New Michigan State University Poll: Hillary 52, Bernie 47

[HerbChestnut]

http://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2016/trump-leads-gop-field-in-michigan-democratic-race-close/?utm_campaign=media-pitch&utm_medium=email

A bit different than those robo polls floating around here here, eh?

[dragonfly301]

1. C'mon Bernie surge!

I wish MSU wasn't on spring break this week.

[HerbChestnut]

4. That's okay.

I have a couple of friends who come from Michigan and apparently MI colleges tend to be mostly in state students, which means they'll still be around to vote in their home towns most likely.

[dragonfly301]

6. +1 eom

[Cassiopeia]

28. It's also better they vote in their home towns

than be concentrated in a single district.

[laruemtt]

2. He's closing the "gap" fast - go Bernie!!!

[CoffeeCat]

3. Both the Clinton camp and the Bernie camp have said that the race has tightened

It's amazing that Bernie is able to close 20-point gaps like this!

He campaigns in a state, people get to know him and hear his message--and it's fabulous what happens.

She sinks and he gains significantly.

[kath]

5. Woot! Go, Bernie, Go!!

[NowSam]

7. This is encouraging

and very possible to overcome - even if one side cheats.

[Robbins]

10. well

tougher to fix primary than caucus although clintons did it In Mass.

I would be thrilled with a 52 to 47 clinton win In michigan because again outside the south he did better than expected.

[Barack_America]

8. Wow!

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Hmm I take polls with salt

But this is an observation. Trends used to stay more predictable in polls. These days the last ones are closer. Which is one reason I no longer take them at face value.

So will the predictive markets also be when wrong? They predicted a bernie win in Maine. Not the kind of win. And in my mind that explains the irritation in Clinton's body demeanor yesterday. They got analytics and I predict they are less rosy.

[Lizzie Poppet]

11. But...but...Hillmentum!

I'm not sure Bernie has enough time to make Michigan Democrats come to their senses in sufficient quantity for him to win, but at least the proportional delegate count will be better (even considering the corrupt superdelegate system will greatly favor Her Anointed Highness).

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. I asked yesterday if it was changing

Also this explains the grumpiness on her part. I know both are tired. Both have access to pretty sophisticated internal polls too

[Lizzie Poppet]

24. Very interesting!

And yes...I can't imagine how grueling, mentally and physically, the campaign must be. Moreover, neither candidate is exactly a spring chicken. I'm younger, quite fit, and I get pretty pissy just on a single long(ish) plane flight. Multiple flights in compressed time periods, massive pressure not to arse up pretty much anything you say or do, speech-making, palm-pressing, etc...? Yeesh.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. They also tend to be better than what is released

For public and trend ahead of public curves. Yup, sometimes they are dead wrong too..just ask President Romney.

[vdogg]

13. 6.1% MOE out of 262 Democrats?

The cell phone and landline telephone survey interviewed 838 Michigan adults. The margin of error is 3.4 percent for the full survey, 5.8 percent among 290 likely Republican voters and 6.1 percent among 262 likely Democratic voters.

I smell outlier.

[Kalidurga]

14. This is good

I have been hearing about some kind of Hillary landslide there for months. I don't have a whole lot of hope even with this poll. I grew up there.

[BernieforPres2016]

15. NBC/WSJ had it 57-40 in a new poll yesterday

That's quite a swing.

[vdogg]

17. There was another one conducted yesterday

That has her up 66-29. This one is a major outlier.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

[gollygee]

16. It will be interesting to see what happens

Most of the Democrats I know are Bernie supporters.

[thereismore]

18. OK, that's what I'm talking about. Her only direction is DOWN, always DOWN.

Bernie can get a good result in MI.

[book_worm]

19. kind of an old poll compared to the more recent ones

even the ones which are not robos...

The survey, in the field from Jan. 25 to March 3,


Not sure I trust college polls anyway--they are usually not very dependable. But if this gives you guys some hope compared to the several other polls showing HRC well ahead--go at it.

[vdogg]

20. This one's not up there yet.

But all the more recent polls show Hillary winning by substantial margins.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

Edit: Actually, it is. Poll is so old it's at the bottom of the page and not rated.

[KPN]

21. Key line in the story ...

"the survey (i.e., numbers/percents) ... changed substantially as voters recognized candidates other than Clinton and Trump after early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire." Bernie's been surging and is within the survey's margin of error.

[vdogg]

22. Survey ended March 3rd

More recent polling shows Hillary's lead widening.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/

[Omaha Steve]

26. The thing about some polls right before election day

[Duval]

23. He's catching up! nt

[Godhumor]

25. Ugh, I hate doing this in pro-Sanders polls but

The methodology is horrendous in this poll. Absolutely horrendous.

And before anyone asks, it starts with having a sampling period opened for well over a month...that, that is just not good polling.

[dana_b]

29. hmm.. you could be right there

I don't know a lot about how accurate polling is done. For instance, with tens of thousands of people voting, what is a good sample? Also since this was from a university, did they call people in the community? Go to shopping malls? Where did they converse with people? Also they said that "Knowledge of the Sanders and Rubio candidacies grew". So I would think that the numbers for both of those candidates in particular would change from the end of January until now.

It will be really interesting to see how it ends up after the primary.

[RiverNoord]

39. When evaluating polls, the worst thing to do is blindly accept results you like.

We could use a lot more such evaluations when we consider information suggesting good news for Bernie.

Don't get me wrong - I'm all-in for Bernie, but we've got people celebrating the rough equivalent of a leaf falling off a tree and landing on the Bernie side.

On DU, that just gives fodder to some Clinton supporters' claims that we're fools and ignoring reality. And then the 'I know you are but what am I' nonsense takes over...

[Stallion]

30. Note 538 Giving Poll Little Credibility-Conducted Over 40 days

and a small Democratic number of polled citizens. 538.com looks like it gave poll .0.00 consideration

[ALBliberal]

31. Yowza!!!

[Betty Karlson]

32. Woopsie! There goes another brock lie: right out of the window.

So... where are the goalposts going to move this time?

[Orange Butterfly]

33. Open primary's and cacuses favor Bernie

I have noticed he does well when given the time for his campaign to be heard. When a state has closed voting the %'s are high for HRC who has name recognition.

If only this country actually had fair and open voting.

[Bread and Circus]

34. Wow...that is very goddam close. I live in Michigan. Everyone I know is going for Bernie.

I see a few Bernie signs a few Trump signs but NO Hillary Clinton signs.

I think people are kind of ashamed to outwardly support Clinton.

[nadinbrzezinski]

38. That was the case with Bush too

Hmmm interesting observation

[Bread and Circus]

35. Kicked and Rec'd. I gave Bernie another $50.00 yesterday!!

[RoccoR5955]

36. Wait and see.

Billy Ray Joe Bob Clinton will show up blocking another polling site with his Bullfeces horn.

[AzDar]

37. Go, Bernie GO!!

[PonyUp]

40. Bill is polishing up his bullhorn for the ready. n/t