Sanders' internal polling in Florida indicates a single-digit race

[Karmadillo]

Last edited Mon Mar 14, 2016, 06:45 PM - Edit history (1)

No idea how reliable this author's information regarding Florida is, but if it's true, tomorrow night might end up being right exciting.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-abramson/more-shocking-upsets-in-s_b_9452498.html

More Shocking Upsets in Store for Bernie Sanders?
03/13/2016 08:41 pm ET | Updated 18 hours ago

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Here's what we know: down by 37 in Illinois just five days ago, Sanders is now up by two according to CBS News; down by 30 in Ohio five days ago, Sanders is now down by only single digits; the only polling in Missouri has Sanders in a statistical dead heat with Clinton, per the poll's margin of error; and while the polling in Florida at first blush seems less favorable -- Sanders has "only" cut 17 points off Clinton's 45-point lead in the last 48 hours, according to CBS News -- the Sanders campaign reports its internal polling shows a race in the high single-digits, and given that this internal data turned out to be correct in Michigan, it seems we should all be paying it some mind.

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[Cali_Democrat]

1. Bernie needs big wins

Single digit losses ain't gonna cut it.

[morningfog]

2. He needs to keep is competitive and chip away at Hillary's lead.

A couple moderate wins in bug states with several big wins in small states can get him within striking distance for the big show on June 7.

[Fawke Em]

13. What are bug states?

LOL. I'm trying to determine if you mean "big" states or the Southern states of Florida and North Carolina, known for their big bugs (well, coastal Carolina, anyway).

[ladjf]

11. Thanks for the encouraging remark. nt

[Peace Patriot]

14. Untrue! If Sanders wins Illinois, Ohio and Missouri and does better than expected in...

Florida, he is very well set up for the blue states. And this is true even if his winning margins in the first three are small, because why? Because of MOMENTUM. His margin in Michigan was small but his win was so unexpected that it drove momentum into the current states' primaries. Momentum means funds (he surged again in his small donation campaign). It means more volunteers and even more passionate volunteers (smelling more victories). It means continued huge rallies. It means more press coverage as the dolts of the Corporate News can't find excuses not to cover him. So if he does better than expected in FLA (and/or NC), it is by no means a negative fact. Depends on the context. And even if it's a mixed bag--win in Ill., tie in Ohio, win in Mo, zoom up 10pts in FLA (but not win it), ditto NC, he will have gathered some momentum and still have a viable campaign.

You are speaking of one item in isolation. Context is all.

[JDPriestly]

15. He'll get big wins on the West Coast.

The primary season is fixed so that small, conservative states vote first.

The liberals that back Bernie are huge out here.

The only Hillary sign I have seen is a homemade one put on a telephone pole.

All the other campaign signs are Bernie signs. I'm in Los Angeles.

Bernie will win by huge margins on the West Coast. Hillary is not popular here.

Mostly just a few women and wealthy people like her. Not ordinary voters out here.

[Lizzie Poppet]

16. True. But I'm sure most were planning on a drubbing in Florida.

I still maintain this is going down to the wire.

[Barack_America]

3. I read that. Very interesting.

I think it also went on to mention that Clinton's internal polling for MI found the same.

[LonePirate]

7. Interesting. So both campaigns had private polls showing MI was close.

Yet the external pollsters were far off from reality. That is odd to say the least.

[nadinbrzezinski]

12. Of course they do, they are called Internal Polls

ask President Romney how good his were?

[magical thyme]

17. external pollsters report to corporate masters and produce results intended to create reality

Internal pollsters (other than those that reported to Rove/Mittens, lol) are looking for reality in order to provide direction to their masters.

To me, it explains Hillary's desperate seeming measures in the days leading up to Michigan. I wrote elsewhere that I suspected her internal polls were scaring her based on her suddenly going negative.

[corkhead]

4. Meanwhile at the Clinton headquarters:

[GreatGazoo]

5. The impact of Clinton's loss in Michigan is rippling through to these next states

If Clinton loses tomorrow it will be even harder for her to keep her bandwagon thing going. The whole narrative will change if she loses Florida, let alone Illinois.

[JackRiddler]

8. You mean the other way around, though.

The narrative changes if she loses Illinois (where I'd bet against her), let alone Florida. Florida would be the beginning of the end for Clinton.

[GreatGazoo]

9. yes Florida would be the more devastating loss for Team Clinton

[Jarqui]

6. Funny, I clicked the link expecting to see writer HA Goodman

Maybe Bernie's have a good week ..

[Gwhittey]

10. Sanders internal polling is correct because

They are not just using past voters in 2008 primaries like most other polls are. They are using stuff to target voters that include young voters. Like using past High School class ring ordering, Year book lists etc.

[ThePhilosopher04]

18. She said Basta so all is good for Ole Hill in Florida.