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Avalux

(35,015 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:16 AM Mar 2016

A quick thought about Bernie's win tonight, before I go to sleep.

538's graph showing Hillary's chance of winning Michigan at 99%, next to a pic of Bernie holding his hands up in victory - - quite a visual, and it's all over social media tonight.

When people try to logically explain how this could have happened - how THE Nate Silver got it so wrong, it just can't be done.

We have witnessed one of those rare delicious moments that will inevitably change things forever and completely defies explanation. The revolutionary impact of this moment will be seen in the days to come as people start to believe that anything is possible.



13 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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nadinbrzezinski

(154,021 posts)
2. This is why this is about PERCEPTION
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:30 AM
Mar 2016

and the new talking point (old) but she got more delegates (which she did), but most voters are not that sophisticated, so the perception will mean voters will start looking at the race anew. I say this as a reporter not a partisan.

I also expect my fellow members of the media to push the delegates (adding supers) hard.

Jarqui

(10,118 posts)
3. Next up on the 15th
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:49 AM
Mar 2016

North Carolina 21.5% Black
Florida 16% Black
Illinois 14.5% Black
Ohio 12.2% Black
Missouri 11.6% Black

Three of those states have a higher % of blacks than Michigan.

Florida is probably impossible - aged population along with above average % of blacks in the south. North Carolina is going to be tough.

After that, only New York, Maryland, Delaware & DC are left and they're in the north - where the split among the blacks seems less severe.

25 states with less black population than Michigan remain.

After the 15th, the playing field in terms of the black vote is going to level off some.

Bernie can close the gap after the 15th. With Michigan falling, this isn't over.

 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
8. Does this mean that Daily Kos has to revise its "only praise Hillary from 03-15" policy?
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:22 AM
Mar 2016

Or is Kos still completely biased, and going ahead with doing the coronation committee's bidding?

pat_k

(9,313 posts)
5. "as people start to believe that anything is possible"
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 03:07 AM
Mar 2016

“It always seems impossible until it’s done.”

– Nelson Mandela


“There is only one thing that makes a dream impossible to achieve: the fear of failure.”
– Paulo Coelho


“It’s kind of fun to do the impossible.”
– Walt Disney


 

Betty Karlson

(7,231 posts)
7. Nate Silver has egg on his face: he'll need to stop coddling corporate interests or go the way
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:20 AM
Mar 2016

- the ignominious way - of Rassmussen: becoming less and less relevant for being unreliable.

Stevepol

(4,234 posts)
9. And personally I think Bernie's win was greater than the numbers.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:23 AM
Mar 2016

The voting machines nowadays are regularly tilted against the anti-corporate candidate, and I don't think this contest was any different. Because of the polls, the tilt was just not big enough this time. Exactly how it's being done is not clear of course, but the statistics are undeniable. Jonathan Simon's CODE RED details the statistics pretty clearly it seems to me, and there are many others around the country like Beth Clarkson who have caught on. If the MA result were to be audited or recounted by hand using the actual paper ballots, I feel certain that lo and behold Bernie won MA as well.

 

litlbilly

(2,227 posts)
12. the polls nate relies on are still old people land lines. that expains it right there.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:26 PM
Mar 2016

to be fair, I will hit retirement age this year I don't feel old tho. I dumped my landline 10 years ago and my laptop is my tv now too. Couldn't be happier

PufPuf23

(8,741 posts)
13. Yesterday was a reset of the Democratic selection of a POTUS nominee.
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 02:28 PM
Mar 2016

Now all things are possible.

Good.

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