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Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:08 PM Mar 2016

"Hillary Clinton holding narrowing lead over Bernie Sanders in Ohio, new poll finds"

Link; excerpt:

CLEVELAND, Ohio — With the Ohio primary less than a week away, ... A Quinnipiac University poll, released Wednesday, of likely Ohio voters found Clinton led Sanders 52 percent percent to 43 percent. The university's last poll, released Feb. 23, had shown Clinton with a 55 percent to 40 percent lead, and with the exception of a Feb. 24 Baldwin Wallace survey showing the race as a virtual tie, polling in Ohio generally has shown Clinton leading by double digits.
...
It's worth noting that Sanders on Tuesday night narrowly won the Democratic primary in neighboring Michigan, even though polling there consistently had shown Clinton with a double-digit lead. Some political observers have asked whether this raises questions about the accuracy of polls in other Midwestern states with open primaries, including Ohio and Illinois, which along with Florida, are among the states that will hold elections on March 15.

Here is a link and graph for the February 24 Baldwin Wallace poll mentioned in today's article, above (in light of the polling discrepancies in Michigan, the Baldwin Wallace poll is likely more accurate):
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"Hillary Clinton holding narrowing lead over Bernie Sanders in Ohio, new poll finds" (Original Post) Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 OP
Is she "holding' or is it "narrowing" n/t revbones Mar 2016 #1
Quinnipiac shows it -- Hell Hath No Fury Mar 2016 #4
Sorry - I was just joking about the headline they had. n/t revbones Mar 2016 #5
You know, now that you ask, I'm envisioning PatrickforO Mar 2016 #28
The MSM is tripping over themselves.... smiley Mar 2016 #35
As I understand it, not a state with fans screaming for more shit trade deals. n/t Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #2
Much closer than her lead supposedly was in MI TDale313 Mar 2016 #3
Fingers crossed! NWCorona Mar 2016 #24
Ohio/Florida new must win state kevink077 Mar 2016 #33
kick & rec #5 Vote2016 Mar 2016 #6
I will be smiling on the 15th when I vote for Bernie. SamKnause Mar 2016 #7
I already have Cirque du So-What Mar 2016 #9
I've seen this movie before FlatBaroque Mar 2016 #8
They'll STILL say they're waiting for Wayne County. Ken Burch Mar 2016 #10
HUGE K & R !!! - THANK YOU !!! WillyT Mar 2016 #11
The culture of Ohio and Michigan are very close that is all. Kalidurga Mar 2016 #12
We have a very real chance Mufaddal Mar 2016 #13
that is very true grasswire Mar 2016 #27
I agree with your logic. Jenny_92808 Mar 2016 #29
Ohio makes me nervous. Le Taz Hot Mar 2016 #14
Dare to hope. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #15
Well, old Nate Silver Le Taz Hot Mar 2016 #16
So we're TWICE as likely to win Ohio as Michigan? Hot damn! Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #18
Polls don't mean squat CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #17
The polls are not generically inaccurate. They are specifically overestimating Hillary's appeal: Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #19
I couldn't agree more CorkySt.Clair Mar 2016 #20
I think the polls pretty much set a ceiling for Hillary and a floor for Sanders because she meets or Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #22
Ohio has an open primary, which should be a plus for us. nt Zorra Mar 2016 #21
Yes please. Attorney in Texas Mar 2016 #23
Ohio has clearly narrowed. Barack_America Mar 2016 #25
I was in Ohio (Cleveland, Akron and Columbus) and saw Bernie stuff EVERYWHERE; Hillary stuff not so Vote2016 Mar 2016 #31
Bernie is simply blowing the minds of the establishment DNC. Jackie Wilson Said Mar 2016 #26
The DNC REALLY needs to clean house Vote2016 Mar 2016 #30
Perhaps WE need to clean the house of the DNC Samantha Mar 2016 #32
I'm on board Vote2016 Mar 2016 #36
This narrowing lead story sounds familiar Mnpaul Mar 2016 #34
This message was self-deleted by its author Chichiri Mar 2016 #37
Hillary won Ohio handily. nt Cali_Democrat Mar 2016 #38
By the margins of the original poll no less. vdogg Mar 2016 #39
 

Hell Hath No Fury

(16,327 posts)
4. Quinnipiac shows it --
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 05:12 PM
Mar 2016

narrowing a bit.

Last month she was 55 he was 40, now she is 52 he is 43.

On edit: Oops. It's tough to tell when someone is or isn't being serious around here these days.

PatrickforO

(14,557 posts)
28. You know, now that you ask, I'm envisioning
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:49 PM
Mar 2016

sand flowing through her fingers in spite of her best efforts to hold it in.

smiley

(1,432 posts)
35. The MSM is tripping over themselves....
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:55 PM
Mar 2016

in an effort to keep calling her the democratic favorite. It's funny and disgusting all at the same time.

kevink077

(365 posts)
33. Ohio/Florida new must win state
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:51 PM
Mar 2016

he has to win Ohio and Florida. Winning Michigan is great but losses in these 2 states will be bad...Ohio should be the easy state.

Mufaddal

(1,021 posts)
13. We have a very real chance
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 06:30 PM
Mar 2016

Bernie has tended to over-perform his polling estimates, these results are good but include only Dems (when you factor in Independents, my guess is the odds flip solidly in his favor), and Ohio has an open primary.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
19. The polls are not generically inaccurate. They are specifically overestimating Hillary's appeal:
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:19 PM
Mar 2016

The Mitchell Research poll said Clinton would win Michigan by 37% (66% to 29%) - it was a robo-call poll.

The Target-Insyght poll said Clinton would win Michigan by 32% (62% to 30%) - it was a robo-call poll.

If you graph these robo-call polls, you would think this is how the race would play out:



If you believed the robo-call polls, here is what you would have expected in Iowa:



and New Hampshire:



and Nevada:



and Oklahoma:



and Massachusetts:



These robo-call polls are horribly inaccurate (and they always seem to err in favor of Clinton).

The Hillary crowd is going to continue to post robo-call polls. Just remember how inaccurate they have been in Hillary's favor and don't give those polls any attention.

Likewise, when you see the Hillary crowd blathering about Nate Silver's forecasts, remember that 358 is basing its forecasts on robo-call polls mixed in with the other polling so they have this bias built into the forecast model. Remember, Silver's 538 gave Hillary a 99% chance of winning Michigan. Garbage in, garbage out.

Attorney in Texas

(3,373 posts)
22. I think the polls pretty much set a ceiling for Hillary and a floor for Sanders because she meets or
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 08:23 PM
Mar 2016

falls short of the polls and he meets or exceeds the polls, but the polls rarely understate her appeal or overstate his support.

 

Vote2016

(1,198 posts)
31. I was in Ohio (Cleveland, Akron and Columbus) and saw Bernie stuff EVERYWHERE; Hillary stuff not so
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:13 PM
Mar 2016

much

Samantha

(9,314 posts)
32. Perhaps WE need to clean the house of the DNC
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:48 PM
Mar 2016

We need to do that by forcing out the Third Way, basically through the election process. We are the FDR Dems, and we have a heritage of Democratic programs to protect. The Third Way wants to privatize, cut or just eliminate the planks of the New Deal and other later legislation. Bernanke himself said in an interview I saw on CSPAN a few years ago (3?) that the act establishing Social Security could just be repealed....

Sam

Mnpaul

(3,655 posts)
34. This narrowing lead story sounds familiar
Wed Mar 9, 2016, 09:55 PM
Mar 2016

I seem to have heard it someplace before. I expect it might become quite common.

Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

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