91% Chance Of Hillary Winning The Democratic Nomination. 68% Chance Of Winning General Election.

[onehandle]

91%
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination

68%
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[revbones]

1. We saw how accurate that was for Michigan right? n/t

[H2O Man]

2. Hmmmmm....

I think it is likely that she will be given the nomination. I have much more difficulty seeing her win in November.

[noretreatnosurrender]

6. Nice comment

And if she is "given" the nomination she most certainly will not win in November.

[H2O Man]

8. Thanks.

I want to clarify -- not for you, but for others:

I will vote for our party's nominee. However, in my opinion, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Hillary would face a steep challenge in November. I view her chances of winning as rapidle decreasing. And I think her campaign is 100% responsible.

[lovemydog]

17. Thanks H20 Man.

One of the things that's so difficult about how we may decide to vote is trying to decide how to gauge who has the best chance in November to defeat the republican candidate for President. With the recent polling in Michigan proving inaccurate, that makes it even more difficult to gauge. I tend to vote more with my heart than my head in the primaries. That would lead me more toward voting for Sanders. I too will vote in the general election.

[H2O Man]

22. Very good.

I like to consider trends. I see things moving towards Sanders ....and not just only in the Democratic Party.

[seekthetruth]

28. Her support for fracking is responsible

As well as her paid secret speeches, PAC money, and ties with Wall Street.

I see a hard lesson being potentially learned by the DNC leadership.

Hint for you Debbie: (whispered voice) "listen to the people......"

[agracie]

33. Do you mean irresponsible ?

[fun n serious]

25. What will be will be.

[Scootaloo]

32. Not at the rate she and her supporters are burning every bridge they see

[litlbilly]

3. You mean like the 99.9 % chance to win Michigan? Yeah, try again.

[Logical]

4. 98% chance of me being depressed as hell if Hillary is the nominee. But I could never vote GOP. nt

[seekthetruth]

29. Who says you have to vote?

Besides if it's Hillary and Trump it will be basically the same choice. Yes Hillary is a bit more sane than Trump butt she is dishonest.

[Garrett78]

30. To say Clinton and Trump are basically the same is ridiculous hyperbole.

Clinton and Obama (or Kerry or Gore), yes. But Clinton and Trump are not basically the same. Nor are Clinton and Cruz or Clinton and Rubio or Clinton and Kasich.

[Logical]

36. I dont like hillary, but trump is 1000x worse. Nt

[Lizzie Poppet]

39. Is your state in play?

If not, vote your conscience. If it's a swing state, I can see holding your nose and voting for the slightly-less-horrible candidate...I may have to do that, myself (although it's highly unlikely: I live in Oregon).

[Gwhittey]

5. In high school my friend had a tennis match

this guy that was insanely good, there was no way he was going to win. But he showed up anyway and it turned out the other player was arrested for drunk driving the night before and forfeited. "So never tell me the odds". - Han Solo

[reformist2]

7. Projections? LOL

[Kalidurga]

9. So giving up math for projections cool

[BillZBubb]

10. Keep posting the funny shit!

[Lucinda]

11. Looking great!

[beaglelover]

12. Sorry, I don't think you're allowed to post anything positive about Hillary at this website.

[Joe the Revelator]

14. Oh come one....bring something to the table or don't....

but don't whine.

[beaglelover]

15. Feel better now???????????

[Joe the Revelator]

16. I'm good either way friend...

[beaglelover]

18. You're not my friend.

[Joe the Revelator]

19. Sure I am. I gave you the sage advice to bring something to the table...

That's what friends are for.

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Her trend is downward for the nomination

that sounds about right.

[Dem2]

20. 100% chance the polarization on DU will remain in effect for the foreseeable future

[ibegurpard]

21. Not this shit again...

[jcgoldie]

38. Right its based on...

People actually betting money. Obviously biased just like Nate Silver's voodoo math. Those folks don't plan on winning they just want to sway public opinion and make Hillary seem inevitable. Hey maybe if I put enough money on the Cubs to win the world series it will discourage the other teams... brilliant!

[mhatrw]

23. Up from 4% before Michigan!

[Garrett78]

24. Those numbers seem about right.

A 200+ delegate deficit is awfully difficult to overcome, especially when the one in the lead does best in larger (and more diverse) states. You can't make up a lot of ground by winning the likes of Nebraska, Kansas, Maine, Delaware, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and Alaska, especially when every primary/caucus is proportional. And when the person with the 200+ lead does better among registered Democrats, you're quite reliant on primaries being open. Open primaries allow for a lot of manipulation.

As for the general election, the electoral college map definitely favors the Democratic nominee. The Republican nominee pretty much has to win both Ohio and Florida to have any shot at reaching 270.

[dchill]

26. That's down, isn't it?

[6chars]

27. interesting trends

Hillary's chance of nomination has fluctuated - was in low 80s before SC and up around 96 and as high as 98 after super tues, now drifting back to 91. lots of tea not many leaves.

BUT

dems chance of winning has been marching up, up, up regardless of what happens to the likelihood of one or the other candidate getting the nomination.

[oasis]

31. Sounds about right to me.

[NurseJackie]

34. Good news!

[Depaysement]

35. Political geeks

Using algorithms badly. Tools are not crystal balls.

Yawn.

[CapnSteve]

37. I love you all (except you Trolls...you know who you are! :-)

You are my people - 110% progressive, liberal, bleeding hearts, open minds, kind, generous, etc.

Here are my predictions for the election:

1) Hillary wins the nomination (by pledged delegates, the "supers" will support the voters choice).

2) Despite all sorts of angst, Trump becomes the GOP nominee, or he mounts a third party campaign.

3) Hillary crushes the Donald - he is minor league compared to the team that has been trying to take her down for 20+ years!

4) The GOP loses the Senate, whether they hold hearings on Pres. Obama's Supreme Court APPOINTEE (words are important here) or not.

5) With support from the Democratic majority Senate, and the fair SCOTUS, President Hillary Clinton is free to lead us back from the cliff edge. My hope is that she appoints Pres. Obama to the Supreme Court!

All this will happen if we "vote aggressively". What is voting aggressively? Make sure you have a valid voter registration card, sure you have a photo ID that matches (same name, same address), and verify that your vote has been counted! It is not enough to cast a "provisional" ballot - provisional is just another word for "we will not count your vote"!

Exciting times people! "First, they ignore you; then they laugh at you; then they fight you; then you win!" -Ghandi

Indeed.

[NurseJackie]

40. I just wanted to jump in here and quickly state how much this pleases me ...

... before, well, you know.