Repugnants: Calculations within Calculations
The Republican Primaries have become an exquisite exercise in game theory. I hope it continues right up through their convention.
Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich are locked in a three way game of chicken, each believing that that if he is the only one standing against Trump, he can win. So none of them has an incentive to swerve.
But if none will get out, their best option is to cooperate against Trump -- maybe leaving Ohio to Kasich, Florida to Rubio. But here they face a three way prisoner's dilemma. Cruz knows that the party honchos loath him nearly as much as they loath Trump and that he'd be hard pressed to emerge victorious for that reason alone out of a contested convention. So he has less reason than either Kasich or Rubio to want to get to a contested convention and so more reason to defect. That's why he's trying to drive Rubio out in advance, by playing hard in Florida. But if Cruz pushes too hard that would appear to increases the odds of Trump taking Florida. And that decreases Cruz's chances in a on on one against Trump.
What we have here are calculations within calculations. Where it comes out, is anybody's guess. I'm just hoping chaos reigns, partly for the fun of seeing it work itself through, but more because the Republicans will likely emerge a broken, battered party as a consequence.
Go Chaos!