2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumhere's why Bernie had a phenomenal march 15
Last edited Wed Mar 16, 2016, 09:33 PM - Edit history (1)
Despite Bernie Sanders losing all five states in last nights primary contests, hes within striking distance of Hillary Clinton. And if Sanders wins the upcoming Western primaries, he could erase Clintons lead and become the new front-runner for the nomination.
At the end of the night, Hillary Clinton increased her delegate lead by about 100, still leaving Sanders plenty of room to eliminate her advantage in the 24 remaining states. A candidate needs 2,383 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination, and as of March 16, Clinton only has 1,132 delegates to Sanders 818. Less than half of the pledged delegates have been selected thus far.
snip
Furthermore, its most important to note that going into these favorable states, Bernie Sanders only needs 58% of the remaining pledged delegates. And considering he picked up 67.7% of the vote in Kansas, 64.3% in Maine, and a thundering 86.1% in his home state of Vermont shutting out Clinton entirely from the 15% delegate threshold this is not as impossible as the doomsayers predict.
He also squeaked above the 58% figure with 59% of the vote in Colorado and 61.6% in Minnesota, and he scored a respectable 57.1% in Nebraska. He received 60% back in New Hampshire and has come in virtual ties in many other states outside of the South thus far, meaning hes beaten the target a total of six times.
Sanders also continued to bolster his argument for electability in the general in tonights contests. Among groups that hold special significance in general elections, like young voters and independents, Sanders performed particularly well. For example, 70 percent of independents in Illinois voted for Sanders over Clinton. And despite Clinton pulling out a narrow win in Illinois, Sanders still won the under-45 bloc by a vast margin:
more at the lin k:
http://usuncut.com/politics/bernie-sanders-worst-states-behind/
sorry for forgetting the link!
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,534 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)cosmicone
(11,014 posts)It is Tom Cahill's column ... the twin of HA Goodman separated at birth
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)New York, California, Pennsylvania will be 55-45 Hillary victories I am afraid....
liberal_at_heart
(12,081 posts)upaloopa
(11,417 posts)That comes after NY and the other states that Hillary will win by large margins as she did last night.
When June 7 comes because of Hillary's recent wins and my hard work Bernie will need about 90% of the vote in CA to get anywhere near the nomination.
As it is he needs about 70% of the rest of the states. That just ain't happening.
Nor will Hillary's super delegates support Bernie.
He can stay in as long as you all send him money but he will not win the nomination.
oasis
(49,339 posts)cosmicone
(11,014 posts)That is like saying Saturn is within striking distance of my slingshot.
Tarc
(10,475 posts)You win by...winning. Sander would have to blowout Clinton 60-40 in many upcoming states, esp some of the big prizes..CA, PA, NY...to overtake her. That is very unlikely.