92% Chance Of Hillary Winning The Democratic Nomination. 68% Chance Of Winning General Election.

[onehandle]

92%
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-democratic-nomination

68%
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner

[PoliticAverse]

1. And 99% chance of winning Michigan! n/t

[tecelote]

4. Perfect!

[DLnyc]

9. Beat me to it!

Right on the money.

Basically they are saying, "if everything goes the way a bunch of us currently think things will go, then things will most likely go the way a bunch of us think they will go!"

A very true, but utterly useless, statement!

[Purveyor]

15. I just had to go and find that precious thread...

538 projection of Michigan: Clinton >99%

RCP Aggregate: Clinton +20.4
Pollster Aggregate: Clinton +18

Plenty of recent posts about Sanders "closing the gap", but I'm sure someone will complain that this is "discouraging" or "attempting to force him out".

[Betty Karlson]

19. I thought it was > 99%? n/t

[peacebird]

26. Ouch! Was just about to post that the pollsters are anxious to prove Hillary is inevitable

They blew it epically in Michigan. I think Bernie will be the nominee and our next President

[revbones]

2. .....

Sure.

[elleng]

3. 'If we are going to nominate someone who 50% of our people can't stand,

we will lose.'
Marco Rubio

[restorefreedom]

20. ellen, if you had a nickel for how many times that quote was appropriately placed....

methinks you would be on a south pacific island by now. ......

[elleng]

25. Not a bad place to be,

but I'm home now, and happy to be here!

[restorefreedom]

28. :) nt

[awake]

5. And what are the chances that Hillary gets Indicted?

[Major Nikon]

23. Results...

On Sat Mar 12, 2016, 10:21 AM an alert was sent on the following post:

And what are the chances that Hillary gets Indicted?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1471545

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

This shit is getting beyond absurd. Either you are here to help get democrats elected or you are rooting for the other side.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sat Mar 12, 2016, 10:30 AM, and the Jury voted 2-5 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: It's a question, not an attack. I'm sure some oddsmaker somewhere would be happy to quote the odds.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Concerns about whether a candidate would be viable or not are valid. If she were nominated, and then indicted, how would that affect the odds of Trump being elected?
Juror #3 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: This shit is getting beyond absurd. Hillary isn't the only option "to help get democrats elected". If anything she is a net negative for all the down ballot democrats, not to mention that the FBI is OFFICIALLY investigating her use of the private email server.
Juror #5 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: If you want to accuse Democratic candidates for president of felonies, go to Free Republic or some other right wing nutball site and help the Republicans openly.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Pfffffffft.

[awake]

24. To juror #5 I did not accuse anyone

I do think we all need to be aware that there is a very real FBI investigation of one of the people running to be our candidate, and there is a chance of an indictment before or after our convention. My question is what are those chances, and this is a question that we all need to think about.

If our candidate is indicted after the convention then Trump or no Trump our chances of winning the White House become less than 1%

The investigation is not being done by some right wing wing nuts it is coming out of a justice department controlled by our party.

Which ever candidate you support this concern will not just go away by ignoring the real possibility of further action being taken by the justice department.

[litlbilly]

6. and what were their numbers for Michigan?

[litlbilly]

7. im guessing 99% just like Nate:)

[virtualobserver]

12. close....it was 90%

[JonLeibowitz]

29. False. Nate Silver predicted a greater than 99% chance of HRC winning Michigan.

[virtualobserver]

30. the op was about predictwise, not Nate Silver

[JonLeibowitz]

31. Ah I misunderstood, thought you were referring to Nate by "it". Apologies.

[Gregorian]

8. With an FBI investigation cloud over her head?

I'm now beginning to see Hillary's run for the White House as irresponsible to the Democratic party, because of what has, and what may happen in this election. 100 FBI agents are not just snooping around, but ready to indict for criminal activity.

So cheer on.

[JTFrog]

21. Or, in your case, dream on.

[nichomachus]

10. And a 100 percent chance of destroying the Democratic party

She will be a terrible president, just like she's been terrible at everything else she's done, and she will drag the party down with her.

[Uglystick]

11. Here's my prediction

99% of Predictwise being completely wrong.

[dubyadiprecession]

13. You really know how to bum the s**t out of the trump and bernie supporters

[peacebird]

27. Not really, this Bernie supporter thinks that predictwise is as wrong as Nate Silver was w Michigan

[Herman4747]

14. I have HAD IT with people reporting Predictwise!!!

This same STUPID Predictwise had Marco Rubio at 47% to win the Republican nomination around February 12, and Ted Cruz at 3%!!
So two extremely right-wing senators, who are in agreement about 98% of the time -- why should one be at 47% and the other at 3%??
By February 12th Cruz even had more delegates!!
No, 47% to 3% was STUPID. Stupid, stupid, stupid!
And, no, it was not just a single day that Predictwise over-rated Rubio's chances -- it was for the entire month of February, and into early March.

One of the "sources" of Predictwise is Betfair. http://predictwise.com/faq/ Betfair is a BRITISH wagering market! Now think: How well do you suppose you would do betting as an American on who will become the next British Prime Minister??? Not so well, right?

[Gwhittey]

22. Because Cruz did the whole shut down thing

And went against marching orders. The Donors lost alot of money due to the shut down and losing money pisses them off.

[NurseJackie]

16. This makes me happy! Very, very happy!!

[reformist2]

17. Polls and predictions, and projections, LOL!

[Lucinda]

18. TY ~ KNR