Grand Prize of the weekend goes to Hillary

[itsrobert]

Splitting delegates is not enough for Bernie.

MATH!

[Iliyah]

1. Arithmetic

[basselope]

2. 3>1

And with NY and CA on the horizon and Bernie ahead in both.. Clinton's tiny lead ain't gonna hold up.

[Skid Rogue]

4. I think I missed some polls... honestly.

Link please.

[grossproffit]

5. I keep seeing this posted but never a link to back it up.

[Skid Rogue]

15. Well, let's just ask politely for the link. That soundn't be a problem.

[Number23]

21. You can ask politely or not

the answer is and apparently always will be... absolutely nothing.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511412747#post16

Some people apparently believe that if they just keep tying "Sanders is ahead in NY and CA" that automatically turns it into gospel.

[Hortensis]

30. Here: THIS explains how Bernie can win a state and "lose" it anyway.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1418800

Basically, Bernie is seriously behind and has to catch up. Last I heard he needed to take an average about 62% of the remaining states delegates to get the magic number of delegates at the end. Each time he "won" a state with less than that, the average needed to catch up rose for the remaining states.

After yesterday, that 62% average number of delegates Bernie must win in the remaining states has now risen, to what I haven't heard yet, but he lost further ground.

[basselope]

7. Been posted in this forum

Bernie is ahead in NY and CA.

[Skid Rogue]

11. Not being mean to my fellow Democrats...

I believe you if you say those numbers are out there. I'd like to study them, too. Link please.

[basselope]

14. It was posted in the forums 2 or 3 days ago with links.

I didn't save the links, but it contained polls from most of the remaining states.

[Motown_Johnny]

17. Then you should bookmark the threads so you can find them later.

This happens a lot here.

If you can't find them, then why should the people you are trying to convince go out and try to find them?


P.S. I would like to see them too.

[basselope]

20. It might be in the Bernie group.

NY was +1 and CA was +2 or 3

I just read it and found it interesting.

[LonePirate]

51. Neither poll is present on RCP

CA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

NY: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

[basselope]

53. Didn't say it was on there.

[LonePirate]

55. Their absence begs the credibility of those polls.

[basselope]

58. Most polls don't appear there.

They take some.. ignore others.

[Skid Rogue]

19. Okay. I'll just have to Google.

But if you fine fellows are selling these polls, you need to be able to link to them. You wouldn't want people to think you're not being honest.

[Sancho]

28. Hillary is ahead in California...

Field 12/16 - 1/3 329 LV 5.6 46 35 1 Clinton +11
LA Times/USC 8/29 - 9/8 819 RV 3.6 39 23 1 Clinton +16

[riversedge]

34. 1+

[basselope]

35. VERY old

[Sancho]

26. Hillary is way ahead in NY...

Siena 1/31 - 2/3 434 RV 5.6 55 34 Clinton +21
Quinnipiac 5/28 - 6/1 508 RV 4.4 55 15 Clinton +40

[itsrobert]

6. Reality check. California is one of those diverse states

AA and Hispanics will be going heavy for Clinton.

[basselope]

8. Bernie wins the Latino vote.

California is an easy win for Bernie by 10 or more points.

[itsrobert]

9. Oh my gawd

Hillary will win Hispanics by 40 percent.

[basselope]

16. So she will do the opposite of every other southwest state???

[itsrobert]

18. Texas and Nevada is the only Southwest states that voted

Hillary won Texas with 70 percent of the hispanic vote.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/adriancarrasquillo/texas-colorado-latino-clinton-sanders#.pgXoKEWAW6

In Nevada, despite the small sample size exit poll, the analysis vetted out Clinton won in hispanic communities by large margins.

[Number23]

22. Damn, pesky assed facts!

Sanders has not won one state with a significant minority population.

Among states that don't have significant minority populations, Sanders has still lost the minority vote in all of them.

[basselope]

36. incorrect

Bernie won hispanic vote in both Nevada and Colorado.

He wins CA in a walkaway.

[Lizzie Poppet]

59. I have a hard time considering CA a "southwest state."

California's kind of a thing-unto-itself. Not much like the other West Coast states. Not much like the other Southwest states, either. The far northern part (call it Chico on up?) is really part of my region, Cascadia. Beyond that, it's almost like a different country.

[basselope]

61. Well.. we are like 3 states

But as far as the Hispanic vote goes, I expect them to be much closer to how Nevada and Colorado voted than Texas.

[Sancho]

29. So far, Hillary is winning the Latino vote...

and also winning the Latino polls.

Chances are the primary will be mathematically over before California, but Hillary is ahead in the available polls now.

[basselope]

37. no

[Sancho]

38. It's not an opinion - it's a fact

http://huelladigital.univisionnoticias.com/the-latin-vote/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/VOTO-HISPANO-BENDIXENAMANDI.pdf

Hillary is way ahead...

[basselope]

40. June = Opinion

[Sancho]

45. Exit polls show the same thing...

Here in Florida, most of us have voted by mail.

Nothing has changed from the best survey by the hispanics of their own constituents.

It's simply not true that Bernie is winning with hispanics. Hillary is easily winning with hispanics and minority.

[basselope]

46. Exit polls show Bernie winning with Hispanics in Nevada and Colorado

http://www.counterpunch.org/2016/02/23/why-bernie-sanders-really-did-win-nevadas-hispanic-vote/


http://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/texas-latinos-back-clinton-sanders-takes-hispanic-counties-colorado-n530371

You will find CA much more in line with Nevada and Colorado over TX. TX is a world unto itself.

[Sancho]

47. "Bernie Sanders won Colorado, and though there was no exit polling, "

Your link...when there is actual polling of hispanics, Hillary wins...

"Exit polling of a slice of Latinos who voted showed Clinton won 70 percent of those Latinos, and 28 percent voted for Sanders."

You do understand that the actual poll from Colorado was one that I sent you.

Also, there are more people in my county here in Fl than in the state of Colorado...

CA won't matter - it will be over by then. Regardless, it will go to Hillary, and hispanics will be heavily in favor of Hillary.

[basselope]

48. No.

He won the Laitno vote in BOTH Nevada and Colorado, as the links show.

He is also winning it in other states as well. Texas was an anomaly.

CA will matter.

But, you're a Clintonite, so you are for President Trump.

[Sancho]

49. You are wrong...read your own links....

Bernie will not win the Primary. He certainly cannot win a GE.

[basselope]

54. He is the only one who can beat Trump.

Lord knows Clinton doesn't have a chance.

With Kasich as his VP and the youth not turning out.. how on earth does she plan to win???

Obama NEEDED the young vote to win.

She won't get it.

[Sancho]

56. Wow...so much wrong...

Kasich won't be a VP, and Trump won't be President.

The young never vote in large numbers.

One possible VP for Hillary is Castro.

BTW:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/upshot/why-clinton-not-sanders-probably-won-the-hispanic-vote-in-nevada.html?_r=0

[basselope]

57. So much wrong.

The NYT article was completely debunked by the very link I gave you.

The YOUNG were the reason Obama won in 2008 http://www.usnews.com/news/campaign-2008/articles/2008/11/06/young-voters-powered-obamas-victory-while-shrugging-off-slacker-image

They ain't showing up for Clinton.

She loses to the Trump/Kasich ticket.

So, to all the Clintonites... we have you to thank for President Trump.

[Sancho]

60. No...wrong again...

And on top of that, it's much harder to register or present ID now than in 2008.

[basselope]

62. Your chart is wrong.

And voter ID laws impact the elderly MUCH MORE than the Youth.

Voter turnout was 54.5% in 2008
AND
They made up a larger % of the voters than those older voters in 2008.

"They made up a higher proportion of the electorate—18 percent—than the 65-and-older age category, which accounted for 16 percent."

Please read facts b4 posting in the future.

[DrDan]

13. oh gosh - and here I thought Florida might count

[angstlessk]

25. The weekend is not over..Maine is tomorrow - Sunday

71% Bernie Sanders 29% Hillary Clinton

Link: https://www.isidewith.com/2016-democratic-primary-poll/801555698/9333319

With a total of 25 delegates

[DCBob]

31. Delegates?

[Codeine]

39. Bernie's ahead in NY?

Linky?

[basselope]

41. Its been posted on DU.

[Codeine]

42. Then. . . link to it?

[basselope]

43. Didn't bookmark it.

It had a list of all the remaining states and polls. Bernie was up by 1 in new and 2 or 3 in CA.

[Codeine]

44. If there was any legit polling placing Sanders up in CA it would be

posted all over the board. I'm doubtful.

[Codeine]

63. Ahem.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511434551

Bernie well and truly behind in NY. Your post is full of it.

[reformist2]

3. So obnoxious... it's as if you guys actually want to repel voters!

[Gwhittey]

12. See they are falling into M$M

trap. IF look at every news site she is at like 1,066 vs Sanders 432. They are not getting clue that SD are what is making that lead. If it comes down to that she will win the Nom, but lose the GE in a landslide.

[artislife]

10. You don't get it...we are going to put her through the paces

We are not giving up. All the way to convention. The country needs to see that this is no walk in the park. People in states that may actually vote blue are going mostly Bernie's way.

[COLGATE4]

23. Who is this "we" you speak of? nt

[artislife]

24. Most of the Bernie supporters. We are not ready to hand it over. nt

[jfern]

27. Remember the Maine!

[Cobalt Violet]

32. nope you are dead wrong

but maybe if you keep telling yourself that you might convince yourself.

[longship]

33. Here is what that is:

[MaggieD]

50. Yep

[Buzz Clik]

52. Easy, tiger.

We have people in serious denial here. They are a bit on edge.