Clinton Opens Up Huge Lead in Michigan (66-29)
EAST LANSING, Michigan --- In a poll conducted Sunday afternoon and evening before the start
of their CNN debate in Flint, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has opened up a huge lead
over Vermont U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders among Democratic Party Presidential Primary voters
in Michigan. Clinton leads Sanders 66%-29%, up from 55%-37% on Thursday night. Only 6% of
the voters remain undecided.
The IVR (Interactive Voice Response) automated survey of 475 likely March 2016 Michigan
Democratic Presidential Primary voters was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications
Sunday afternoon and evening, March 6, 2016. The poll has a Margin of Error of + or – 4.5% at
the 95% level of confidence.
“Hillary Clinton (66%), fueled by strong support from women and African-Americans, has a
tremendous lead over Bernie Sanders (29%), Clinton is seems poised to win convincingly in
Michigan on Tuesday. She came into the state earlier than Sanders and she really made the
Flint water crisis her issue, adding to her already strong support among African-Americans, who
could make up a quarter of all voters,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research &
Communications said
Click on the link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
= new reply since forum marked as read
What I find interesting and what makes Bernie's LT outlook look poor, are the totals of pledged delegates on versus the target goals so far.
Even though Clinton has missed her target goals in OK, CO and the three most recent caucus states, Clinton's total delegate count far exceeds the target total. She has 677 pledged delegates, thus 119 over target. Sanders has 448 pledged delegates and is 81 under target.
Based on Bernie's target goals as shown in the chart, as well as the current polls for MI, MS, FL, IL, MO, NC and OH, he will likely fall further behind even if the races tighten up. Even if he meets those targets in every case, which looks highly unlikely, he will still be behind Hillary by the same margin as he is today.
Hillary's target goals seem to have factored in potential losses in AZ, ID, UT, AK, HI, WA, WI, WY, NY, CT, PA, RI, IN, KY, WV, OR, MT, NM, ND and SD as a worst case scenario already. In some of these states, however, Hillary is favored to win and thus should exceed her target goals - in some cases substantially. If so, Bernie will not make his goals in those states and is not likely to get additional delegates from Hillary's losses in states where he wins, where she is still likely to make her target goals despite the losses.
I did not include states where Hillay's target goals factor in a win for her. In at least some of those states, she is even likely to win by significant margins and exceed her target goals.
While I am not ready to say, "Stick a fork ...." just yet, I really don't see the situation improving for Bernie so as to lead to a GE nomination.
