to win the delegate battle for the weekend

[Attorney in Texas]

104. True.

[magical thyme]

162. those weren't polls, but betting percentages. Polls have Bernie up about 15 points in Maine

not 85.

I did a double-take when I saw those numbers, then re-read.

[SheenaR]

213. Lol

Ok

I know how to read

He is getting at least 75%

I'm hoping for the 85

[MissDeeds]

96. W00T!!!!

Kansas for Bernie!! Let's get this done!!!

[Cleita]

100. Thanks. I was about to put something like this together to keep track of Bernie's progress

but you did it. Thanks again.

[jopacaco]

103. My husband and I will caucus for Bernie on Sunday in Maine!

We have never gone before so this is a first for us. Go Bernie!!!!

[Attorney in Texas]

139. Thank you!

[George II]

107. The Civil War is over, all states in the "Deep South" (i.e., "Dixie") were readmitted to the Union..

....about 150+ years ago.

Their citizens are Americans and have the right to vote, and each of their votes is just as important as the votes of people in New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.

[Attorney in Texas]

112. So we agree that the Dixie vote is not to be valued to the exclusion of the MAJORITY of votes cast

after March 15?

We agree that it is offensive for someone to declare victory based on the Dixie vote before a majority of voters have had their say in the race?

I'm not disputing that the Deep South gets a vote in the nominating process; I'm disputing that a handful of the least progressive Republican states get to choose the Democratic nominee before a majority of Democratic states even get to cast their votes.

[George II]

141. "We agree that it is offensive for someone to declare victory based on the Dixie vote"

No we don't "agree" - who said that or even implied that? Certainly not me.

And you're also ignoring the fact that in those "handful of the least progressive states", those who voted were Democrats voting in Democratic primaries. You're acting like they were republicans.

The way it works is that Democrats get to choose the Democratic nominee, regardless of what state they live in.

I didn't see anyone complaining when Sanders was "ahead" after only two states, with very small constituencies that were atypical of American demographics, voted.

[Gore1FL]

235. They were never readmitted. They never left the Union in the first place. n/t

[George II]

244. "Dates of southern states readmitted to the U.S."

http://civilwartalk.com/threads/dates-of-southern-states-readmitted-to-the-u-s-and-local-rule-reestablished.19808/

South Carolina:
-Seceded: Dec. 20, 1860
-Admitted into C.S.: Feb. 4, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: July 9, 1868
-Local rule reestablished: Nov. 28, 1876

Mississippi:
-Seceded: Jan. 9, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: Feb. 4, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: Beg. 23, 1870
-Local rule reestablished: Jan. 4, 1876

Florida:
-Seceded: Jan 10, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: Feb. 4, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: June 25, 1868
-Local rule reestablished: Jan 2, 1877

Alabama:
-Seceded: Jan. 11, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: Feb. 4, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: July 14, 1868
-Local rule reestablished: Nov. 16, 1874

Georgia:
-Seceded: Jan. 19, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: Feb 4, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: July 15, 1870
-Local rule reestablished: Nov. 1, 1871

Louisiana:
-Seceded Jan. 26, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: Feb. 4, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: June 25, 1868 or July 9, 1868
-Local rule reestablished: Jan. 2, 1877

Texas:
-Seceded: Feb. 1, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: Mar. 2, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: Mar. 30, 1870
-Local rule reestablished: Jan. 14, 1873

Virginia:
-Seceded: April 17, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: May 7, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: Jan. 26, 1870
-Local rule reestablished: Oct. 5, 1869

Arkansas:
-Seceded: May 6, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: May 18, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: June 22, 1868
-Local rule reestablished: Nov. 10, 1874

Tennessee:
-Seceded: May 6, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: May 16, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: July 24, 1866
-Local rule reestablished: Oct. 4, 1869

North Carolina:
-Seceded: May 21, 1861
-Admitted into C.S.: May 16, 1861
-Readmitted into U.S.: July 4, 1868
-Local rule reestablished Nov. 28, 1876

[Gore1FL]

245. They never left the Union.

We had a war over it and everything.

[Smarmie Doofus]

116. I'm keeping my mouth shut, then, til AFTER this weekend.

THEN.... Dems, we need to talk.

[Duval]

122. K&R!

Go Bernie Go!

[valerief]

123. Bill Clinton is going to be busy shutting down polling stations this weekend! nt

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

124. Wait until he hits the left coast states.

I t could be ugly. You may want to send the kiddies to bed early.

We will see what we will see.

[Progressive dog]

126. The race is for delegates, not states

and Hillary is way ahead in delegates awarded in the primaries/caucuses. That is the reality.

[magical thyme]

166. The reality is that Bernie needed Super Tuesday to be within 150 delegates to remain viable. He beat

that number handily.

The map turns increasingly in his favor as time goes on.

And Hillary is not way ahead *unless* you are prematurely counting Superdelegates, which is a farce. They are not cast in stone, they can and do change their mind, and they vote against the will of the people at their own peril.

Any number of things can happen between now and the convention. That is the reality.

[Sky Masterson]

127. I'm caucusing for Bernie in Kansas!

First time I've ever caucused and I'm bringing a friend.

[Attorney in Texas]

130. Thank you!

[dana_b]

128. Go Bernie! Go Bernie!!

I wonder what those at the Daily Kos will write about then... how great it was that their candidate came in second?? How the SDs put her over the edge??

Bernie ALL THE WAY!!!

[azurnoir]

136. well Hillary's acolytes are still whistling Dixie

[Lorien]

211. And Dixie won't help her in the least come November

The South loathes Hillary, and yet they're some of the only states with enough hardcore right wing "Dixiecrats" to give her delegates. There simply aren't enough of them to get her even halfway to a general election win. If her fans were even a little bit honest with themselves they would see this, and realize that we're not going to "fall in line" if her buddies at the DNC crown her the candidate.

[aaaaaa5a]

138. Good news for Bernie and all of us as progressives

because Bernie wins enough to keep the primary season going. But he doesn't win enough big, important statewide primaries to seriously threaten Clinton's nomination.

This allows both candidates to continue to reach voters and gives Hillary the chance to continue to fine tune her campaign for the GE.

Bernie Sanders is a protest candidate. And I am very happy he has moved our eventual nominee left. I also like long primary seasons. It makes candidates better for the GE. This is why this scenario is good for Hillary.

It s a win/win for all of us.

[griffi94]

151. that's how i see it as well

i like that bernie's moving everything left.
i hope he stays in til the convention and while i expect hillary
to have it mostly nailed down by april i'll vote for however our eventual nominee is.

[SidDithers]

143. ...

Sid

[edbermac]

160. Jury results.

Well that was brief.

On Fri Mar 4, 2016, 04:15 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

You're posting propaganda. So here's a nice word for you.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1414373

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

Personal attack on 2nd post.

JURY RESULTS

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Fri Mar 4, 2016, 04:19 PM, and the Jury voted 4-3 to HIDE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Enjoy your stay.
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Tired and disgusted at fellow-DUers calling each other "liars" . Stop with the personal attacks already.
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: Name calling has to stop. It's getting out of hand along with the Gang bullying.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: That's ok poster, MIRT will delete your post for you, no need to self-delete. Bye.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[Helen Borg]

169. in short: Hillary is toast

[Beacool]

177. Only on "Sanders Underground".

[Beacool]

175. Hillary is predicted to win the following states.

March 5
Kansas - No recent polling - 33 Delegates
Louisiana - Hillary +40.5 - 51 Delegates
Nebraska - No recent polling - 25 Delegates

March 6
Maine - No recent polling - 25 Delegates

March 8
Michigan - Hillary +19.2 - Predicted to win by the 538 - 130 Delegates
Mississippi - Hillary +34 - 36 Delegates

March 15
Florida - Hillary +29 - Predicted to win by the 538 - 214 Delegates
Illinois - Hillary +19 - Predicted to win by the 538 - 156 Delegates
Missouri - No recent polling - 71 Delegates
North Carolina - Hillary +18.6 - Predicted to win by the 538 - 107 Delegates
Ohio - Hillary +15 - Predicted to win by the 538 - 143 Delegates

Even if Sanders does well in KS, NE and ME, Hillary will rack up more delegates in the primary states.

[Garrett78]

186. LA has more delegates and is more representative of the Dem electorate.

Even if Sanders wins 3 of 4 this weekend, he may not walk away with more delegates. People like to refer to "Dixie" and "Deep South" and even "Confederacy" without acknowledging that the Democratic electorate in those southern states are more representative of the overall Democratic electorate than the Democratic electorate in places like Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, Maine, Vermont and so on.

[ucrdem]

190. LOL, it's not Republicans in the South who vote for Hillary.

And it's not Republicans who will elect her in November.

[Babel_17]

194. Probably will inspire more donations, though the campaign's supporters have already been amazing

Sometimes miracles do happen.

lol at the loose change comment, reminded me of Larry David's impression on SNL.

[RoccoR5955]

203. My question is

Which one of these states will Billy Ray Joe Bob Clinton show up in to do some more electioneering?
If he got away with it in Mass, he will definitely try to get away with it elsewhere.

[Lorien]

206. He leads in pretty much every State a Dem can win in a general election

A vote for Bernie is a vote for a Left of Center Democratic President Sanders! A vote for Hillary is a vote for a Fascist Authoritarian egomaniac named President Drumpf, er, "Trump". That should be crystal clear to everyone by now!

[SoapBox]

221. K & R!

Go Bernie!

Go Berners!

[TheFarseer]

227. The wife and I are caucusng for Bernie in NE tomorrow with a 2 year old.

Hopefully our little kiddo will not be too much trouble. Maybe someone will have a bernie sticker for her. She likes stickers.

[LonePirate]

231. Winning states is nice but winning delegates is better and Bernie needs to win a delegate rich state

I understand the need to project some positivity into things; but the reality is he will likely lose ground in the delegate race despite winning three states this weekend.

[Turin_C3PO]

232. I hope he does!

I want this race to stay competitive until the convention. I'll be happy to vote for Hillary in the GE against whichever clown the GOP runs, but I still have faith Bernie can pull this off!

[MaggieD]

233. So what?

He's not going to win the nomination. It's effectively over. It will be totally over by March 15th.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/hillary-clintons-got-this/

[ecstatic]

237. Bernie does well in caucus states

People with a lot of energy and free time show up.

I salute those of you who take part! That's true dedication!

[PatrickforO]

239. And SHOW UP at the polls, because Bernie can still win.

[George II]

246. Since you raised the issue of "Deep South" and "Dixie", I thought it might be useful.....

....for people to see the demographics of the three states voting today the three voting tomorrow or Tuesday (and delegates to be chosen):

Saturday:

Kansas White 83%, Black 5%, Hispanic 10%, Asian 2% (33)
Nebraska White 86%, Black 4%, Hispanic 9%, Asian 1% (26)
Louisiana White 62%, Black 32%, Hispanic 4%, Asian 1% (54)

Sunday:

Maine White 95%, Black 1%, Hispanic 1%, Asian 1% (25)

Tuesday:

Michigan White 78%, Black 14%, Hispanic 4%, Asian 2% (133)
Mississippi White 59%, Black 37%, Hispanic 2%, Asian <1% (36)

[kstewart33]

247. The number of states don't matter. The number of delegates do.

By the end of the day, Clinton's win in Louisiana will negate Bernie's gains.

If the KNM states mattered, she would have campaigned hard there. She didn't.

Winning delegates is all that counts.

[TBF]

248. Go Bernie! nt

[21st Century Poet]

255. Number of delegates?

How many delegates would Sanders get out of those three states?

I'm starting to lose hope for Bernie. The consensus outside Democratic Underground seems to be that he is already done for. I hope not, of course, but I'm starting to feel that we are clutching at straws.

[demwing]

260. hmm?

nah.. not buying it.

[pat_k]

261. k & r (nt)

[George II]

262. You do realize that...

...Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma are conservative Red States and Massachusetts and Virginia are liberal Blue States.

[sabrina 1]

271. Bernie has the progressive, Independent, Feminist, gaining rapidly in the progressive minority

vote while Hillary only has the Third Way vote.

She will win the Blue Dog dems, so few of them left anyhow as progressive Dems threw them out in the last two mid terms.

Bernie is going to win this election.