How the were the Michigan polls THAT FREAKING WRONG?

[Ken Burch]

Does this make sense to anyone else?

[johnnyrocket]

1. Not at all. Something is screwy somewhere.

H was +18 on B.

This is the biggest polling upset *EVER*

[anotherproletariat]

26. The reason that the Hillary campaign never sounded too confident, is that their internal polls

showed it being this tight. Luckily the delegates are given proportionally. So Bernie will get bragging rights, but overall the Hillary delegate count will go up tonight compared to his.

[Lorien]

2. Only when one considers that the MSM works for the establishment

and they want to manipulate perceptions to kill Bernie's momentum.

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. Toss it over the wall, and ask them.

This was gonna be a cakewalk.

[Roland99]

4. She beat Obama there in 2008

[demmiblue]

10. Obama wasn't on the ballot. n/t

[Roland99]

17. That explains that.

[jeff47]

11. Obama wasn't on the MI ballot in 2008.

In 2008, MI and FL moved their primaries to earlier than the DNC allows. That caused the DNC to strip both states of their delegates. The DNC requested that the candidates remove their names from the ballots in those states.

Obama did. Clinton didn't quite manage to get around to it.

So yes, Clinton won....as the only one on the ballot.

(MI and FL got half their delegates back in a late-in-the-primary deal, when their delegates were not enough to swing the election)

[demmiblue]

20. She wasn't the only one on the ballot.

Just an FYI.

[jeff47]

23. Ok, only candidate with a significant showing

Kucinich, Dodd and Gravel each didn't break 10%.

[karynnj]

12. Michigan was not a real in 2008. The DNC said it would not count their results and asked them not to

compete. John Edwards announced he would comply with that and not file to be on the ballot - Obama followed suit. Only HRC was on the ballot.

[Adrahil]

5. Need to wait and see....

Silver remarked that it would be the biggest poll miss in modern primary history.... Or close to it. We'll have to see how it shakes out.

Right now the results are looking much closer to Silver's demographic model than the polls.

[WillyT]

6. My Theory... It's Like The Wall Street Ratings Agencies... They Do It For Profit...

[dinkytron]

7. Yeah how the were the Mich. Pols that freaking wrong?!!!!!

[DemRace]

8. What other polls are wrong? This could get interesting.

[Juicy_Bellows]

9. A dash of likely Democratic voters, a twist of land lines and a big dose of MSM horseshit?

That's my take anyway.

[Oilwellian]

34. Yes, I've thought the same

Over-polling of Democrats and under-polling the independents. He won their vote quite handsomely. Also, the youth vote isn't being counted in these polls and they vote overwhelmingly for Bernie. I'm so glad they can now see that the polls are bogus without their being counted, and to get out there and vote!

[AzDar]

37. Ayup.

[longship]

13. Well, I haven't had a land line for years!

And my cell phone often did not work well at home. Now it does okay, but I never get called by pollsters when my land line in CA would be called regularly.

I think that is the explanation of why polls stopped working. They are no longer polling the public.

[marions ghost]

31. Yeah they are polling only people with land lines...

--that sounds like it could have something to do with this all right.

[Oilwellian]

35. In the open primaries...

you also have to have a good sampling of the Independents. Bernie won their vote handsomely and I think that was underestimated as well.

[marions ghost]

36. yeah those Independents will turn on ya

[demmiblue]

14. We don't know what the final outcome will be.

Only a few counties have been fully counted.

[jeff47]

16. Polls showed a 20 to 30 point win for Clinton.

Instead, it's going to be single-digits no matter which candidate wins.

[jeff47]

15. Likely voter models.

The alchemy in polling is coming up with a model of who will actually show up at the polls. That involves a significant amount of guesswork.

Apparently, the likely voter model being used in MI was very wrong.

[gollygee]

21. +1 n/t

[HassleCat]

28. Yes

Open primary states are more difficult. The polls have been missing younger voters, too.

[jillan]

18. They call landlines, I don't know how they could be accurate.

[yardwork]

22. Michigan is an open primary and independents are breaking heavily for Bernie.

Maybe the model didn't take independents into account?

[JimDandy]

24. Not enough polling of cell phones and first time voters.

[Matariki]

25. They didn't poll independents?

[jwirr]

27. The establishment and media are continually underestimating

the millennials.

[Recursion]

29. And *consistently* wrong, too. All of them

I'd assume that means everybody's turnout model was fundamentally broken; I have trouble believing a break this big happened from the debate.

[Cheese Sandwich]

39. This poll had it within the margin of error

http://ippsr.msu.edu/presidential.pdf

Hillary Clinton 51.9%

Bernie Sanders 46.9%

Among likely Dem voters

[CincyDem]

30. Wasn't Granholm soft pedaling this earlier today.

I thought I saw somewhere that she was on CNN (or MSNBC) implying that this would be much closer than the top line poll numbers. Speculation was that the campaign knew something in the internals that had them worried so they were out pre-working the media message, trying to lower expectations.

[Ken Burch]

33. Could be.

I still have no idea where they got the poll that had it as 66%HRC-29%Bernie.

[Oilwellian]

38. Kinda puts 538 to shame, eh?

[CincyDem]

41. GIGO.

Garbage In, Garbage Out.

I think Nate's claim to fame at 538 is aggregating polls data and doing analysis across all the polls. As I recall, other than analyzing the questions, he doesn't have anything to do with how the polls are being run.

I'm not ready to throw him under the bus. lol. I'd much rather have him calling the numbers than Rove and his merry band of election robbers.

[FourScore]

32. BECAUSE THE REVOLUTION IS HAPPENING!!!

He said he wanted to bring all democrats to the polls. If that swould happen, he would win. Michigan had the biggest primary turnout in decades.

It's the beginning of the revolution!!!!!!!

[ScreamingMeemie]

40. Yes. I voted solid Dem throughout my adulthood in MI as an independent.

There were a lot of us.

[brooklynite]

42. Here's a guess: Michigan was an anomoly

It happens.