Latest 538 predictions for Bernie/Hillary (released an hour ago)

[kstewart33]

Chance of winning (polls plus):

Michigan: Hillary 99%; Bernie 1%.

Mississippi: Hillary 99%; Bernie 1%.

Florida: Hillary 99%; Bernie 1%.

Illinois: Hillary 99%; Bernie 1%.

North Carolina: Hillary 95%; Bernie 5%.

Ohio: Hillary 93%; Bernie 7%.

[link:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/|

[still_one]

1. Heads exploding all over the place, and if we believe some of the threads, tens of thousands of

"so-called" democrats will be getting ready to leave the party because of that.

[Cali_Democrat]

7. Those threads aren't to be believed, they're to be laughed at. nt

[still_one]

10. I know what it is, and excuse the crudeness, but it's called "mind f*king".

[Orsino]

14. Gloat threads ill become us. n/t

[Fla Dem]

29. Totally agree. If they're that fickle, let them go. nt

[BlueMTexpat]

37. +1! eom

[inchhigh]

46. I'll not leave the Party

Its been hijacked by a bunch of corporate apologists. I will fight to the end to restore it to is former place as the advocate of working people.

But I will not vote for another 3rd way Republicrat.

It's our party and somebody's gonna have to leave but it sure ain't gonna be me.

[PyaarRevolution]

39. Check my "March On Washington" thread.

Will you come to march on Washington one or two weeks after Hillary or Bernie's inauguration to make sure they follow through on their agenda?
I don't want to hear excuses either. I'm putting out a call to EVERYONE here, Hillary or Bernie fan, especially the Hillary fans. If you expect us to follow through on voting for Hillary if she gets the nomination you should also follow through on what I'm trying to organize so we can make sure the issues that affect us all as Americans are addressed by her. I will give you a heads up that tuition free college and Medicare for all is on the agenda as I expect nothing less.
I will call out you, Mineral and others if you're wishywashy on this as we all need this.

[jmowreader]

26. I was going to reply in that thread, but trashed it instead

Sorry about the inadvertent rhyme...reality is, people who live in states with closed primaries register, vote and leave all the time. There's nothing new about it. But what those clueless people are saying is, if we do not hand the Democratic nomination to the guy who isn't a Democrat so he can lose to Donald Trump then the voters who aren't Democrats either, and who foisted George W. Bush on us by splitting the Democratic vote, will all run away screaming.

Sorry guys, not this time.

[still_one]

28. Kick & REC

[BlueMTexpat]

38. Well said.

[AgingAmerican]

30. Cuz Hillary doesn't need those 'so called' Democrats!

[itsrobert]

2. Those states don't count

[still_one]

4. That is because they only represent the southern part of the states

[Beacool]

16. LOL!!!

You made me laugh.

[SidDithers]

3. DU rec...nt

Sid

[DURHAM D]

5. Don't forget that Maine should be a win for BS today. nt

[Beacool]

17. Yes, he'll do well in ME.

[revmclaren]

6. Kick and Rec

[Hiraeth]

8. 5+3=8

[randome]

9. So...recounts all around then?

[hr][font color="blue"][center]“If you're not committed to anything, you're just taking up space.”
Gregory Peck, Mirage (1965)[/center][/font][hr]

[One of the 99]

11. The only poll that counts

is the one on election day.

[forest444]

40. Exactly.

I don't doubt the 538 analysis (although Bernie might pull an upset here and there). The problem is that Hillary repels independents, ocassionals, and undecideds - as well as the 2 million or so GOP voters that would turn up to vote (when they otherwise would not) just because they know her name's on the ballot.

Bernie would not have that problem, or at least not nearly to the extent she does.

In short, Hillary's practically unelectable. Trump (or Cruz) would have to make an awful lot of mistakes to trump the baked-in advantage they have over her on that score alone - to say nothing if the e-mail scandal snowballs the way Bitchy Mitchy is trying to cause it to, or if any other major Hillary scandals erupt before Election Day (bribery and such).

[One of the 99]

55. A lot of polls undersample

young voters, who will turn out for Bernie.

[forest444]

56. Your words to God's ear.

Or it's goodbye Ohio and Pennsylvania (Florida as well, except that I fully expect Governor E.T. Phone Home to steal Florida for the GOP anyway).

Interesting times, these.

[One of the 99]

59. See I told you!

[forest444]

60. You certainly did!

[MattSh]

12. Hey, 538 says it's true, so...

let's just skip the election and go anoint HRH.

Elections are so 20th century anyway...

[kstewart33]

13. 538 is the best prediction group on and off the web.

Based on their track record.

But....the last 4 races are more than a week away. So those percentages may change.

[NastyRiffraff]

20. Who's talking about anointing?

We're talking about the likelihood of winning. You know, in elections.

[wildeyed]

25. What are you on about?

We are discussing a polling aggregate site. And it is just odds of winning, not even a points spread forecast. Nobody suggests that we not have the election, so stop putting words in other people's mouth. Sorry if the numbers make you feel a sad, but that is on you.

[Beacool]

15. Yep, not much has changed in their predictions for these states.

It'll be a good two weeks for Hillary.

[Metric System]

18. RED STATES! RED STATES EVERYWHERE!!!!!!!

[Persondem]

19. Always good to have 538 picking your team. K & R nt

[Go Vols]

21. or not

What We Got Wrong In Our 2015 U.K. General Election Model

No calculations are necessary to see that we missed badly in our forecast of the U.K. election.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/

[Persondem]

23. Pfffft UK ... in 2012 in the USA 538 was 51 for 51.

"At the end of that day, after the ballots had been counted, the 538 model had correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia"

from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight#Recognition_and_awards

You can damn well bet that if Sanders was favored to win all those primaries and all those delegates Sanders fans would be singing Nate Silver's praises and there would 12-15 posts on DU reflecting that.

[MaggieD]

22. Yep, it will be another bad day for Bernie

And a happy day for Team Clinton. Looking forward to it!

[Plucketeer]

45. As well as

a SAD, SAD day for the minions she pretends to care about.

[firebrand80]

24. When does that favorible map for Bernie start? nt

[Trust Buster]

27. Don't bother me with those there southern states. Can't you see I'm trying to concentrate ?

[mcar]

31. Wow!

[LonePirate]

32. That leaves CA, MD, NJ, NY, PA, WA and WI as the only large states remaining.

[lunamagica]

33. YAY!!!!! WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Fla Dem]

34. I suspect there will be lots of nasty things said about HRC and threats made, "I'm leaving

the Democratic party", You're all spineless, stuck in the mud, Hillary lovers." " It'll be a dark day in hell before I vote for HER!"

When IT (Hillary getting her insurmountable lead) happens, let's celebrate with joy and satisfaction and pay no attention to those who will be snarling and gnashing their teeth. There are many other Bernie supporters who will graciously congratulate us and will say "I will vote for her, no Republican can retake the WH." Those are our true DU compatriots whom we have know for so long.

But until then let's cheer on our girl!

[Sancho]

35. 538 has been pretty accurate so far...

[DesertRat]

36. k&r

[Tiggeroshii]

43. If he can get half the delegates and close in a long t of those states, he's doing well.

MA and IA were a 93% or so chance too for hillary and they barely counts as a win, even though she did win.

[Jitter65]

44. Really? How accurate has this pollster been lately? nt

[madfloridian]

47. This is getting to be 1984ish. It's just scary.

[SidDithers]

48. 538 has Bernie's target on Tuesday, from MI and MS, as 80 delegates...

I think that's exceedingly optimistic.

Sid

[Jon Ace]

57. He'd need two really close margins to reach that.

Optimistic, indeed.

[dschmott]

49. Are you sure these aren't old stats copied from the odds she had on beating Barack in 2008?

Or maybe the public opinion polls on going to war in Iraq that she used to cast her vote for war in Iraq?

Or the odds that government decision making will be influenced by the Wall street and other deep pockets funding campaigns.

Thanks for the statistical info. I really am interested in how people will base their decision to vote. Should Presidential Elections should be based on principals (both your own and the candidate/system you support). Or is society best served by commercial advertisement?

I going choose to vote for

An end to the corrupt political system that benefits corporate sponsors over the best ideas and ideals
A preference for the transparent view of the truth

For a complete list of issues please see https://berniesanders.com/issues/
A single payer health care system
Addressing income and wealth inequality
Real family values
Real Racial/LGBT equality
Diplomacy over war


Go Bernie

[Nanjeanne]

50. Well we might as well as stay home now that 538 has spoken!

[Buzz Clik]

51. Okay.

[bernie_FTW]

52. those are just probability numbers. I am keeping the faith all the way to the convention

[Attorney in Texas]

54. Looking at the primary predictions from 538, it's safe to say Trump and Cruz are finished! Links:

Whenever someone cites 538 as a reason to think the Sanders campaign is doomed, that's a good time to review the collected genius and wisdom of 538:

Let’s Be Serious About Ted Cruz From The Start: He’s Too Extreme And Too Disliked To Win

Ted Cruz Has A Huge Math Problem

The Glass-Half-Empty Case Against Ted Cruz

Ted Cruz Is Just Like Reagan In 1980, Except People Actually Liked Reagan

Ted Cruz’s General Election Strategy Is Wishful Thinking

Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom

Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates

Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News

Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner!

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate

[Attorney in Texas]

58. 538 Knocks Another One Out of The Park!