2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWon Delegates Clinton 1112, Sanders 806
Delegates won.
Clinton--1112
Sanders--806
It's a much closer race than the media is reporting (1599-844), since the actual delegates won matters more than the totals with Super-Delegates. The purpose of tacking the "Supers" on there is to depress Sanders folks, to make people think it's all over, it's already a runaway.
There are thirty more States coming, and many are in areas of the country Sanders won by margins like 60-40. And in the end, if Sanders catches Hillary, and moves ahead to restore a more liberal Democrat to the party, perhaps saving it, and maybe pulling Republicans back from the brink?--well the normal practice for Super Delegates is to reverse their support, and put it in the leaders camp.
Not doing that, spells disaster for the Democrats in the general election.
There is still time. Hillary does worse in polls against Trump than Sanders. Heed. Thirty more Sanders supporters--truth is, last night wasn't too bad--did better in NC, tied in two big norther States, and a lot of independents that usually fall for Sanders, switched and put Kasich ahead in Ohio.
Renew Deal
(81,852 posts)to make up for it?
DrDan
(20,411 posts)close races in NY, California, Pa
hmmmmm . . .
Stallion
(6,474 posts)probably the population of those 5 states equals the population of the DFW Metroplex
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)When you do best in small states and your opponent does best in large states, your deficit can only grow. Math.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)Dems allocate delegates proportionally.
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Not actually impossible...but very, very close to it.
*shrug* It's not like I feel I have any choice but to stick with Bernie until the actual nomination is made. He's the only candidate, with the possible exception of Jill Stein, that is anywhere near my views.
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)The process is tilted against progressives, but I think Bernie is still going to win. Where does clinton make up ground? She got her Texas and Florida. Now it's a matter of Bernie's margins from here on out.
Jenny_92808
(1,342 posts)that Bernie will win. I feel the momentum in growing in the progressive states!
liberalmike27
(2,479 posts)California is more liberal, winner take all, over 400 delegates alone. Not much talk about New York, and Sanders is from the Bronx.
Plus he has been winning states 60-40 outside of the deep South.
Folks, Hillary is winning big in States that will not matter in the general election. No matter whether black voters are choosing her there, their votes will be lost in the pool of my liberal vote, in the general election, that 37% that hangs onto voting Democrat, in a sea of red.
Analyze the States outside of the South--look how the farther North you get, the higher Sanders percentage is--in NC last night he got 41%. In Alabama, what, about 17%.
Thirty States left--lots of fight.
The whole point in them reporting the delegate totals with SD's is to weaken your resolve. The media is in it for Hillary, as she is the establishment, corporate, Wall Street, Third Way, (ugh) New Democrat, Triangulating candidate. I reject her.
Uncle Joe
(58,342 posts)Renew Deal
(81,852 posts)Capt. Obvious
(9,002 posts)Mark Penn thought so
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)...the Democrats don't have winner-take-all primaries/caucuses.
Secondly, there are 24 states left. Plus DC, Puerto Rico and The Virgin Islands.
Thirdly, Clinton won the 2 states that matter most in the general election--OH and FL.
When people are so misinformed, it's no wonder people don't grasp the mathematical and demographic realities that point to it being virtually impossible for Clinton to lose at this point.
Uncle Joe
(58,342 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)Dr Hobbitstein
(6,568 posts)Are you sure about California? From what I've read, it's only winner-take-all for Republicans, proportional for Democrats.
NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)This has to completely change your thoughts.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/CA-D
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Oy!
liberalmike27
(2,479 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,342 posts)Thanks for the thread, liberalmike.
Faux pas
(14,657 posts)pa28
(6,145 posts)Bernie is in this to the convention.
Historic NY
(37,449 posts)do the math even if its a split Hillary will still be ahead.
Clinton needs 784
Sanders needs 1539
Response to Historic NY (Reply #26)
Mudcat This message was self-deleted by its author.
Gregorian
(23,867 posts)You're counting pledged delegates. Doesn't work that way.
LonePirate
(13,414 posts)Here are the pledged delegate counts for the remaining primaries and caucuses:
AZ: 75
ID: 23
UT: 33
AK: 16
HI: 25
WA: 101
WI: 86
WY: 14
NY: 247
CT: 55
DE: 21
MD: 95
PA: 189
RI: 24
IN: 83
Guam: 7
WV: 29
KY: 55
OR: 61
Virgin Islands: 7
Puerto Rico: 60
CA: 475
MT: 21
NJ: 126
NM: 34
ND: 18
SD: 20
DC: 20
Total pledged remaining: 2005
HRC leads Bernie by a little over 300 pledged delegates. Bernie must win roughly 1165 to HRC's 840 in order to win a majority of pledged delegates. That amounts to just over 58% of the remaining pledged delegates (or a 58/42 split from all of the remaining contests).
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)But--viewing this as a 'horse race' (which is a narrow way to look at it)--we need to factor in the ENORMOUS HANDICAPS that have been imposed on the Bernie Sanders campaign from the beginning, from the outside. These include:
--the current Clinton/Corporate narrative that "it's over"
--the past Clinton/Corporate narratives that it was "over" at each marker on the racecourse
--the beginning Clinton/Corporate narrative that our 'Seabiscuit' never had a chance
--the cumulative impact of all of these narratives: NO COVERAGE
--the heavily imposed Corporate narrative that it's a 'horse race' and NOT ABOUT IDEAS
--the brainwashing and heavy dumbing down of the American electorate
--the shocking 99% coverage handed to Trump vs a campaign of IDEAS (Sanders)--TWO insurgent campaigns, one gets 24/7 coverage, the other gets, oh, 0.01% grudging notice after huge wins
--the Democratic National Committee's incredibly unfair bias toward Clinton
--the existing system of pay-to-play that puts almost all Dem elected officials in debt to Clinton/DNC
--all Dem elected officials (& most candidates) dependent on corporate/billionaire $ (unlike Sanders who rejects it)
--almost all Dem party officials & leaders part of the pay-to-play system
--labor unions decimated by Reagan junta; almost all labor union upper-mucks now 'players'
--erosion (almost disappearance) of Dem party principles: pro-workers, pro-poor, etc.
--in general, the simply gargantuan power of Wall Street, banksters, transglobal corps, MIC privateers, consolidated Corp media, et al, and foreign influences (the Saudis, other $$ investors)
--the frontload of rightwing states in the primaries (handed Clinton a winning 'narrative'--in truth a hollow one--going into the swing states; Sanders early wins and ties--a remarkable showing--swamped when Dixiecrats hit the Corporate airwaves).
And one self-imposed handicap: no superpacs, no Corp or billionaire money (This handicap is the core of the Sanders campaign, but it is nevertheless a handicap for operating in this atmosphere--for one thing, it doubles-down the determination of all of the above to kill Sanders' ideas and stop his campaign).
Personally, I would add this handicap: The privatized vote counting system (since 2004), with 'TRADE SECRET' code in all of our voting systems, nationwide, owned and controlled by a handful of private corporations (the biggest one, ES&S/Diebold with far rightwing connections) and no auditing in half the states and inadequate auditing in the other half. Who knows what they are doing? They, do, in fact, have the ability--the easy ability--to rig elections, and have probably done so (Bush '04, Congress, governors, state leg's).
Conclusion: It is utterly amazing how well this campaign of ideas, led by the most principled and honest politician in the USA--and the best Democrat!--has done so far. Sanders is, in fact, still in the running as to the 'horse race' due to his incredible energy, the power of his ideas and the millions of people who have supported him as volunteers, donors and internet news activists. He has run a brilliant campaign and so have we. This campaign had NO chance six months ago. Now it has a chance, as to the 'horse race,' with March 15 behind us, and blue skies ahead.
But we need to be aware--very aware--of the handicaps we are operating under. They will probably intensify. I'm a Californian and, believe me, our state party is now a Corporate Democratic Party like all the rest. And that includes Gov. Jerry Brown. We are a socially liberal state but our Establishment is as bad as any of them on the most important matters: income inequality and filthy campaign $$ (and all its ills--lobbying, revolving door, rule by the uber-rich, etc.). I'm not saying Sanders can't win here--I think he can--but it won't be an easy ride.
ONE MORE TIME: This is a campaign of IDEAS, not a 'horse race'--or not only a 'horse race.' That is why Sanders is in it to the Convention, and, as to ideas, beyond the Convention. He has sparked a revolution--and we have sparked a revolution--that has the power to transform the Democratic Party into the party of the people once again, and to transform our country back into a democracy, which it has not been for some time now. We have only the vestiges of a hollowed out, rigged, and now Corporate-run democratic system to work with. Consider this to be the FIRST massive effort to change it from within. An amazing accomplishment, truly. And remember...SEABISCUIT! (Americans love an underdog!)