Clinton leads Sanders by more than 2 to 1 in Florida, Post-Univision poll finds

[Octafish]

WaPo.

[Art_from_Ark]

1. Didn't she lead him by 2-to-1 in Michigan?

I think I read that somewhere

[CajunBlazer]

3. You obviously haven't noticed that Florida is a closed primary

[Art_from_Ark]

4. What's that got to do with anything?

[Lizzie Poppet]

10. Actually, rather a lot.

Closed primaries favor Hillary (although not by as much as some of her supporters may think). Will they favor her enough to arrest the obvious momentum shift? Yeah, maybe...it's Florida, after all. One must adjust one's expectations...

[merbex]

11. It matters a lot

When it is open, Independents can come in and vote too and that gives a good indication of strength for November.

So far, Bernie Sanders is crushing her in Open Primaries.

That is a red flag if we nominate her in November.

She HAS to win, any candidate to win the Presidency, MUST WIN Independent.

She had proven she cannot.

[Stallion]

16. Clinton Won Democrats in Michigan Last Nite by 16 points

nm

[Octafish]

45. Says a lot about Bernie's appeal to the unaffiliated 40-percent.

There were a number -- large from what I'm hearing -- of DEMs who like both Bernie and Hillary who crossed ballots to vote for Kasich, saying better the not-insane turd than one of the loonies.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

7. So were Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska and Maine

The "open caucus" meme doesn't hold up to reality.

[Octafish]

35. Certainly makes it interesting.

[NWCorona]

21. But have you noticed this bit of news?

"Florida's no party affiliation/independent voters seem to have noticed.

"We are seeing a tremendous volume of political party changes," said Susan Bucher, the Palm Beach County supervisor of elections, who reported a "steady clip of people in all the offices" since the beginning of February. She said the interest "seemed to be stirred by Iowa," which held its presidential caucuses on Feb. 1."

We just don't know which way these people are going yet.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/golf/fl-voter-registration-changes-deadline-20160212-story.html

[AtomicKitten]

24. Great news! I am hopeful. Thank you.

[CajunBlazer]

41. Chances are the are registering as Republicans

So they can vote in the "interesting primary. One thing Bernie has not done is bring more people into the party - participation is way up in the Republican primaries and caucuses and down in the Democratic contests.

[TM99]

39. Except so many of you are getting something very very

wrong here.

Yes, independents can not show up on the day of the election and vote in either party primary in a closed state.

But they can register for either party in the months prior. This is happening in many of these so-called closed primary states. How do we know? Because the number of registered Democratic voters has increased from 23% late last fall to 30% at the end of February.

We are joining the Democratic Party specifically so we can vote for Sanders. Ignoring this reality is going to harm the party in the fall if they don't pay attention to these numbers, the previous numbers, voter turnouts in 'blue' and 'red' states, and the number of independents and long-time registered Democrats who will leave the party if Clinton gets the nom.

[CajunBlazer]

42. Chances are the are registering as Republicans

So they can vote in the "interesting primary. One thing Bernie has not done is bring more people into the party - participation is way up in the Republican primaries and caucuses and down in the Democratic contests.

[TM99]

46. That is a gross and very wrong assumptions.

The stats from Michigan alone disprove this.

Wake up y'all.

[CajunBlazer]

49. You are parcing the facts

It interesting that you only mentioned the Michigan primary. It is a fact it is the only Democratic primary to date that drew more voters than 2008. Only the one caucus drew more voters and that state didn't have a caucus in 2008. Overall turnout for Democratic primaries and caucuses is down 30% from that of 2008. Where is the enthusiasm and new voters across the country that Bernie Sanders was supposed to bring to the Democratic Party?

[TM99]

50. I am parsing the facts?

You throw out some comment that independents are for Trump, and I am parsing the facts?

Y'all are in rare form tonight!

[CajunBlazer]

57. I've notice that the tactic most often used on DU...

.... when a poster can't figure out how to effectively counter someone else's post is to attempt to laugh it it off to cover the fact that they can't come up with something substantive to say.

The fact is that the Republican turnout in almost everyone of their primaries and caucuses was much higher than the turnout in 2008 and 2012. I contribute that only to those who back Trump, but also as much to those who would do anything to stop Trump. It is also a fact that, except for Michigan primary and caucus, the Democratic turnout is down 30%.

I am sorry you can't deal with the facts.

[TM99]

58. The fact that Republican turnout is higher

has nothing to do with your claim that independents are voting for Republicans. It is cyclical and they are turing out in large numbers to take back the White House.

I am laughing at you because you are constructing an argument based on an assumption that does not match the facts.

[CajunBlazer]

60. Oh my,

Where is the emoticon that rolls his eyes and shakes his head when you need it?

[TM99]

62. I thought emoticons

were the last resort of someone with no counter-argument?

[timmymoff]

61. You haven't noticed the media blackout of Sanders?

Up until he won a few he wasn't getting any airtime.. now he is, finally. A revolution doesn't
happen overnight and Bernie will be looking forward to all the Hillary supporters joining in registering new progressive voters that Hillary doesn't seem to attract. If you want to have a future as a party you need to welcome the new people not push them away. She inspires few with her "can't do" attitude. She doesn't inspire those who left the party (mainly due to third way policies) to remain if she is the candidate. Her untrustworthy numbers are through the roof and she earned them by being on every side of every issue. Why isn't Hillary inspiring new legions of voters? That's right, I just told you why.

[Octafish]

37. It was off the charts.

And Detroit came out and VOTED. From what I understand: more than 31-percent of registered voters in the city turned out for the primary. That is amazing, considering only about 15-percent came out in the last primary.

Statewide, twice as many voted in the primary as in the last primary. And that's how the Clinton Machine got beat.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

2. The wife and I voted for her absentee in FL a couple weeks ago. nt

[Lizzie Poppet]

5. My condolences. (nm)

[Dr Hobbitstein]

15. No need, we're proud of our vote.

It's the first time we've ever agreed on a primary candidate. In '08 she was in Richardson's camp and I was in Kucinich's. Of course, we live in FL, so we didn't vote in the '08 primary.

[Lizzie Poppet]

17. No worries...just messin' with you.

Which I probably shouldn't do...given how divisive things have been, it's way too easy for smartass remarks to go horribly wrong.

Best to ya...

[Dr Hobbitstein]

20. You as well. nt

[One of the 99]

6. She led in Michgan too!

[Octafish]

31. Weird isn't it?

Voters didn't do what WaPo's owner wanted.

[kristopher]

43. I'm worried about FL - check into the percentage of absentee ballot voting

Voices are ringing out. More than 1.2 million Floridians have voted early or absentee, about 56% Republican, 44% Democrat. In Broward County more than 81,000 people have already cast absentee or early vote ballots. The total in Miami-Dade County is more than 131,000. In Monroe County, about 2,288 have voted early with about 5,527 having returned their absentee ballots.

Because Florida’s is a “closed” primary, only Republicans and Democrats may vote – independents are left out.

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/03/08/thousands-take-part-in-early-voting-in-south-florida/

That 44% = 528,000 Dem votes already locked in.

Hope Bernie does well, but let's keep it real and not expect another Michigan at least until we get past the 15th.

[flamingdem]

48. You're right. I know people there who early voted Hillary before Michigan

and now wish they voted Bernie.

[Le Taz Hot]

8. Florida is DWS's back yard.

Doesn't surprise me.

[Octafish]

30. Who loves ya, Democrats?

She may wish she had been more, ah, liberal minded as a Democratic leader.

[Le Taz Hot]

32. Ugh! That picture!

I oughtta call Skittles on you!

[Octafish]

44. You know, at the end of the day, when you're running out of energy...

...along comes someone with a great big hug and it changes everything.



Friends, Le Taz Hot!

[Le Taz Hot]

47. ....

[Arazi]

9. I'm beginning to think polls with giant leads for HRC are good for Bernie

it sure seems to incentivize his campaign. That said I'm pretty sure she wins Florida

But yeah baby, bring on these huge margins ahead of time! They seem to be the best predictor of a Sanders win

[Octafish]

29. Somehow, the numbers nationwide are turning!

Imagine what Bernie could do with an honest news media?

Astound. Astound!

[Matt_in_STL]

12. I figured you guys might want to give a day or two before posting polls again

You know, take a day to lick the wounds and such. Maybe reposition the altar to Nate Silver.

[Octafish]

28. Who do you mean by: ''you guys''?

I'm not one of "Them."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/~Octafish

[EndElectoral]

13. Wonder if Capehart had anything to do with this poll?

[Octafish]

27. Capehart set the new standard in low.

There are a handful of assholes on the Internet who could learn a thing or two from him.

http://www.alternet.org/media/how-washington-post-writers-attack-bernies-civil-rights-record-completely-backfired

[CorkySt.Clair]

14. Should be an easy win for Bernie

After last night.

[Octafish]

25. It's like anything's possible now!

Guy was at 3-percent when it started.

Now he's at 50.49 in Michigan.

By the time November comes around, I'll bet it'll be closer to 75.

[BernieforPres2016]

18. What does Nate Silver say?

Seriously, I don't expect Bernie to win Florida with it being a closed primary. Independents won it for him in Michigan yesterday. But I suspect he will come quite a bit closer than 2 to 1.

[Octafish]

23. WaPo has not done much of a job of journalism.

Who knows what the real numbers are?

Who cares what the numbers are or were?

What matters: What will they be after the votes are counted?

[bobthedrummer]

36. Well-Two Clintons. 41 Years. $3 Billion. Inside The Clinton Donor Network (WaPo November 2015)

"Both Clintons declined to be interviewed or comment for this article."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/clinton-money

WP did give US this Sir. It's valuable. THANK YOU ALL, MICHIGAN!!!! I have to wait until April 5 to vote here in WALKERSTAN.
POLLS are meaningless now.

[SheilaT]

19. Yes! And she was that far ahead in Michigan!

I'm still recovering from her blowout there!

Wait, what? Oh, never mind.

[Octafish]

22. I was there, SheilaT! I was there!

Octafish Takeaway Message (thank you, stevenleser, wherever you are!):

[font color="blue"][font size="6"]Never Give Up.[/font size][/font color]

[Mufaddal]

26. I don't think Florida is going to happen

My hope is that we stay viable. Florida is a closed primary. The polls matter a lot more in that regard. It's also my understanding that we've had next to no ground game there until just now. I will definitely be watching the Latin@ vote there, but beyond that I'm not expecting too much.

[Kalidurga]

33. Well if Bernie comes within 10 points I will be happy.

If he wins, I am gonna grave dance on Hillary's campaign.

[JackInGreen]

51. Pls don't

Leave the dancing for Shiva, let's try and be nicer than our ignoble opposition.

[Kalidurga]

54. Just about anything I do will be nicer than many of the opposition here.

They started with NOT GOOD ENOUGH BERNIE and have played as if we are all sexists and we want to take health care away from people. Really they say this even to AA people on the boards.

[JackInGreen]

55. Oh I'm more than aware

Which makes it all the better to be kind...er...ish. let's just not grave dance (as a generality, Fat Tony and his ilk not withstanding).

[Kalidurga]

56. It's just Hillary's campaign that would be dead if Bernie wins Florida.

I am sure Hillary will be back to normal in a couple of days after losing.

[ibegurpard]

34. I don't think Bernie has a shot at Florida

Hopefully the Michigan momentum will help close the gap. We will see.

[Beacool]

38. Florida is a closed primary state.

Hillary won the majority of Democratic votes in MI, but lost the Independent vote to Sanders. MI is an open state. I think that Hillary will do well in FL.

[Jarqui]

52. They didn't do a poll in 9 minutes so "Post-Univision poll" claim smells a bit nt

[CorkySt.Clair]

59. This was posted this afternoon

The word Post in the thread tilte refers to the Washington Post. It's not a post debate poll.

[Blus4u]

53. They should poll tomorrow morning

Bet it would tell a different story

Peace