2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat's your Democratic Primaries 2016 postmortem?
Big crowds don't equate to big votes. Neither do more yard signs and bumper stickers.
Online polls are not statistically representative of eligible primary voters. They are a measure, however imprecise, of which candidates have the most energized online supporters, or most social media savvy fan base.
If you're a young Bernie supporter and this is your first rodeo, this won't be the first time your heart gets broken. Likewise, Hillary supporters new to the game will eventually get whacked, too. In '84 I was sure Gary Hart had it in the bag. In '88, Joe Biden. In 2004, Wes Clark. And yes, in 2008 Hillary Clinton.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)Could you guys be any more arrogant? F*** that S***!
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)count. Obama did the same to hillary in 2008, and hillary supporters were in denial too.
Betty Karlson
(7,231 posts)How's all that bridge-burning working out for you?
bigtree
(85,920 posts)...ass.
Surya Gayatri
(15,445 posts)DrDan
(20,411 posts)be a bit misleading and a detriment overall
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Vinca
(50,172 posts)But give them a year. They'll be back carping about how their candidate would have made things better.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)This is the main reasons this lasted so long.
Took two extra weeks for Hillary to put this thing away.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)endorsements, and the turnout machines in her pocket, the dirty tricks, Clinton is still losing and nearly losing states.
What else have I learned? We need to review our vote count system and put proper checks and balances in place. Refusing to audit the Iowa count was a big red flag that there is a problem with our voting process.
Oh, and it isn't over yet. Though, I do wonder if Trump is going to pivot to take on Clinton...
longship
(40,416 posts)What the fuck kind of hubris is this?
It isn't over yet, and there are a whole lot of people whole are yet to vote.
I know. It's her turn. Well, we've heard that one before.
A disgustingly presumptuous post.
jfern
(5,204 posts)Nye Bevan
(25,406 posts)And we didn't get one. It has been a vigorous, hard fought but honorable primary campaign, in stark contrast to the shitshow on the Republican side.
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)1. The revolution will not be easy. I think that the Democratic party has made a big mistake by embracing Wall Street and giving the stiff arm to white working class voters by supporting trade agreements that ship their jobs oversees and tacitly joining cheap labor Republicans in supporting unregulated immigration and overly broad guest workers visa programs. I think that throwing out identity politics as a bone for this rest of us much in the way that the GOP throws out guns gods and gays to entice working class voters but clearly there are large numbers of Democratic voters who disagree with this. I can understand this. If you're an African-American you are not easily enticed from the tried and true and skeptical of a message that says a rising tide based on economics alone lifts all boats. In your experience that ain't necessarily so.
2. Most Americans are inherently conservative. They will reflexively support order over chaos every time. I wonder how many voters were turned off by seeing people waving Bernie signs while protesting at Trump rallies. Mind you, I'm not saying that these rallies should not have been protested I'm just suggesting that they maybe should have left the Bernie signs at home.
3. For most blue collar Americans the word Socialism is still toxic. Bernie's done a amazing job of explaining his position which has lead to his ability to challenge Clinton so effectively but in the end it's hard to overcome a lifetime of indoctrination. I suspect that many blue collar types could not bring themselves to vote for him. I imagine that we lost many of them to Trump.
4. Institutional support matters. Clinton has the open support of the Democratic party establishment and of existing institutions such as the African-American churches and many labor leaders. All the enthusiasm in the world won't overcome that. Barak Obama was able to beat the Democratic establishment because his ethnicity gave him a large base of support and he had the young people and base liberals. Sanders had Obama's youth and liberal support but a divided labor and Hispanic base made it more difficult for him.
5. Sanders may have lost but the rise of Donald Trump is a warning sign that the Wall Street Democrats had better start thinking about all of those people whose jobs and lives have been destroyed by the trade deals they champion.
I hope that this does not lead to a President Trump or a President Cruz. I hope that Clinton fights as hard (as dirty if necessary) against the Republican candidate as she did Sanders and earlier than that, Obama. She is still a weak candidate with stunningly bad approval ratings among independent voters. Amazing, both parties have managed to elect nominees that most Americans do not like.
I hope that Sanders stays in to the end. For one thing I want to cast a primary vote that I can feel good about, for another thing I want to see him pressing her to the end, fighting the good fight, getting some good planks in the platform and maybe press her to pick a running mate I can feel good about; someone like Sherrod Brown perhaps or my old flame Howard Dean (though I'll admit I've soured a bit on the good doctor this cycle). A girl can hope, can't she? Nah, it'll most likely be some old centrist hack like Tim Kaine.
Finally, I don't like Hillary Clinton or her politics and especially her Wall Street ties but barring some crazy scenario involving multiple third party candidates and both main party candidates disintegrating, I will vote for her in the general election as will most Bernie Sanders supporters. Whether I invest my money, time and effort in getting her elected is going to be entirely up to her.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
MoonRiver
(36,926 posts)Before last nifght I really wasn't sure. Now I am. Go Hill!
apnu
(8,722 posts)Hillary continues to lead the delegate count, but nobody dreamed Bernie would capture what he has. It shows the Left is alive and well, and Bernie's actions have dragged Hillary to the left where she should be.
Brenie's chances of winning the Primary are smaller today than yesterday, but his toughness and wiilpower is breath taking, we need more of that on the Left.
The same for Hillary. She was supposed to skate to the Convention, but is dealing with unexpected and stiff opposition. She is hanging tough with it, as she does in most things.
We liberals and progressives are blessed with two strong, qualified, and historic canidates.