New Florida Poll (1/3 Surveyed Post-Michigan) Shows 68%-23% Clinton Lead

[bigtree]

AlGiordano ‏@AlGiordano 2h2 hours ago
New Florida poll (1/3 surveyed post-Michigan) has Latinos 73% Clinton, 20% Sanders: http://www.theledger.com/article/20160310/POLITICS/160319958#document/p11 …

[dchill]

1. Yeah, looks like pre-Michigan poll.

Did Nate Silver take that poll?

[bigtree]

2. it's 1/3 post Michigan

...and a closed primary.

[dchill]

3. I know, and I know.

I'm just messin' with you. I think we've seen enough to judge the validity of the average primary poll. I know I have.

[hack89]

4. Most of then have been accurate

Michigan certainly was an outlier but Hillary's string of blow out wins in the southern were certainly inline with polling.

[bigtree]

7. she's actually been underpolled in the South

...she won the last contest in MS by 66 points.

[Cali_Democrat]

23. A lot of the polls have been accurate.

One poll is off and suddenly we have to throw out all the polls?

That doesn't make very much sense IMO.

[jcgoldie]

5. Nate Silver doesn't "take" polls

He just twists them to fit his corporate bias according to the Sanders supporters on this board... or is it his liberal media bias according to Romney supporters in 2012? Oh well whatever.

[Iliyah]

6. K & R

Closed primary. But polls only matter when it favors the other candidate.

[riversedge]

8. I am glad that it is a closed primary

[grossproffit]

14. Me too. No funny business.

[Roland99]

20. Only way HRC can win from now. Doesn't bode well for her in the General Election

Independents are turning for Bernie in a big way and their numbers are growing. They aren't turning to her in the primaries and likely wouldn't in the General Election.

Bernie is much more electable vs. any GOP opponent and the polls show it:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich all poll better than Clinton. Sanders wins against all. And by much larger margins vs. Trump

[bigtree]

21. the best Sanders can hope for is a split in delegates

...and there aren't any high delegate states where the vote is expected to be be lopsided in his favor.

[Roland99]

22. Can always end up like 2008 did. Superdelegates going for Bernie like they did for Obama

If Bernie is much more likely to win vs. GOP, I know *I* would be swinging my vote his way!!

Just depends on how much we all want to maintain the status quo w/the establishment or start down the path to fixing our political and economic systems to work for everyone!

[bigtree]

27. that's only going to happen IF he has a lead in delegates

...every state where they do little more than split delegates puts him further behind, especially large ones.

[Iliyah]

29. The best that BS can hope for are OPEN primaries

where Indies and GOPers can vote.

[Gwhittey]

9. Same mistake they made in other states.

The media just does not want to admit that the world has changed.

Those interviewed on land-lines were chosen by the random variation of the last four digits of their telephone numbers.

[grossproffit]

16. There's also open primary vs. closed primary to consider.

[DCBob]

10. Massive epic blowout in the making!

Much like the other southern states.

[Armstead]

26. Yes she'll carry the South in the General Election

(just in case )

[DCBob]

28. If she wins Florida in the general nothing else matters.

Its over.

[Armstead]

30. Her and Trump?....A toss up is likely

[DCBob]

32. Hard to imagine Trump winning enough of the angry white asshole vote..

to overcome the huge AA and Latino vote for Hillary.

[Yavin4]

40. And the women vote.

Any woman voting for Trump should be directed to counseling. It's like a African American voting for a KKK leader.

[DCBob]

41. Indeed.

[Lizzie Poppet]

42. Even leaving aside that a fair-sized minority of FL Latinos _aren't_ liberal...

...you have to remember that Hillary is not going to draw young voters to the polls. Sure, those that do show up will mostly vote for her. But I can't see any good argument against the assertion that Hillary tanks the young voter turnout nationwide. Even in Florida, which skews high in age demographics, this is a big problem. Barack Obama is President because both black and young voters turned out for him in large numbers. Hillary can count on only half of that equation.

The other fly in the ointment, of course, is Hillary's unpopularity with independents. Obviously left-leaning independents will vote for her (although I'd bet big money she suppresses liberal Indy turnout pretty significantly compared to Bernie). Conservative independents wouldn't vote for Bernie, either, so that's a wash. Moderate independents, in an election sometimes called "the year of the outsider?" If she ends up facing Trump, she'll get murdered in that demographic, and the election's basically over. Against Rubio or Carnival, it's up in the air.

[DCBob]

43. I just cant imagine why normal people would vote for that jerk.

I think many will come to their senses by November and realize this is too serious to allow a lunatic like Trump to run this country

[Lizzie Poppet]

44. Me either. I guess "stupid" is the new "normal."

This is the first election in ages where I've not been participating out of a lingering sense of duty to a system I believe can no longer reform itself and actually represent the people. An election in which it's become obvious that it's actually possible for a candidate that's not part of the status quo to win...

But it also looks like there's a strong chance the American electorate, when faced with this unexpected choice, may well make that choice of outsider. At which point I'll probably revert to an even deeper version of my previous cynicism. If that's what we're going to do with this opportunity (pick the outsider when the more establishment candidate is clearly superior), then maybe representing the people isn't as good a thing as I thought it was. Democracy can't really work with an uninformed electorate.

[DCBob]

45. Idiocracy is starting to look like a documentary.

[Lizzie Poppet]

46. No kidding! Camacho in 2016!

[Armstead]

49. That's what they said about Reagan and GW Bush

[kennetha]

33. Remember Obama carried North Carolina in 2008

and Virginia in both 2008 and 2012. Hillary could certainly replicate those feats.

Does that count as South enough for you?

[RoccoR5955]

11. Keyword: LIKELY VOTERS

Likely voters have often been voters who have voted in the last two primaries. This would mean that in order to participate in the poll, one must be at least 26.
In the meantime, if folks between 18 and 26 come out more, Bernie has a good shot.
I know that the poll conveniently has a slot for 18-34. Why do you think that they cut it off at 34, and not 30?
I don't know either.
I am just sayin' that this is the way most polling places go with their "facts."
Polls also showed Clinton to be way ahead in Michigan the day before the primary. If Bernie pulls off an upset in Florida, like he did in Michigan, or for that matter, any of the 15 March states, the momentum will have shifted, big time.

[ibegurpard]

12. Bernie is not going to win Florida

Best he can do is cut into her lead. He can do that.

[grossproffit]

13. Is this a closed primary?

no "Today I'm a Democrat" voters?

[DCBob]

24. Yes.. closed.

Thank goodness!

[fun n serious]

47. Closed. Thank Goodness. nt

[DebDoo]

15. Question?

What does (1/3 surveyed) mean?

[jcgoldie]

17. It means the poll spanned dates prior to Mich primary

1/3 of the people surveyed were called after that result... the assumption being that the surprise in Michigan may have buoyed his support elsewhere.

[DebDoo]

18. Thanks!

Thanks for explaining that.

[Lucinda]

19. KNR Thank you!

[Armstead]

25. She'll win the Old Fart vote so she'll probably win Florida

Not that I have anything against old farts, being near to that age myself. But I don't vote like the majority of my fellow old farts.

[Attorney in Texas]

31. I'm SHOCKED to see Hillary ahead in a Dixiecrat state! When is she going to win a majority of

pledged delegates OUTSIDE of the anti-progressive South?

She's looking more and more like a regional candidate.

[kennetha]

34. Let's see

if she wins, North Carolina, Virginia and Florida in the general election does that count? You think that would be a bad thing?

[Attorney in Texas]

36. I don't think she's going to make it to the general election. If she does, I hope Warren takes those

states in 2020 after the Cruz administration puts us through 4 years of hell on earth.

[DCBob]

38. Cheering on the Republicans again?

[Attorney in Texas]

50. I'm not cheering on the Republicans. I'm voting for our nominee, but noting that we don't win if our

nominee is HATED by independent voters, is mistrusted even by a very large segment of Democrats, and inspires no enthusiasm from either group of voters.

I voted for Sanders in the primary and I hope to get the chance to vote for Sanders again in November, but -- no matter who we nominate -- I'm voting Democratic in the general election (even though I think Jill Stein is a fantastic candidate, I'm a Democrat and so I'll vote for Hillary over Stein if it comes to that, but I hope it doesn't come to that).

[DCBob]

52. Your constant insistence that Hillary is going to lose sounds more like a wish than a warning.

So, once Hillary is our official nominee will you go after the Republican candidate with the same zeal you have gone after Hillary??

Somehow I doubt it.

[fun n serious]

48. You think Cruz? I think Trump nt

[Attorney in Texas]

51. I hope Trump. I think either of our candidates beats Trumps but I think only Sanders beats Cruz.

[Arkana]

35. Bernie should win by about 5 percent then.

[bigtree]

37. can't vote for Nader in this one

...or Buchanan.

No independents or republicans allowed to pad Bernie's votes in our Democratic primary in Fla..

[Arkana]

54. Registered independent who's voted Democrat all his life.

Let me guess--this makes me less of a liberal in your eyes?

[reformist2]

53. LOL! You know that Hill supporters only feel comfortable now with polls that show 40 point leads...

[oasis]

39. Hill's debate repudiation of communist dictators likely had an impact. nt