Bernie Sanders needs a lot more than Michigan to beat Hillary Clinton

[SecularMotion]

Sen. Bernie Sanders' surprising, come-from-behind victory in Michigan on Tuesday injected new life into his presidential bid, and raised the possibility he could out-perform expectations in upcoming Rust Belt contests.

But his victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the Wolverine State didn't fundamentally alter the fact that Sanders remains a long shot to capture the Democratic nomination.

Despite winning Michigan, Sanders came away from Tuesday's contests further behind in the delegate race. That was thanks to Clinton's crushing victory in Mississippi, where she picked up the vast majority of the delegates.

http://mashable.com/2016/03/10/bernie-sanders-nomination-chances/#MjMFn5UAvOqP

[YCHDT]

1. Hillary is doing what Obama did on 08 but only smarter...

Also I don't see how having a non diverse coalition, for the midst part, is supposed to be progressive.

[Lucinda]

2. Much much more. n/t

[erlewyne]

3. I am voting for BERNIE SANDERS on the Ides of March !!!

That's want primaries are for! I live down the block
from the voting booth. My yard will have Bernie signs.
My vehicles and garage likewise. I will walk and
vote. I will have no signs on me. I will not say who
I am voting for nor will I ask anyone who they are voting
for. I still have my Kucinich signs on display.

[Recursion]

4. The midwest and CA are the big question marks

The northwest he should do very well in, the remaining parts of the south Clinton should do very well in. The fact that the south goes early is good for Clinton's momentum; the problem for Clinton is that if Sanders can stay in (and he seems to be doing fine, money wise), April looks very good for him. And if he comes out of April and May with a lot of momentum, which would mean taking the midwest, that makes CA a very interesting primary indeed...

[CaliforniaPeggy]

5. For once, us Californians might have something important to say this year!

[DCBob]

8. Yes. Very likely Hillary will clinch it on that day.

[Recursion]

10. Ironic that CA is the lynchpin of our electoral strategy and it almost never gets a say

in the nominee.

Now here's a chilling thought: what if Sanders keeps it close enough that we go to convention without a pledged majority?

[morningfog]

14. With only two, one of them will have a majority of pledged delegates.

There is an odd number of total PD. The supers will then almost certainly go with the candidate who has the most pledged, like in 08.

[Recursion]

15. Well, without a delegate majority pledged, I meant (nt)

[Major Hogwash]

18. Yup.

The supers are not stupid; they aren't about to break ranks and vote for the candidate who didn't win the most pledged delegates.
This won't be as close as it was in 2008, though.

Hillary wasn't being investigated by the FBI 8 years ago.

[Major Hogwash]

16. I was hoping the primary season would be over before you get to vote, Peggy.

But, it may drag out that long, after all.

[Gwhittey]

23. So was Clinton

Why do you think there was all the crap coming from media and HRC camp. They know that later states are a lot better area for someone like Sanders. Less religious bible thumping populations that you can pander too and use slimy smear tactics on.

[Jitter65]

6. My guess is that CA will be in huge play.

The really big issues facing them work against each other at times.

It's a mixed bag: Legalization of pot is huge out there. But so is trade, especially to the food growers. It is really hard to tell what they will regard as their biggest issue. H1 visa issue is huge also...think Simi Valley. Hispanics could carry the day for either candidate just as blacks carry the day for Hillary in the south. Nail biter stuff!

[Jitter65]

7. He has a lot more than MI. Doesn't he have the Koch Bros. too?

http://www.thepeoplesview.net/main/2016/3/10/bernies-billionaires-take-two-kochs-nra-glass-house

[Gwhittey]

24. Ha and who says

Slimy GOP low information tactics would not work on DNC voters like it does on GOP voters

[Ford_Prefect]

26. A lovely bit of hit piece that turns the truth about actual funding on its head.

I especially like the way the author minimizes the scale of money and the number of PAC groups devoted to HRC. That's a clever touch. The innuendo about "telegraphing his price"was equally smart. My compliments to Mr. Brock and his embedded minions.The whole composition was such a delightful combination I had to read it twice to take in all the long words. Please sir, may we have some more of the same?

[bunnies]

44. Nice source.

[Bangbangdem]

9. Yes, he does.

And Hillary needs much more than just the south. We shall see.

[nxylas]

11. I think most of us are aware of that

I certainly hope nobody would be foolish enough to believe that Bernie has it in the bag because of Michigan. Inevitability is the other candidate's campaign theme.

[countmyvote4real]

12. HRC is the true Republican candidate and I will not vote for that.

No worries for HRC. If she and her supporters manage to alienate even half of true progressives from holding our nose to cast our vote at all, there are plenty of Republican conservatives that will hold their nose and vote for her anyway. I won't. I am tired of her policies of war. I am tired of her charades. I am tired of her pretense.

If I can't vote for Bernie in the general, I will still vote. It will be for the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein. As such, I will be voting against the DNC establishment, DWS and HRC, the true Republican Conservative Wall Street Candidate. As such, she can win without my vote and I will remain entitled (because I voted) to continue to voice my opposition to her oligarchy coronation.

Our country and democracy has become a joke. If HRC should lose to Trump, then that will be my last laugh on the electorate and the establishment. Either way, they win. We ultimately still lose.

[NurseJackie]

42. Your last laugh? Odd sense of humor.

[jwirr]

50. If they end up very close when all is over the super

delegates are also going to have to consider ^^ THIS ^^. They are going to have to balance the votes of each candidate and their likability to decide who is the one that can win the GE.

It would be a terrible situation for them but it could come to that.

[Helen Borg]

13. Aw!

[morningfog]

17. Bernie needs to net more delegates than Hillary on Tuesday.

Even if he breaks even, it will be hard to make up the deficit with what remains.

I'm hoping he wins OH and MO. Possibly he can take NC. Then break even, or not lose bad in IL and FL.

He make up a good bit in the caucuses and smaller states.

Then the ones that matter big are NY, NJ,PA and CA.

[Major Hogwash]

19. Bernie's message is resounding across this great country of ours.

More people are waking up to the fact that he is indeed viable!!

[Vinca]

20. And if Hillary is the nominee she will need a miracle to win the general election.

Her best bet is a Trump third party run that splits the GOP vote. Otherwise, the polls in the general favor Bernie.

[Gwhittey]

27. Trump 3rd party can not happen

I believe it is too late now. Too many people in media are always saying this but a bunch states have sore-loser laws that prevent you from registering for a primary then for a 3rd party if you lose.Many states accomplish the same requirement by having simultaneous registration dates for the primary and the general election. Connecticut, Iowa, New York and Vermont have neither a sore-loser law nor simultaneous registration deadlines so that wold be only states he could win run.

[Nitram]

37. Hillary beats Trump in almost every poll.

No miracle will be required.

[Uglystick]

39. What if it's not Trump.

I wouldn't count on that.

Carnival Cruz is picking up delegates too.

[Nitram]

40. Cruz would be easier to beat than trump.

He's loony tunes conservative and religulous. His flip-flops and lies will made great negative ad fodder.

[Omaha Steve]

21. Hillary runs out out of friendly states on March 15

As for the OP...

[Garrett78]

46. I bet she'll win a majority of the post-March 15 delegates.

Even if Sanders wins a majority of the post-March 15 primaries/caucuses.

[Omaha Steve]

48. With the cat out of the box after Michigan..

The myth he can't win is dead. The game has changed and some DUers just can't see it. A blind spot.

[Garrett78]

49. I want to see what happens on March 15 first.

If Sanders is down by 400+ delegates after March 15, it'll be virtually impossible for him to win.

[Omaha Steve]

51. I can wait that long

[Stuckinthebush]

22. He needs around 55% of remaining delegates

In every state

That's not going to happen.

[NurseJackie]

28. Math. Reality.

[Stuckinthebush]

41. Hard to swallow sometimes

But, there it is!

[HooptieWagon]

25. I must have missed it...Did someone claim winning MI clinched the nomination?

I haven't read a single Sanders supporter claiming that. We are well aware the primary season is front-loaded with conservative southern states, and Sanders will have to rally in the remainder to get the nomination. OTOH, it's Clinton supporters who claim after a couple early victories that Clinton has sealed it and let the coronation begin. What horseshit. Like it or not this process will go all the way to the convention.

[Buzz Clik]

29. No one claimed that someone said even vaguely similar.

Where did you come up with that?

[HooptieWagon]

32. Did you read the OP?

[Buzz Clik]

33. I certainly did. Perhaps you can quote the passage from the OP...

... where it states that some Bernie supporter said that Sanders had this won. That notion was not even implied.

[Nitram]

38. You're right buzz, no one said that.

What Bernie supporters have been implying from the beginning, if not saying it outright, is that their candidate will inevitably win, and they have been shouting that even more loudly since the MI win. It seems like the MI win has been taken by many in the Bernie camp to prove Bernie's inevitability.

[Buzz Clik]

45. When I first read your "will inevitably win" comment, I snorted and looked for sarcasm.

But I actually ran into this on another thread today: They honest-to-God believe that Sanders's win is inevitable. He will be down 300 delegates (or more) by the end of the day on Tuesday (assuming we don't get hit by a meteor), and they are cheering it won't be any greater. "Clinton will not win another state after Tuesday."

Wow.

[monicaangela]

30. If we're smart

We won't let this new and different type of southern strategy decide who will be president of the U.S.

[John K]

34. that's a real low blow

If you know anything about the Nixon southern strategy the approach was a racialist attempt that worked. There is not racial about Clinton's appeal to black AND Hispanic voters. They know who she is and they are more moderate than progressives. No offense to Bernie, but "what have you done for US lately."

[monicaangela]

36. Not that southern strategy

This southern strategy:

Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign is methodically building a political firewall across the South in hopes of effectively locking up the Democratic nomination in March regardless of any early setbacks in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary.

Mrs. Clinton’s advisers, struck by the strength of Senator Bernie Sanders in those two states, have been assuring worried supporters that victories and superdelegate support in Southern states will help make her the inevitable nominee faster than many Democrats expect. They point to her popularity with black and Hispanic voters, as well as her policy stances and the relationships that she and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have cultivated. Mrs. Clinton was similarly confident at this point eight years ago, before Barack Obama and his superior organizers began piling up delegates, including in many Southern states.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/06/us/politics/hillary-clinton-relying-on-southern-primaries-to-fend-off-rivals.html?_r=0

[ibegurpard]

31. Well duh

Who claimed otherwise?

[oasis]

35. The Obamas and Elizabeth Warren will be free to campaign for HRC

once she clears the last delegate hurdle, so it's imperative we get it done early as possible.

[99Forever]

43. No shit?

Good ting yoa figgered dat out. Yur 1 smart feller.

[pdsimdars]

47. We'll see, but Hillary can't even put him away with the whole national establishment working for her

That is because that is all she has. She does not have the will of the people.

[Gothmog]

52. From the Clinton campaign

I found this video to be interesting