2012 Election Map and Current Primary Map

[tomm2thumbs]

(Bernie in green, Clinton in yellow)


Seems like Bernie, even with razor-thin Iowa shown in yellow, is doing pretty good in a good number of states that will likely prove important to Democrats in the General Election. Especially since Obama's Democratic strengths still weren't enough to pull off the South in '12.

Looking good!!!!

[MineralMan]

1. Comparing a General Election map with a Democratic Primary map

is like comparing cherries to rutabagas. Now, I like both of those foods, but I eat them at different times. Same thing with primary elections and general elections.

This comparison is meaningless.

[tomm2thumbs]

2. only meaningless if you cite Hillary's strengths in the south amount to General Election wins there

[MineralMan]

3. Well, see, the same thing applies if you're

citing wins in Kansas and Nebraska. Again, primary elections in the Democratic primary are a completely different thing that nationwide presidential elections. There's no valid way to compare the two, since Democrats will not win in every state that participates in the primaries.

It's just not a comparison that is meaningful in any way, really.

[tomm2thumbs]

4. I'm interested to see how the numbers in Florida compare R to D actually

and some of the other states that were carried by Obama in 2012

but definitely will be a different map in the fall, however it plays out

[MineralMan]

5. That cluster of states in the Northeast will

vote Democratic in the general, regardless of who our nominee is. Some of the states Sanders is winning in the midwest will vote for the republican in November.

In primaries, voters from both parties are participants in choosing their party's nominee. How their state will vote in the general election is irrelevant. I know that pisses some people off, but that's how we do things.

There's simply no valid way to compare a primary map for this year with a general election map from a previous year's election. The two things are not even close to being similar, really.

The thing to watch during this Democratic Primary is the delegate count. Nothing else matters, really.

[tomm2thumbs]

6. although I remember Hillary saying there were a lot of factors to examine

"I think it's also important to look where the delegates came from, how many people actually elected those delegates, what the kind of outcomes were, who has a bigger base to build an electoral majority on."

her words, not mine

[MineralMan]

7. The comparison, however, is still an invalid one.

It's just not meaningful to what is happening now.

[tomm2thumbs]

8. it is valid according to Hillary

it was the reason Hillary held on till June so that everyone had a chance to vote, so I respect her opinion on its relevance - she's a pro at this stuff